#64: POR @ GSW 3/11/10

PostThoughts -- Blazers 110, Warriors 105

In some ways this was a typical loss, the kind we saw all too often in December and January: death by smallball, an open-and-shut case of bad coaching. In other ways, though, this broke the mold of Warriors futility we've seen in recent years.

As Kevin Harlan et al helpfully reminded us, the Blazers had not won in Oracle since 2004. Through the good, bad and ugly of the past six seasons, the Warriors had held serve against Portland; the offensive talent and home court advantage were always just enough to keep a decent team at bay. And that looked to reman the case through the first three-and-a-half quarters last night. As it turns out, however, this Warriors team is bound for even lower depths. Oracle is not the salve it once was... the few bright spots are winking out, one by one. This team is fucking AWWWWful.

The key numbers from last night: 43 minutes total for non-perimeter players, a 53-36 rebounding deficit, 2 poor performances from the supposed team leaders, 31 fouls (24 by the starting lineup alone), 6th straight loss, and an attendance of 17,308 and dipping, dipping, dipping.

Ladies and gentlemen, your Golden State Warriors. Pity the collegian that has to wade into this swamp next fall.

The Warriors and Truthiness

This weekend saw the largest edition yet of the MIT Sloan Sports Analytic Conference, an annual gathering of the nerds that provides a rare high-profile moment for APBRmetricians. Many of the people whose work we've linked to -- Hollinger, Simmons, Pelton, Paine, Sill -- were in attendance, as were former Dub Avery Johnson and noted Barry son Brent. Not in attendance? Anyone currently affiliated with the Warriors. Some attendees estimated that as many as 16 of the 30 NBA teams (including most of the best teams) sent representatives to the conference; no one saw any sign of an envoy from Oakland.

This is not surprising, but it is nevertheless dispiriting. Given the wealth of geek talent in the Bay Area and the storied successes of Billy Beane's analytic work just down the road, there is no team that should have cottoned to advanced statistics more quickly than the Warriors. Instead, they continue to languish in ignorance; while most intelligent front offices were keeping an eye on Cambridge, Larry Riley and his comrades twiddled their thumbs. And so, on the day that BP's Kevin Pelton announced he was now working as a consultant for the Pacers, the Warriors lost their third game in a row. On the day that the conference itself took place, the Warriors lost their fourth in a row. And on Monday, while the basketball cognoscenti buzzed over the statistical insights of the weekend, the Warriors lost number five.

This goes beyond the little on-court efficiencies that statheadedness can add. For a franchise as rudderless as this one, a refusal to reckon with the realities of the statistical record is a refusal to deal with reality itself. And indeed, we have seen some decision-making and signaling from Oakland that evokes all the intelligence and clearheadedness of the previous presidential administration. Every day, this team drives home the lesson that you can't spell "Warriors" without "W".

Let's take a trip down Memory Lane here in Worrierville and revisit some of the team's more harmful '09-'10 delusions:

D-cisions, D-cisions

This summer, whilst sifting through the wreckage of the season, the Golden State braintrust will have to fish or cut bait on several players, by either extending a qualifying offer (if not something more generous) or by letting them walk. The Warriors will clearly work to keep Anthony Morrow in hand, and will at least make an effort to keep C.J. Watson around. More interesting, if less important, will be their decisions on the D-League dudes. To hear the always-brilliant Hoopdata tell it, the Warriors would need to spend $1.25 million to retain Anthony Tolliver and $1.03 million to retain Chris Hunter. Reggie Williams is still on his initial ten-day contract; if the Dubs lock him up for the year, he'd be in line for a similar $1+ M qualifying offer.

Let's screen these scrumptious scrubs. Who should the Warriors retain? Who will they retain?

Chris Hunter

Per 36: 12.1 points (.501 TS%), 7.6 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.2 turnovers, 0.5 steals, 1.7 blocks, 6.8 fouls

Positives: Hunter's been able and willing to mix it up underneath, on a team that's sorely needed that -- his shot-blocking numbers are solid. His foul frequency is not necessarily a negative, as he's been explicitly deployed as an enforcer at times; if any Warrior should have a high foul rate, it's Hunter. He's passed pretty well for an inexperienced big, and he gets to the line decently often given how rarely he shoots. He seems like a prince of a guy. And his on-court/off-court stats and his RAPM showing indicate that the Warriors have been more effective on both ends when Hunter has played...

Negatives: ...in minutes too scant and context-dependent to draw any conclusions with confidence. Things we can conclude with confidence: Hunter is neither a frequent nor an efficient scorer, and he's a significantly below-average rebounder for a center. That's not a combo you like to see.

Should They Re-Sign Him? Probably not. The plus-minus data suggests that he may be a bit better than his production, but no bigs with production like this ever rise to the level of "good". It wouldn't be a tragedy to plant him at the very end of the bench... there are worse players in the league. There are also better ways to spend a million bucks.

Will They Re-Sign Him? Doubtful. Expect his bench big spot to go to a vet, for better or (in the case of another Mikki type) for worse.

Anthony Tolliver

Per 36: 12.5 points (.502 TS%), 7.5 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.1 turnovers, 0.7 steals, 0.8 blocks, 2.9 fouls

Positives: Tolliver is a stretch four, an extremely valuable type of player in the current NBA. Like Hunter, he seems to be a well-liked and high-character guy; like Hunter, he fares quite well by plus-minus. And he boasts some surprisingly good results in small areas: he's done an impressive job of avoiding fouls for a big man, and his 1.96 assist/turnover ratio is the second-best on the best behind CJ's. Tolliver is a piece that seems to fit the Warriors well.

Negatives: Trouble is, he's really not much of a piece; even with his occasional big games, he posts scoring and rebounding numbers that are essentially identical to Hunter's (though as a four, the rebounding bar for Tolliver is not quite as high). Tolliver would need to be an elite three-point shooter to be really interesting, and with a .333 mark in college, a .371 mark in the D-League and a .338 mark in the NBA, there's no real indication that he is one.

Should They Re-Sign Him? An unenthusiastic yes. Floor-stretching bigs, even bad ones, have their uses.

Will They Re-Sign Him? Yes. And given the risk that he'll get playing time over superior players in Randolph and Wright, it may be a re-signing Warriors fans come to despise.

Reggie Williams

Per 36: 19.4 points (.595 TS%), 4.6 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 1.5 turnovers, 0.6 steals, 0.3 blocks, 1.8 fouls

Positives: THIS GUY'S FUCKING AWESOME!!!!!!!!!!

Negatives: It's only been five games. There's no indication that he can play any defense whatsoever. The Warriors have over eighty other swingmen, all of whom can score.

Should They Re-Sign Him? Without question. All of the quibbles above are relevant: the sample size is tiny, he looks to be a horrible defender, and he plays a position that's already laughably overstocked as it stands. But bad teams need to stockpile assets, and Williams, a guy who has excelled and over-achieved at every level in Curry-like fashion, looks for all the world like an asset. The Warriors should lock him in for next season and worry about the details later.

Will They Re-Sign Him? Probably... he plays the style that the team (over)values. However, we can't rule out the possibility that the front office will idiotically refuse to renounce the rights to Devean George or Raja Bell, forcing Williams back into the minors (and, in short order, onto another NBA roster).

#63: GSW @ NOH 3/8/10

PostThoughts -- Hornets 135, Warriors 131

A blast of a loss. That's not to say these losses don't hurt... it would've been nice to see the guys' effort be rewarded with a win at some point during this road trip. But in the scheme of things, with Wall and Turner looming ever larger, an outcome like this is damn near optimal. Morrow, Devean and REGGIE~! all had comically effective games. Curry did not, and has quietly posted five poor performances in his last six outings... however, the kid's gassed beyond belief and receiving more defensive attention than he ever has, so it's probably nothing to worry about.

Given the all-around hot shooting and decimation of the front line, it's forgivable, but worth noting all the same: the Warriors' total of 23 rebounds was the lowest total by any NBA team in a game this season. And if you're wondering, yes, dem Dubs are again on pace to be the worst-rebounding team in league history, edging Nellie's Warriors of twenty years ago.

Winless though it was, this was probably the Warriors' best-played road trip of the year: four competitive performances against good teams, with the only dud coming in one of the three or four least winnable games of the season. Thursday brings a four-game homestand that looks breezy in comparison, with three beatable opponents (Portland, Toronto, these Hornets) and zero back-to-backs. Even with lottery balls in mind, it'd be nice to see the Warriors take two of these four games. The players and fans deserve a few smiles, even if Cohan and his cohort do not.

#62: GSW @ CHA 3/6/10

Charlotte Bobcats

Record: 29-31 (20th) • Point Differential: +0.4 (15th) • Pace: 90.6 (27th)

Off. Efficiency: 103.6 (t-25th) • eFG: 48.8 (t-21st) • TO: 17.3 (30th) • OReb: 25.9 (20th) • FT/FG: 25.8 (t-3rd)

Def. Efficiency: 103.1 (6th) • eFG: 49.5 (t-12th) • TO: 16.9 (3rd) • OReb: 25.4 (8th) • FT/FG: 20.0 (t-3rd)

PreThoughts

The Warriors' road record is what one might call "gross" -- at 4-26, they're exactly one game ahead of the Nets. Winning away from home is no easy feat for a young and undermanned team, but if you ever want to be worth a damn, you've got to break through and beat the odds every now and again. Today, against a flawed and slumping Bobcats team, seems as good a time as any. Last time the Dubs came to this building, Jamal Crawford lit 'em up for fifty.

On the other hand, the Warriors' last game against these fuckers was none too pretty. The 'Cats are a game out of eighth, and will be plenty motivated. And they excel at coaxing turnovers and fouls out of their opponents, two things the Warriors have been all too happy to relinquish. Plus, you've got to figure Jack wouldn't mind clowning the Dubs again in front of his new fanbase. The Warriors will need a very big night from someone to pull out a win here.

This game features an interesting X-factor: Curry and Morrow grew up in Charlotte. Morrow got eight shot-free minutes in the Warriors' visit last year, but both will essentially be appearing in their hometown as established NBA players for the first time. Will they excel in front of their loved ones, or buckle under the pressure?

Warrior To Watch: Stephen Curry, who has again wrested this label away from all comers for a bit.

Bobcat To Watch: Tyrus Thomas, a Randolphian enigma who has profited greatly from his recent change of scenery. We can only hope that our skinny shot-blocking goofball will not require the same transition.

#61: GSW @ ATL 3/5/10

Atlanta Hawks

Record: 39-21 (6th) • Point Differential: +4.8 (t-5th) • Pace: 90.8 (26th)

Off. Efficiency: 111.3 (4th) • eFG: 50.2 (t-11th) • TO: 13.0 (1st) • OReb: 27.6 (t-6th) • FT/FG: 21.9 (t-20th)

Def. Efficiency: 106.0 (13th) • eFG: 49.8 (16th) • TO: 15.7 (12th) • OReb: 27.0 (19th) • FT/FG: 20.5 (t-6th)

PreThoughts

Let's see here... on the road, against a good team that's playing well and sore over losing to the Warriors two weeks ago? Yeah, this'll be a long one. At least we're likely to get some more sweet Reggie Williams action... Maggette may be back, but doesn't figure to play much.

Warrior To Watch: Stephen Curry, who has yet to put up a really effective game in this sans-Monta go-around. With Mike Bibby and Jamal Crawford guarding him, that could easily change tonight.

Hawk To Watch: Joe Smith, just for a nostalgic chuckle.

#60: GSW @ ORL 3/3/10

Orlando Magic

Record: 41-20 (3rd) • Point Differential: +5.8 (3rd) • Pace: 92.7 (t-15th)

Off. Efficiency: 109.3 (9th) • eFG: 52.6 (3rd) • TO: 15.3 (12th) • OReb: 23.6 (26th) • FT/FG: 25.0 (t-6th)

Def. Efficiency: 103.1 (4th) • eFG: 47.7 (t-3rd) • TO: 14.1 (26th) • OReb: 22.7 (t-1st) • FT/FG: 20.8 (8th)

PreThoughts

As poetic as we've been waxing about the current Warriors lineup, there's just no way to forecast a competitive game here. The Magic are 23-6 at home, and only one of those six losses came at the ends of a sub-.500 team... the Wizards caught them on a Caron Butler buzzer-beater in a wacky game last month. These guys don't wreak much havoc on the offensive boards, but they do everything else very well. And since both Atlanta and Boston are within three games of catching Orlando for the second seed in the East, the Magic still have plenty to play for. The Warriors would need monster shooting nights from both Curry and Morrow to take this one, and even that might not do it. Tonight, the Magnificent Eight are simply outgunned.

Warrior To Watch: Chris Hunter. Someone will need to man up to Dwight Howard, and Ronny just doesn't have the beef to do it. Hunter does, and he's shown a willingness to smack big intimidating dudes. Look for a nice hard first-half foul to get the Warriors fired up.

Magician To Watch: Dwight Howard. He still isn't good at hitting free throws and passing out of double teams... that's an attackable combo. But the Warriors don't have enough bodies to play Hack-A-Howard, so he could have a pretty monster night.

The Magnificent Seven Ride Again?

The few Golden State fans that are masochistic enough to watch every game witnessed an unexpected treat last spring -- some competitive play from an unheralded and undermanned group of guys. Azubuike, Crawford, Kurz, Morrow, Randolph, Turiaf, Watson... these were not names that struck fear in the hearts of men. And yet this heptet, with occasional help from more ballyhooed guest stars like Monta and Biedrins, keyed a three-game winning streak and an inspiring win in Salt Lake City before running out of gas with two games left to go. These guys moved the ball well, they defended gamely, and they functioned well as a unit. They exceeded expectations, and were damn entertaining in doing so. Bay Area media wags dubbed this ragtag bunch The Magnificent Seven.

Something similar seems to be brewing on this road trip. Curry, George, Hunter, Morrow, Tolliver, Turiaf, Watson... it's another punchless-sounding lineup, even with a ROY contender in the mix. Combined, these seven guys make 11.1 million dollars, barely more than Monta Ellis makes by himself. But these seven rate as the most effective court presences on the team. These guys have been successful in their limited time on the court together. And last night, in a season marked by near-historic incompetence on the road, these guys were a few bricks away from toppling a likely playoff team in their building. The most fun stretch of '09-'10 Warriors basketball may be unfolding before our eyes.

In addition to the loveable CJ/Morrow/Ronny trio, this unit has four key traits in common with the Magnificent Seven of yesteryear:

#59: GSW @ MIA 3/2/10

Miami Heat

Record: 29-31 (18th) • Point Differential: +0.7 (14th) • Pace: 90.2 (28th)

Off. Efficiency: 105.5 (21st) • eFG: 48.9 (t-20th) • TO: 14.4 (t-6th) • OReb: 26.0 (19th) • FT/FG: 21.8 (22nd)

Def. Efficiency: 104.8 (10th) • eFG: 48.2 (7th) • TO: 16.0 (t-8th) • OReb: 25.1 (6th) • FT/FG: 25.8 (25th)

PreThoughts

The Heat have lost four in a row, and have fallen into a virtual tie with the Bobcats for eighth in the conference... this is a must-win game for them. The Warriors are 4-23 on the road. The available Golden State roster tonight consists of Li'l Stephen Curry, a banged-up Ronny Turiaf, a long-dead Devean George, and five players the Warriors have acquired either from the D-League or the waiver wire.

And yet, this game could be interesting. For if you managed to slog through our previous post, you may have noticed something: besides the debuting Reggie Williams, the seven Warriors suiting up tonight are the team's seven most effective players, according to regularized adjusted plus-minus. And the most likely starting lineup tonight -- Curry, CJ, Morrow, Tolliver, Turiaf -- has been monstrously effective, outscoring opponents 147-101 in its 57 minutes of court time to date.

Now, there's some flukiness in those numbers, to be sure... a Curry/CJ/Morrow/Tolliver/Turiaf lineup probably won't average 123 points a game long-term, and especially not against a rock-solid defensive team like the Heat. There's no real reason to expect a win tonight. But the guys that will be playing during this road trip have played very, very well together. Don't be surprised if the Dubs are more competitive on this road trip than they've previously been.

Warrior To Watch: Reggie Williams, who, with Curry, gives the Warriors the leading scorers in college basketball from each of the last three seasons. He'll get plenty of minutes from jump street... can he show enough to earn himself a job somewhere in the league next year?

Heatperson To Watch: why, it's Dwyane Wade, you silly goose!

More Fun With Hoop Numbers!

Early in this blog's e-life, we looked at the regularized adjusted plus-minus numbers calculated by Joe Sill at Hoop Numbers; these are the most-adjusted bad boys you'll find kicking around the Web. Happily, Sill has provided a mid-season update, and now lists RAPMs through the games of February 25th. That encapsulates every Warriors game except for Saturday's survival of the Pistons. So it seems a fine time to take a gander at how dem Dubs are faring by this system. Specifically, we'll be looking at the four-year time-weighted data. More seasons of data help to reduce the system's margin of error... even when looking at rookies, you can rate them more confidently when you know more about the histories of their opponents and teammates.

The question this metric essentially asks: "how effective is this player in the role he's been given?" An RAPM of 1.000 means that the player's presence improves his team's point differential by 1 point per 48 minutes; an RAPM of -1.000 means the player's presence degrades his team's point differential by 1 point per 48 minutes. Those may sound like small effects, but they're not... a net point per 48 equates to about three wins over the course of a season, so in a vacuum, a 1.000 RAPM guy would be about six more wins more valuable than a -1.000 RAPM guy. The vast majority of NBA players have RAPMs between 2.000 and -2.000. In the four-year data, no player rates worse than -4.000... only two players rate better than 4.000, those being Dwight Howard (4.717) and LeBron (a brain-breaking 6.046).

Hoop Numbers helpfully splits each guy's results into offensive RAPM and defensive RAPM. We'll take a look at the offensive side of the ledger first... the "Rank" column lists each guy's overall NBA ranking in the category. We'll confine our scrutiny to the players who are still on the roster, so there'll be no beating of the dead horse that is Mikki Moore. As with any stat, grains of salt are recommended -- sample size issues exist for spot-minute guys like Hunter and Tolliver, in particular.

Lineup Lunacies

Want a shorthand way to explain how crazy things have gotten in Oakland? Don't bother looking at the Warriors' record, or rebounding futility, or fouling proclivities, or Monta's ineffectiveness, or the passel of 48-minute nights by individual players. If you want to get a vivid sense of Don Nelson's "Beautiful Mind"-style devolution into basketball madness, just take a gander at the Warriors' list of starting lineups over the last two seasons.

Now, injuries have, to be sure, hampered Nellie's choices. And tweaking lineups is nothing new for the big fella. After taking over for Jim Clemons in Dallas in 1997, Nellie used 35 different lineups in the team's final 66 games... even in '07-'08, an unusually healthy and stable season in Oakland, Nellie used 23 different lineups, one of the league's higher figures that year. He's nothing if not a tinkerer. But there's a difference between tinkering and what we've been seeing for the past sixteen months. The 2008-09 Warriors fielded 47 different quintets to open games, easily breaking the previous NBA record of 42 (recorded in Larry Brown's surreally awful season with the Knicks). Nellie only used one lineup -- Monta/Crawford/Jack/Buike/Beans, if you're curious -- as many as five times, and he used that lineup only five times.

This year, things have gotten even crazier. In their 58 games, the Dubs have already used 34 lineups -- no other team has used more than 25. The Warriors have fielded only one starting lineup more than three times, and eight of the ten starts of that lineup (the grim Curry/Monta/Morrow/Vlad/Mikki quintet) were commissioned by Keith Smart. Which means that -- yes, your math is correct -- Don Nelson has not used a single starting lineup more than three times this season. He's used four different lineups thrice, six different lineups twice, and 24 different lineups only once.

In his 48 games, Nellie has used 34 different starting lineups. In the last 13 games alone, he's used 12 different starting lineups, more than half the teams in the league have used all season. Nellie has used two starting lineups (Monta/Morrow/Buike/Jack/Mikki, Curry/CJ/Cartier/Maggette/Vlad) that share zero players in common. And seventeen different players -- everyone who's played more than 67 minutes this season -- have started at least once under Nellie.

The Warriors' injuries, plus the trade of Stephen Jackson, created unavoidable turmoil... circumstances have necessitated some lineup changes. They have not necessitated this. If Nellie had opened the box and done something crazy like playing the best available player at each position every night, the Warriors would've used a total of only fifteen lineups thus far. There was never a game where Nellie needed to start Coby Karl or Cartier Martin or Devean George or Chris Hunter. There were only two games on Nellie's watch where there was a compelling reason to start either Vlad or Mikki, and there was never a compelling reason to start both.

Starting lineups do not tell the whole story, and smarter use of them wouldn't be any kind of panacea. But you simply can't look at the Warriors's starting fivesomes over the last 140 games and find any semblance of a coaching plan. Simply put, Don Nelson is bored, and has been screwing around to amuse himself. With a new scorer aboard, the madness won't be ending anytime soon.

Oakland's Newest Reggie

The Dubs' D-Leaguer deluge continues! Scott Schroeder of Ridiculous Upside reports that the Warriors will be signing Reggie Williams to a ten-day contract on Tuesday. Williams, a 23-year-old VMI alum, is a offensive-minded three (he led the nation in scoring in both his junior and senior years), and will more than likely be playing the role of Corey Maggette for the next five games.

Schroeder likes the signing -- in fact, he thinks the team whiffed by choosing Cartier Martin over Williams back in January. In a January rundown of D-League prospects, BP's Kevin Pelton rated Williams as the league's most promising small forward and the league's most promising overall scorer. In 31 games with the Sioux Falls Skyforce, Williams has scored efficiently (.576 FG%, .410 3P%, .824 FT%) and often (26.4 points per game). Reports on his D are mixed, and (per Pelton) his rebound rate doesn't translate well to the NBA. Still, as scrap-heap guys go, this seems like a good one.

The Warriors will surely get their money's worth out of him... Nellie gave Cartier 27.6 minutes a night, and Williams can actually get the ball in the basket, unlike Cartier. This DraftExpress description certainly makes the kid sound like he's up the fat man's alley. Williams isn't likely to outlast his contract, but if he posts some big nights, who knows? Maybe he'll finally convince the Dubs to abandon their sad delusions of Raja Bell being either able or willing to help them next year.

#58: DET @ GSW 2/27/10

Detroit Pistons

Record: 21-37 (23rd) • Point Differential: -4.3 (25th) • Pace: 88.4 (29th)

Off. Efficiency: 104.0 (25th) • eFG: 46.4 (29th) • TO: 15.4 (14th) • OReb: 31.0 (2nd) • FT/FG: 21.8 (22nd)

Def. Efficiency: 108.9 (21st) • eFG: 51.0 (23rd) • TO: 16.2 (7th) • OReb: 26.4 (17th) • FT/FG: 27.1 (29th)

PreThoughts

The Warriors' second-longest homestand of the season ends here. In fact, while nobody was looking, the schedule tipped decidedly in the other direction; after this game, the Dubs will have played 31 times in Oakland and just 27 times elsewhere. (Cross "tough schedule" off the franchise's long list of attempted excuses.) The Warriors have gone 2-3 on this Oracle tilt so far -- the wins were both thrilling in their respective ways, and a victory over the Pistons would be enough to call this homestand a relative success.

The Pistons are not exactly what you'd call tough customers, either. In the teams' last meeting, Detroit prevailed, rising to a record of 11-12... they lost their next thirteen games, however, and now rate worse than the Dubs by point differential. The Pistons feature most of the same defensive flaws as the Warriors, letting opponents score efficiently from the field and often from the line. And while the Warriors shoot fairly well from the field, the Pistons shoot worse than any team that's not based in New Jersey.

However, the Pistons have somewhat stabilized of late, winning six of twelve. Richard Hamilton, overrated and overpaid though he may be, has re-found his form... he's been Detroit's top scorer in each of their last six games, averaging 27.2 points per contest in that span. And the one area in which the Pistons rate well -- offensive rebounding -- is the one area that has most kneecapped the Warriors this season. The Dubs will need a healthy dose of Andris Biedrins in this game to have a chance. Let's hope that he and Nellie allow that to happen.

Warrior To Watch: Stephen Curry, who's earned this label for the foreseeable future. Can he finally post two excellent games in a row?

Piston To Watch: Tayshaun Prince, who's been logging heavy minutes for over a month now, quieting fears about his back problems. The Pistons will look to shake up their roster this summer, and a Maggette package for Prince is a (longshot) possibility the Warriors should pursue.

#57: DEN @ GSW 2/25/10

PostThoughts -- Nuggets 127, Warriors 112

Best game of Stephen Curry's career, bar none. He exhibited high-level playmaking against a good team for the first time, scored 30 points on 19 shots, and recorded his seventh straight 6+ rebound night, to boot... he's averaging 7.7 boards over that span. I am not yet drinking the "superstar" Kool-Aid, but it's starting to catch my eye when I browse the metaphorical basketball food product aisle.

Also, watching Anthony Morrow shoot threes is the purest joy in Warriors fandom. Also, good job, Nellie! You turned Biedrins into an airballin' pile of Jell-O. Also, nice to see the Dubs launching 24 times from three-point land. It only took them 57 games to realize they should play like underdogs. Other than that, nothing to see here... this was the moderately big home loss one would've expected.

The Warriors lag four games behind their pace from last year, and have now slipped a game behind the pace of the '04-'05 team, whose Baron-fueled season-ending hot streak started in game #57. Eric Musselman's teams never dipped nearly this low. In fact, the last time the Dubs fell to 16-41, Brian Winters was on the bench. So while it may be fun to dream on Curry and his fellow young 'uns, let's be clear about what we're seeing here. This is the most incompetent Warriors team in eight seasons.

#56: PHI @ GSW 2/23/10

PreThoughts

Tonight's game features the rare opponent that can match the Warriors in chaos. The Sixers have been switching schemes, trying to dump Iguodalas, and alternating brilliant games with wretched ones. They've recorded a twelve-game losing streak and a five-game winning streak, something few teams can say. And in their last three games, they've lost to the Heat by 27, beaten the Spurs by 12, and lost to the Bulls by 32. If you can figure them out, more power to you.

This matchup resulted in a memorably ugly game last time around, as the Dubs lost big and got out-rebounded by an NBA season-high 33. But tonight features a different cast of characters on both sides. The Warriors have replaced Mikki, Vlad, Randolph and Maggette with Biedrins, Tolliver and (probably) Ronny... it's hard to imagine they'll struggle that badly on the boards again. The Sixers have Lou Williams in place of Iverson, a swap that'll make the Golden State guards' jobs tougher, as both his style and his numbers are reminiscent of Monta's better, Baron-era play. Curry & Monta vs. Lou & Jrue is a midget tag-team match that could headline Arena Mexico.

The Sixers don't do anything all that well on either end, so it's a thoroughly winnable game. But with these two enigmatic teams, who knows -- a 30-point blowout win by either wouldn't be all that surprising.

Warrior To Watch: Stephen Curry. Would be nice to see him string a couple great games in a row.

Sixer To Watch: Andre Iguodala. You've thought about trading Monta for him... let's see how they fare against each other tonight.

Warriors SCORE Board, 2.23.10

Previous Editions: 12.21.09 • 1.10.10 • 2.08.10 • 2.17.10

Our formula remains the same, but this time out, we're going to excise 'Buike, Randolph and Vlad and zero in on the ten Warriors we've seen lately.

Stephen Curry has scrapped his way into second place on our SCORE Board, undoubtedly one of the proudest achievements of his young career. CJ's hot week also has him on the rise. Turiaf, meanwhile, has stumbled a bit, and now ranks below Anthony Tolliver both by three of our five metrics and in total. And there's even less consensus about Monta's season than ever; PER and Doolittle's WP3K rate him as one of the two most effective players of these ten, while Simple Rating and Win Shares deem him one of the two least effective guys listed here. By the latter system, Monta's 2,073 minutes of court time have resulted in exactly 0.0 Offensive Win Shares... Raja Bell's 23 minutes resulted in 0.1. Ouch.

The overall picture remains the same: Maggette's been really good, George and Hunter have been really bad, everyone else is milling around somewhere in the middle. Curry should only continue to rise, though, as 82games has yet to incorporate the last week's worth of data. By this time next week, he may have distinguished himself as the second most-effective player on the team. Curry probably won't catch Tyreke for Rookie of the Year, as there may not be enough time to close the scoring gap, but second place is now his to lose. And considering how quiet Curry's numbers were through the end of '09, that's saying a helluva lot. It's too early to call the kid a savior, but he's looking pretty damn good.

#55: ATL @ GSW 2/21/10

PostThoughts -- Warriors 108, Hawks 104!!!

A belated recap of a beloved game...

What a difference a finish makes. For more than three quarters, this game was a haunting reminder of Warrior flaws. Curry passed poorly; Monta was sloppy and got dominated by a bigger guard; Nellie dumbly kept his foot on the smallball pedal during the traditional third-quarter nightmare. Twelve minutes later, the Warriors have scored their first victory over a plus-.500 team since 2009 and Oracle is a-rockin' like Baron and Jessica Alba were still in the building.

If Curry keeps scoring like that, it won't matter one whit if he sometimes struggles to make plays for other guys. If Monta keeps showing that grit, he'll be able to survive the Joe Johnsons of the world. And if Nellie is willing to extend his creativity in both directions -- for instance, if he's willing to play two centers alongside one another when size is of utmost importance -- he won't be the outright detriment he's so often been lately. None of the Warriors' problems have magically disappeared. This was just one game. But what a game.

Curry has deservedly gotten a ton of praise for his performance, but three guys deserve special mention: Biedrins, Hunter and CJ. The two big men played like two big men, and CJ did some flawless complementary work, once again showing off his newfound flair for driving into coverage.

Tomorrow night brings the Sixers, and a chance to win back-to-back games for the first time since Randolph went down. Let's hope some of this mojo carries over... with this team, it's never a given.

Curry vs. Monta #1: Pop Quiz

Curry vs. Monta is sweeping the nation! The Curryers believe that Monta is holding a young man back from greatness; the Montamaniacs contend that Monta's the better player and that the rookie is receiving plaudits he doesn't deserve. Tempers are flaring... bipartisanship seems impossible. Mark Russell is probably composing a killer parody about this conflict as we speak.

It's a complicated situation in the Warrior backcourt, and the numbers don't make things any clearer. To demonstrate, here's a quiz for you folks at home. Without consulting stat sites, see how many of the following questions you can answer correctly. Answers after the jump.

1) The '09-'10 Warriors have outscored their opponents overall during which guard's time on the floor?

2) Which Warrior guard has been the most effective at converting at the rim?

3) Which Warrior guard has materially improved the team's defense this season?

4) Which Warrior guard has a better assist/turnover ratio than Chauncey Billups, Andre Miller and Brandon Jennings?

5) Which Warrior guard has the fewest turnovers compared to the number of positive plays he makes?

6) Which Warrior guard has the highest True Shooting Percentage?

7) Which Warrior guard has scored most effectively late in the shot clock?

8) Which Warrior guard has recorded more steals per personal foul than all but eight other NBA players?

9) Which Warrior guard has accumulated the most Win Shares on a per-minute basis?

10) Which Warrior guard has the 16th-best one-year adjusted plus-minus rating in the entire NBA?

#54: UTA @ GSW 2/19/10

PostThoughts -- Jazz 100, Warriors 89

...and it warn't nearly that close. Brutal game.

Curry was horrible, folks... don’t bother pretending otherwise or trying to blame it on Monta. The Jazz defense ate him alive, and the fact that he was on the floor during a garbage-time run initiated by others doesn’t mean he provided some magical pixie dust. He played losing basketball tonight. Now, that’s okay — it’s just one game. But pretending that Curry’s flaws aren’t flaws is no better than pretending that Monta’s flaws aren’t flaws.

Monta stank too, and clearly shouldn’t have been playing; Maggette doesn’t look right either, and Morrow had his worst game since returning. Biedrins was fantastic, however, and besides Ronny, the bench did an excellent job all around. This was a loss to a very good, intelligent, dangerous team. Again: it’s not that big a deal.

But if you watched this game and came out of it feeling hunky-dory about Don Nelson, you weren’t watching very carefully. Dog is on absolute auto-pilot right now. I watched the Jazz feed of this one for a chuckle, and their announcers sounded embarrassed for the Dubs. They had to do all this awkward tap-dancing around the fact that there’s clearly no coaching going on in Oakland.

I can live with a non-winning team. I liked the Musselman years just fine, as at least we saw the best those teams could do. We haven’t seen the best this current team can do. It might not be very good, but it’s damn well better than this underachieving, directionless, woe-is-me garbage. Get... Nellie... the fuck... gone.

Deadline Headlines

1) Antawn Jamison might get a ring! That'd be fantastic. One of the league's truly nice people, and the first good player in the Cohan era to commit to staying in Golden State (for all the good it did him). When the playoffs begin, we are all Ohioans.

2) A million teams did things, the Warriors didn't. And that's just fine. It would've been nice to dump Maggette's contract or get some value for CJ, but it's much nicer to know that Randolph, Biedrins, Monta et al are safe for the time being.

3) That's not to say that this deadline didn't hurt the Warriors a bit. The Kings, Clippers, Grizzlies, Blazers and Rockets -- seeds #8, #9, #11, #12 and #13, in a conference where the Warriors are #14 -- significantly helped their futures this week. Thoughts of competing in the West are more fanciful than ever. Only the Wolves have a darker outlook than the Dubs, and even they could sprint ahead with the right amount of Ricky Rubio Pixie Dust™.

4) Talk of a Mayo-for-Monta offer that the Warriors turned down has been racing around the Oakland-area Internet. As strange as it sounds to say, this is pretty much a non-story. Mayo would neither significantly help nor significantly hurt the Warriors going forward... that trade would be a real lateral shrug of a move, that wouldn't come close to undoing all the ills that Nellie hath wrought. And seeing as Monta is a Memphis pseudo-local, and neither team will be a buyer this summer, it's trade that can easily be revisited in the future. Dubs fans, we have bigger things to worry about.

5) Larry Riley needs to get rid of Raja Bell, ASAP. The Warriors' desire to re-sign him is cute, but he's just not going to extend with a crappy, swing-heavy team... at some point, you have to acknowledge reality and see sunk costs for what they are. It's time to buy the guy out and go fishing in the D-League for another prospect. If you're building for the future, do so honestly.

#53: SAC @ GSW 2/17/10

PreThoughts

On a night when most NBA eyes are on either the trade ticker or on lists of '10-'11 cap commitments, two sad-sack and tired teams will do battle by the Bay. The Kings are no strangers to the Oakland faithful, and this won't even be the first game this year that the Warriors face the Kings without Monta available. To be honest, it feels like this game has already happened dozens of times already. The season's really starting to drag.

While thoroughly beatable, Sacramento's won two of three and pushed Boston to the limit just last night. They're not going to exhibit the same curl-up-and-die mentality the Clippers did. To win, the Warriors will not only need Steph Curry's stroke to come back... they'll need his offensive creativity to start making things happen in the halfcourt. They'll also need Biedrins and Turiaf to outproduce the Kings' frontline, which'll require the acquiscence of both Nellie and the zebras. As with so many Warriors games of late, staying out of foul trouble, both on a team and an individual level, will be critical.

Warrior To Watch: you'll inevitably be watching Curry, so remember to keep an eye on Anthony Morrow. Is he simply on a hot streak, or is he starting to find his shot in a sustainable way?

King To Watch: Jon Brockman. Only the Kings' third-best rookie, but a bruiser who'd do the Warriors a world of good. For all their vaunted dips into the D-League and elsewhere, the Warriors can never grab a hold of effective bangers like this guy.

Warriors SCORE Board, 2.17.10

Checking back in with our award-winning, universally beloved, literally perfect rating system...

Three players are on the rise since last time out. Anthony Morrow's splendid production of late has him hot on Monta's heels; Turiaf is working his way up the rankings, and is now tied with his European Union brother; Tolliver's career night against the Clips has elevated him from the ranks of the other scrubs. On the flip side, Maggette's fall back to earth shows up in the numbers, Biedrins continues to fare horribly by Wins Produced (the Doolittle version) and plus-minus metrics, and Devean George's grumpy old man bit has lost what scant luster it once had.

Bottom line is, these Warriors are all over the map. The five metrics that combine (like VOLTRON) to comprise the SCORE system are only unanimously positive about Corey Maggette... every other player gets panned at least somewhere. WARP ain't feeling no Anthony Morrow; Wins Produced turns up its nose at Biedrins, Randolph and Azubuike; Win Shares wouldn't wipe its ass with Monta Ellis. There's a bizarre lack of consensus about the relative values of these guys, far less consensus than you'd find about the players on other teams.

There are two reasons for this. One is the Warriors' unusually flat talent curve; the gap between their best player and their ninth-best player is smaller than for any other team. The other is the bizarre usage patterns on display in Oakland, where several hyper-efficient scorers rarely touch the ball. These metrics all weigh the importance of usage rate differently, which accounts for a lot of the skew... Win Shares doesn't ding Morrow much for his low shooting frequency, but it drives WARP up the wall. It seems safe to say that this is not the SCORE Board of a properly functioning team. But next time around, maybe we'll examine another roster's performance to clarify that.