#74: GSW @ UTA 3/31/10

PostThoughts -- Jazz 128, Warriors 104

While the Golden State Warriors will learn how to compete on the road again someday, that process just isn't going to start in Salt Lake City. This was every bit the drubbing that it looked to be when the season schedule came out.

Say this for the Dubs: offensively, their hearts were in the right place. They attempted 26 three-pointers and shot 42 free throws, and when you spend that much time in high-value situations, you're likely to win. The Warriors made only four of those threes, and didn't fare well from two-point land either... only Chris Hunter hit half of more of his shots, and he only took four of them. A teamwide cold-shooting night isn't a problem. The problem is that on a cold-shooting night, you have to do some other things -- defense and rebounding and such -- and the Dubs got outrebounded by 22 and let the Jazz record 37 assists.

The Warriors used their 45th starting lineup, extending their miserable league record. Also, that soft "click" you heard yesterday was the door slamming shut on Stephen Curry's ROY chances... his weak line, combined with Tyreke's 20/7/13 showing in Minnesota, has pretty much sealed the deal. Weep not for Stephen Curry, America. This team has several dozen bigger problems.

Back home tomorrow night for a sprint with the Knicks, and then it's off on the season's easiest road trip. The Warriors aren't likely to run the table and match last year's (thoroughly shitty) record, but winning three of eight and getting Nellie atop Mt. Wilkens should be more than doable. Of course, with three determined tankers nipping at their heels and a draft with a clear-cut top four, the Warriors might be well-served to crank up the suckin'. As tonight showed, they've still got plenty of it left.

Warriors SCORE Board, 3.30.10

Previous Editions: 12.21.09 • 1.10.10 • 2.08.10 • 2.17.10 • 2.23.10

We have updated the numbers and links at left. (It had been awhile... Coby Karl was still in there. Ewwww.) Now, we update the storied SCORE Board, with one tweak to our statistical recipe.

SCORE = WARP per 3000 minutes + Wins Produced per 3000 minutes + Win Shares per 3000 minutes + PER + Net Unadjusted Overall Rating

82games.com, we love you like our electronic brother from another mother, but you just don't update your Simple Rating often enough. As such, we'll now be getting our dash of plus-minus data from the dogs at Basketball Value, who revise their numbers daily. We're going to stick with the unadjusted overall figures, as several Warriors have played too few minutes to merit adjustment. There is noise in these numbers. Hopefully, the other elements of SCORE will outweigh that noise.

Notes: the NUOR (ewwww) reflects efficiency differential, not raw point differential, so the unit of measurement there is "points per 100 possessions", not "points per 48 minutes". Also, the Wins Produced data (we're using Bradford Doolittle's Wins Produced, not the Berri flavor) are oddly inflated this time around... that metric currently seems to think that every NBA player is amazing. We could toss their numbers, but the system makes a good point -- NBA players are amazing at basketball! Plus, we didn't want to have to mess around in Excel more than was necessary. For now, WP3K, you get a reprieve.

To reiterate: the proper way to interpret these results is to have complete faith in their validity and wisdom.

To the Board!

#73: GSW @ LAC 3/28/10

PostThoughts -- Warriors 121, Clippers 103

A ROAD win?! Sweet jumpin' fuck! The Dubs snapped a thirteen-game losing streak outside of Oakland in this one, and posted their first road win against a non-Nets/non-Wolves team since November.

That cold night against Dallas sure didn't seem to stick; the Warriors resumed their layup line here, and the Clips bricked a few too many to keep up. This game was very much in keeping with recent trends, as the Warriors got badly outrebounded (53-38), but scored (53.4 FG%) and passed (2.27 A/TO) with extreme efficiency. Was Monta's absence a positive? Hard to say... his net plus-minus results haven't been bad lately, and he's been around for many of the slickest offensive performances. But at the very least, one can safely say that he wasn't missed here.

Both Turiaf and Tolliver had more than twice as many points as shot attempts, which is the kind of complementary work you've gotta love. And while our man Reggie is still flying far south of his previous efficiency -- 25 points on 22 shots ain't nothin' to write home about -- seven assists against one turnover buys you a lot of goodwill around here. Curry had the kind of quiet, foul-heavy, good-but-not-great game we saw a lot from him in the season's first couple months. Given the crushing number of minutes he's received as a rookie, he's held up admirably.

As odd as it is to say about a team that's 5-30 outside of their building, the Warriors have a chance to grab another couple road wins before the season wraps up. They'll lose in Salt Lake City tomorrow, but Sunday brings a road trip replete with patsies (the Raptors, the Wizards, the Wolves, these Clippers), and the Warriors' final game is against a banged-up Blazers team that will almost certainly be resting up for the postseason. A mini-run to end the year is very possible. On a strategic level, it'd be the exact wrong time to start winning, but it'd be nice for the players to feel a little sunshine on their faces, and it'd be nice to wrap up this Nellie fiasco once and for all.

#72: DAL @ GSW 3/27/10

PostThoughts -- Mavericks 111, Warriors 90

A wild streak of high-quality offense came grinding to a halt here, with eight of nine Warriors shooting below 50% and Reggie and CJ netting a mere 13 combined points off of 28 attempts. On some level, it was just one of those nights... when Rodrigue Beaubois goes 9-for-11 from long distance, all you can do is just tip your hat to him and move on. But this game should serve as a grim reminder of the risks of predicating your attack on jump shooting. (Incidentally, the ninth Warrior did not shoot 50% or better: Ronny didn't attempt a shot in his 19 comeback minutes.)

Anthony Tolliver had an eye-popping 21 rebounds here, including an other-eye-popping eight on the offensive end. It's hard to see much upside in him, but every now and again, he has a game that makes you wonder. In a mere seven minutes, Chris Hunter contributed three rebounds, a block and a team-best +4 plus-minus, extending his strong results in the latter category. Hunter is the only Warrior who's seen the team outscore its opponents during his time on the floor this season; whether anyone in the organization is aware of that is an open question.

This was the first time the Warriors got blown out in Oracle in four months, and you never like to see your dogs go down hard at home. But when you're outstroked, you're outstroked. Hardly the most frustrating loss of the season.

The Ultimate Warrior

Last time out, we documented the Dubs' recent transition from a high-scoring, no-D team into, well, a really high-scoring, no-D team. The average Warriors game in the last three weeks has been a 124-122 loss. Several teams haven't scored or given up that many points in a single game all season... the Warriors are living there right now. The league hasn't seen a team put up numbers like those since the freak-show Nuggets of the '80s and early '90s.

Pace isn't the issue here, either. The Warriors continue to play at a league-leading pace, but their pace (100.3 possessions per contest) hasn't actually quickened lately; they're not playing faster than they were earlier in the season. The scores of Warriors games are rising because they're featured unbelievable offensive precision on both ends. The Warriors aren't shooting more often, they're making shots more often... their opponents are doing the same, to say the least.

That this streak has coincided with the rise of Reggie Williams can not be considered a coincidence. Because, make no mistake: to date, Reggie Williams has, on a per-minute basis, been one of the most effective offensive players in the league this season. His simple per-36 minute averages -- 21.2 points, 5.3 rebounds, 3.2 assists -- are nice, but they understate the quality of his contributions by a significant degree. Firstly, Reggie's True Shooting Percentage is a laughable .664... only two guys, Blazers Nic Batum and Jeff Pendergraph, rate ahead of him, and neither scores nearly as often as he does. In fact, his combo of scoring frequency and scoring accuracy is damn near historic... only ten guys have posted a .650+ TS% and a 20.0+ Usage Rate in 300 or more minutes, and six of them are named Barkley, Dantley, Gilmore, McHale, Nash and Stoudemire. Secondly, Reggie's 3.2 assists come at a cost of a mere 1.5 turnovers. The only Warrior who boasts a better assist/turnover ratio than Reggie's 2.07 mark is CJ Watson.

Essentially, Reggie has played like a more efficient Corey Maggette who can pass. And metrics that rely heavily on offensive production have noticed: Reggie's 21.0 PER would place him 22nd in the league (just ahead of Maggette, ironically enough), and his Offensive Rating of 128 (per Basketball-Reference) is higher than that of any player with enough minutes to qualify. The Dubs score 115.8 points per 100 possessions when Reggie's on the floor... only four guys have totals that high in big minutes, and they all play for Phoenix.

It's not like Reggie's just outperforming Anthony Morrow on offense. He's outperforming everybody on offense. No current Warrior -- not Curry, not Monta, not Maggette -- has ever posted across-the-board production this good. Reggie has not just been a good scorer... he's been a big-impact offensive player, a guy who systemically improves his team's offensive ability when on the floor. That's not bad for a call-up, and it suggests he'll be a big asset going forward, as long as he's not the worst defensive player in NBA history.

Sadly, we can not yet rule out that possibility. The Warriors have given up 120.3 points per 100 possessions with Reggie on the floor, an eye-poppingly horrible number... the next-worst mark on the team, Devean's, is miles behind at 113.8. No full-time NBA player has a mark worse than 115.8 (the three worst finishers, as you might imagine, are all Raptors). And thus, for all of his offensive magic-making, Reggie has not made a big impact on the team's ability to compete. In the thirteen games since Reggie signed, the team has been outscored by 4.1 points per 48 with him on the floor and by 6.5 points with him on the bench... the current Warriors are a little better when he plays, but only a little, and still well south of good. Because some of the offensive pixie dust he sprinkles on the Warriors lands on the other team, as well.

When Reggie Williams is on the floor, everybody can make a shot, and nobody can make a stop. Putting Reggie Williams into a Warriors game is like pouring gasoline on a grease fire. He's like the dudes at the end of "Desperado", the guys you call in when there's no other option but to burn the village to the ground. He has shown himself to be the living embodiment of all that the franchise loves... he is the most Warriory Warrior to ever walk the face of the earth. All hail Reggie Williams. All hail the ultimate Warrior.

Catchup: Games #65-71

Apologies for the recent radio silence. Look, sometimes fantasy baseball just happens. You've been there, dog... don't hate.

It hasn't been an uneventful time; like a bleary-eyed and recently shot Agent Cooper, we are a bit overwhelmed by the flood of news emanating from Oakland. Don Nelson has tipsily claimed he wouldn't mind coaching summer league. Raja Bell has finally relinquished his inexplicable hold of a roster spot. Stephen Curry has finally broken his "injured Warrior" cherry. Chris Cohan has finally acknowledged an interest in ending our long regional nightmare. And to top it all off, the good guys have played some more basketball games! Since we last checked in, they have

• beaten the Raptors 124-112, on a rare night where both Curry and Monta excelled;

• lost a 124-121 heartbreaker to the Lakers with a classic mix of heartening and head-scratching play;

• topped the Hornets 131-121 behind a trio of career nights from D-League alums;

• gotten stomped 147-116 by the Spurs, making their 24th straight loss in San Antonio one to remember;

• lost a 123-107 snoozer in Memphis, extending their road losing streak to 13;

• been edged 133-131 by the Suns, with a bone-rattling Amar'e dunk summing up the season nicely, and

• won a 128-110 semi-laugher against the Grizzlies, making Memphis the first good team to lose to the Dubs twice.

This was an absurd stretch of basketball, with scads of highlights, lowlights and moments of interest, and had we not been so busy assembling a juggernaut of an f-ball squad (Lincecum, Greinke and Johan --we'll talk later), we'd have very much enjoyed putting these games under our usual nerdy microscope. But time keeps on slippin' into the future [synthesizer solo], and we mustn't dally overlong in the past. So let's examine this heptet of games as a block. What did the Warriors do well? What did they do poorly? What trends are worth noting?

#64: POR @ GSW 3/11/10

PostThoughts -- Blazers 110, Warriors 105

In some ways this was a typical loss, the kind we saw all too often in December and January: death by smallball, an open-and-shut case of bad coaching. In other ways, though, this broke the mold of Warriors futility we've seen in recent years.

As Kevin Harlan et al helpfully reminded us, the Blazers had not won in Oracle since 2004. Through the good, bad and ugly of the past six seasons, the Warriors had held serve against Portland; the offensive talent and home court advantage were always just enough to keep a decent team at bay. And that looked to reman the case through the first three-and-a-half quarters last night. As it turns out, however, this Warriors team is bound for even lower depths. Oracle is not the salve it once was... the few bright spots are winking out, one by one. This team is fucking AWWWWful.

The key numbers from last night: 43 minutes total for non-perimeter players, a 53-36 rebounding deficit, 2 poor performances from the supposed team leaders, 31 fouls (24 by the starting lineup alone), 6th straight loss, and an attendance of 17,308 and dipping, dipping, dipping.

Ladies and gentlemen, your Golden State Warriors. Pity the collegian that has to wade into this swamp next fall.

The Warriors and Truthiness

This weekend saw the largest edition yet of the MIT Sloan Sports Analytic Conference, an annual gathering of the nerds that provides a rare high-profile moment for APBRmetricians. Many of the people whose work we've linked to -- Hollinger, Simmons, Pelton, Paine, Sill -- were in attendance, as were former Dub Avery Johnson and noted Barry son Brent. Not in attendance? Anyone currently affiliated with the Warriors. Some attendees estimated that as many as 16 of the 30 NBA teams (including most of the best teams) sent representatives to the conference; no one saw any sign of an envoy from Oakland.

This is not surprising, but it is nevertheless dispiriting. Given the wealth of geek talent in the Bay Area and the storied successes of Billy Beane's analytic work just down the road, there is no team that should have cottoned to advanced statistics more quickly than the Warriors. Instead, they continue to languish in ignorance; while most intelligent front offices were keeping an eye on Cambridge, Larry Riley and his comrades twiddled their thumbs. And so, on the day that BP's Kevin Pelton announced he was now working as a consultant for the Pacers, the Warriors lost their third game in a row. On the day that the conference itself took place, the Warriors lost their fourth in a row. And on Monday, while the basketball cognoscenti buzzed over the statistical insights of the weekend, the Warriors lost number five.

This goes beyond the little on-court efficiencies that statheadedness can add. For a franchise as rudderless as this one, a refusal to reckon with the realities of the statistical record is a refusal to deal with reality itself. And indeed, we have seen some decision-making and signaling from Oakland that evokes all the intelligence and clearheadedness of the previous presidential administration. Every day, this team drives home the lesson that you can't spell "Warriors" without "W".

Let's take a trip down Memory Lane here in Worrierville and revisit some of the team's more harmful '09-'10 delusions:

D-cisions, D-cisions

This summer, whilst sifting through the wreckage of the season, the Golden State braintrust will have to fish or cut bait on several players, by either extending a qualifying offer (if not something more generous) or by letting them walk. The Warriors will clearly work to keep Anthony Morrow in hand, and will at least make an effort to keep C.J. Watson around. More interesting, if less important, will be their decisions on the D-League dudes. To hear the always-brilliant Hoopdata tell it, the Warriors would need to spend $1.25 million to retain Anthony Tolliver and $1.03 million to retain Chris Hunter. Reggie Williams is still on his initial ten-day contract; if the Dubs lock him up for the year, he'd be in line for a similar $1+ M qualifying offer.

Let's screen these scrumptious scrubs. Who should the Warriors retain? Who will they retain?

Chris Hunter

Per 36: 12.1 points (.501 TS%), 7.6 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.2 turnovers, 0.5 steals, 1.7 blocks, 6.8 fouls

Positives: Hunter's been able and willing to mix it up underneath, on a team that's sorely needed that -- his shot-blocking numbers are solid. His foul frequency is not necessarily a negative, as he's been explicitly deployed as an enforcer at times; if any Warrior should have a high foul rate, it's Hunter. He's passed pretty well for an inexperienced big, and he gets to the line decently often given how rarely he shoots. He seems like a prince of a guy. And his on-court/off-court stats and his RAPM showing indicate that the Warriors have been more effective on both ends when Hunter has played...

Negatives: ...in minutes too scant and context-dependent to draw any conclusions with confidence. Things we can conclude with confidence: Hunter is neither a frequent nor an efficient scorer, and he's a significantly below-average rebounder for a center. That's not a combo you like to see.

Should They Re-Sign Him? Probably not. The plus-minus data suggests that he may be a bit better than his production, but no bigs with production like this ever rise to the level of "good". It wouldn't be a tragedy to plant him at the very end of the bench... there are worse players in the league. There are also better ways to spend a million bucks.

Will They Re-Sign Him? Doubtful. Expect his bench big spot to go to a vet, for better or (in the case of another Mikki type) for worse.

Anthony Tolliver

Per 36: 12.5 points (.502 TS%), 7.5 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.1 turnovers, 0.7 steals, 0.8 blocks, 2.9 fouls

Positives: Tolliver is a stretch four, an extremely valuable type of player in the current NBA. Like Hunter, he seems to be a well-liked and high-character guy; like Hunter, he fares quite well by plus-minus. And he boasts some surprisingly good results in small areas: he's done an impressive job of avoiding fouls for a big man, and his 1.96 assist/turnover ratio is the second-best on the best behind CJ's. Tolliver is a piece that seems to fit the Warriors well.

Negatives: Trouble is, he's really not much of a piece; even with his occasional big games, he posts scoring and rebounding numbers that are essentially identical to Hunter's (though as a four, the rebounding bar for Tolliver is not quite as high). Tolliver would need to be an elite three-point shooter to be really interesting, and with a .333 mark in college, a .371 mark in the D-League and a .338 mark in the NBA, there's no real indication that he is one.

Should They Re-Sign Him? An unenthusiastic yes. Floor-stretching bigs, even bad ones, have their uses.

Will They Re-Sign Him? Yes. And given the risk that he'll get playing time over superior players in Randolph and Wright, it may be a re-signing Warriors fans come to despise.

Reggie Williams

Per 36: 19.4 points (.595 TS%), 4.6 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 1.5 turnovers, 0.6 steals, 0.3 blocks, 1.8 fouls

Positives: THIS GUY'S FUCKING AWESOME!!!!!!!!!!

Negatives: It's only been five games. There's no indication that he can play any defense whatsoever. The Warriors have over eighty other swingmen, all of whom can score.

Should They Re-Sign Him? Without question. All of the quibbles above are relevant: the sample size is tiny, he looks to be a horrible defender, and he plays a position that's already laughably overstocked as it stands. But bad teams need to stockpile assets, and Williams, a guy who has excelled and over-achieved at every level in Curry-like fashion, looks for all the world like an asset. The Warriors should lock him in for next season and worry about the details later.

Will They Re-Sign Him? Probably... he plays the style that the team (over)values. However, we can't rule out the possibility that the front office will idiotically refuse to renounce the rights to Devean George or Raja Bell, forcing Williams back into the minors (and, in short order, onto another NBA roster).

#63: GSW @ NOH 3/8/10

PostThoughts -- Hornets 135, Warriors 131

A blast of a loss. That's not to say these losses don't hurt... it would've been nice to see the guys' effort be rewarded with a win at some point during this road trip. But in the scheme of things, with Wall and Turner looming ever larger, an outcome like this is damn near optimal. Morrow, Devean and REGGIE~! all had comically effective games. Curry did not, and has quietly posted five poor performances in his last six outings... however, the kid's gassed beyond belief and receiving more defensive attention than he ever has, so it's probably nothing to worry about.

Given the all-around hot shooting and decimation of the front line, it's forgivable, but worth noting all the same: the Warriors' total of 23 rebounds was the lowest total by any NBA team in a game this season. And if you're wondering, yes, dem Dubs are again on pace to be the worst-rebounding team in league history, edging Nellie's Warriors of twenty years ago.

Winless though it was, this was probably the Warriors' best-played road trip of the year: four competitive performances against good teams, with the only dud coming in one of the three or four least winnable games of the season. Thursday brings a four-game homestand that looks breezy in comparison, with three beatable opponents (Portland, Toronto, these Hornets) and zero back-to-backs. Even with lottery balls in mind, it'd be nice to see the Warriors take two of these four games. The players and fans deserve a few smiles, even if Cohan and his cohort do not.