#52: GSW @ LAL 2/16/10

PostThoughts -- Lakers 104, Warriors 94

The Warriors' sixth road loss in a row (do people realize they haven't beaten a top-28 team on the road since November?) was never really as close as the score would suggest; when Sasha Vujacic and Adam Morrison are on the floor together in the second quarter, you know your opponent isn't taking you very seriously. The Lakers pulled away with ease every time things got interesting. Still, not the worst effort we've seen of late. CJ perked up for the first time in a while, and Morrow continued his strong and surprisingly aggressive play -- in the four games since he returned, he's averaging 21.8 points on .570 shooting, 6.3 rebounds and 3.5 assists. He's making a dump of Maggette's contract look like even more of a no-brainer than it already was... this guy should be getting consistent starter minutes to round out the year.

Curry was just flat-out bad here, getting eaten alive in the halfcourt and reverting to his silly slappin' ways on D. It's just one game, but then, so was his last one. The jury's still out on his ability to beat a defense that's paying attention to him.

Mercifully, this road trip is complete... the Dubs are already en route to Oakland, and tomorrow they kick off a six-game homestand that features three beatable opponents. Next month won't be kind -- incredibly, fifteen of their sixteen March opponents are .500 or better -- so if the Warriors want to give their fans something to smile about, now's the time.

Let's Make A Deal

The Broussardian revelation that the league's best team has interest in Corey Maggette is exciting, to say the least. But here's the thing: a ball-dominant small forward is not exactly the kind of thing the Cavs are lacking. While Maggette is very good at what he does, his skill set doesn't marry all that well with Cleveland's current attack. Sure, he could provide offensive focus when LeBron's off the floor, but considering that LeBron has averaged about 44 minutes per playoff game over the course of his career, do they really need a B-team stud?

The Cavs may like Corey Maggette, but they'd love a big man. As such, the Warriors should offer them one. The Warriors should propose Corey Maggette and Ronny Turiaf for Zydrunas Ilgauskas. Like, now.

I love Ronny Turiaf. Love. He is my dirtiest dog; he is my brother from another mother. But let's be clear: there's not much point in a terrible team holding onto a consummate complementary piece like Ronny Turiaf. Ronny was put on this earth to be the third guy off the bench for a Finals contender, which is exactly what he was before the Warriors got their grubby off-brand paws on him. Ronny Turiaf on a 14-37 team is like a maraschino cherry on top of a cowpie. He can help the good get a bit better; he can't help the bad get good.

If the Warriors traded Maggette and Turiaf for expiring money, their '10-’11 roster would look like this:

Monta Ellis ($11M)
Andris Biedrins ($9M)
Vladimir Radmanovic ($6.9M)
Kelenna Azubuike ($3.4M)
Brandan Wright ($3.4M)
Stephen Curry ($2.9M)
Anthony Randolph ($2.0M)
Anthony Morrow ($1.0M cap hold/qualifying offer)
TOTAL: $39.6M

In other words, the team would have seven promising young players locked in (Monta, Biedrins, Curry, Randolph, ‘Buike, Wright, this summer's draft pick), plus Vlad (every rose has its thorn)… before extending Morrow, the Warriors could fit in a free agent who costs around $10 million. The Dubs could top the MLE, and in this free agency market, that could be worth something. Could it net you a David Lee or a Boozer? Who’s to say — quite possibly not. But it’d be an interesting amount of space in an interesting summer.

So, yeah. If I’m the Warriors, I double down here. I offer Ronny along with Maggette and promise to buy out Z within seconds. This is the trade; this is the moment; this is the window. The Warriors need to try their hardest to make this happen.

Golden State's Ten Best Assets

In the spirit of the holiday, and inspired by Tom Ziller's similar rankings at Sactown Royalty... tonight, we talk about how much we love these Warriors of ours. Let's list the ten most valuable players on dem Dubs in order, factoring in production, potential and price.

1. Anthony Randolph ('09-'10: $1.8M | '10-'11: $2.0M | '11-'12: $2.9M | '12-13: RFA)

In this, his age-20 season, Anthony Randolph averaged over 18 points, over 10 rebounds, and over 2 blocked shots per 36 minutes. Since '73-'74 (the first season for which blocks were counted), you know how many other twenty-year-olds have done that? Two. You know who they were? Shaquille O'Neal and Chris Webber. If you're anything other than monstrously excited about this kid, you need to look again... no other Warrior even approaches him in value as a commodity. Don't be stupid, people.

2. Stephen Curry ('09-'10: $2.7M | '10-'11: $2.9M | '11-'12: $3.1M | '12-'13: $4M | '13-'14: RFA)

One could very reasonably make the argument that this ranking is too high. Curry has not yet made it clear that he has the playmaking ability to be an effective NBA point guard, and if he doesn't have that ability, he will never be a truly great player... he doesn't have the size or athleticism to excel at the two on either end. He's been awfully good for a rookie, though, and he's cheap and under team control for a good long while. That's enough to get him up here.

3. Andris Biedrins ('09-'10: $9M | '10-'11: $9M | '11-'12: $9M | '12-'13: $9M | '13-'14: $9M Player Option)

A very good center who'll make under ten million dollars a year through at least 2013. The Warriors do need to convince him to eschew his Latvian commitments and spend the summer working on his free throws, but that should be more than doable.

4. Monta Ellis ('09-'10: $11M | '10-'11: $11M | '11-'12: $11M | '12-'13: $11M | '13-'14: $11M Player Option)

Much more star potential than Biedrins, but much more downside, too... Monta has never been a truly effective NBA player without Baron Davis by his side, and he's a guy that most playoff teams can post up. He'd probably have the edge over Biedrins if their salaries were equal, but they ain't.

5. Brandan Wright ('09-'10: $2.7M | '10-'11: $3.4 M | '11-'12: $4.6 Qualifying Offer or RFA)

If this franchise ever wriggles free of Nellie's Jabba-like stranglehold, someone may notice a second intriguing young power forward on the roster (and no, this one's not Tolliver either). Questions remain about Wright's ability to stay healthy and his ability to play solid man D, but a 22-year-old that compares favorably with LaMarcus Aldridge is nothing to sneeze at. The Warriors are in position to hang onto him long-term if they care to... the '10-'11 season will make their choice clear. By this time next year, Wright will either be higher on this list or off of it entirely.

6. Anthony Morrow ('09-'10: $736K | '10-'11: $1.0 M QO or RFA)

If Wright does fall off the list, whether via injury, trade or ineffectiveness, Morrow will be battling this year's draft pick for the remaining spot in the top five. The Warriors are actually in fairly good bargaining position Morrow-wise, as his extended cold streak basically ensured that he wouldn't put up enough counting stats to earn a big payday. Something like $18M over four years could get it done, and would be money well-spent; Morrow's a more well-rounded player than most seem to think.

7. Ronny Turiaf ('09-'10: $4.1M | '10-'11: $4M | '11-'12: $4.4M Player Option)

Ronny seems to garner more interest around the league than any other Warrior around the deadline, as he'd make a perfect bench big for a contender and comes fairly cheaply. That interest would probably lessen if other teams got a look at his messed-up knee... still, he's a piece that intrigues. Barring a miraculous reversal of Warrior fortunes, Ronny is best considered a trade chip next year. He's not a good bet to exercise the option to stay, no matter how famously he and Biedrins get along.

8. Kelenna Azubuike ('09-'10: $3.1M | '10-'11: $3.4M | '11-'12: UFA)

'Buike can technically opt out this summer, but isn't likely to... he's very likely to jump ship next summer, though, as the Warriors have no leverage over him. A good and intriguing young player, but like Ronny, his value to the Warriors lies in what they can get for him.

9. C.J. Watson ('09-'10: $1.0M | '10-'11: UFA)

Has made it more than clear that he wants to move on, and who can blame him? If he's still a Warrior come Friday, it'll reflect poorly on Larry Riley. This asset is not long for this world.

10. Corey Maggette ('09-'10: $8.9M | '10-'11: $9.6M | '11-'12: $10.3M | '12-'13: $10.9M | '13-'14: UFA)

Ah, the damage an overpay can do. Maggette has been the Warriors' best player by far this season, and is no worse than their third-best even in a sane world. Chop off that fifth year, or two million bucks out of each year, and he's a prize... as it stands, no team will give up anything they want for him. He's barely an asset on the books, but he's still a big asset on the court. And while the Warriors have young 'uns that could fill in for him, maybe it won't be the end of the world if the Warriors have to keep him around for awhie.

Golden Sate

Owen has ably put forth diagnoses and prognoses, and what with the formidable SCORE, the Franchise Fixes, and various other useful screeds, I thought it time to take a step back...way back. I ascribe the motivation for this post at least in part to my contempt for NBA All-Star weekend. The following is a theoretical survey of what each Golden State Warrior would be like to eat. Disclaimer: I have not actually tasted the flesh of any of these men.

Kelenna Azubuike
Robust flavor and superior tonus make Azubuike a familiar face. Speaking of which, his face is the best part.

Raja Bell

The elusive Bell is mildly enjoyable sun-dried, but that's about it these days, unfortunately.

Andris Biedrins

This towering bundle of limbs should be high on anyone's list. He's lithe, tan, lean, and almost certainly has a very low free radical count. Any season, any style: the man is delicious.

Stephen Curry

Sweet to the point of cloying, the temptation with Curry is always to eat too much. Should not be given to children more than twice a year.

Monta Ellis

Tough, sinewy, gamey and face-meltingly spicy, Ellis tempts and tortures even the most adventurous taster.

Devean George

George is alternately doughy, grainy, and chewy, with a peanut buttery finish, and he sets off the histamines like you wouldn't believe.

Chris Hunter

Filling, but deeply unsatisfying. Something like horseflesh or bad brisket. If you're chewing on Hunter you've got bigger problems than food.

Corey Maggette

With subtle marbling and tenderness that can't be matched, Maggette is as much a status symbol at this point as a true meal option. Still, in the right circles you'll find him cubed and wrapped in thyme or layered with squab and partridge in a mosaic of autumn game. Just be prepared to pay through the nose.

Anthony Morrow

Morrow is best enjoyed in the preprandial cool of the evening with a glass of JW Black and Perrier. Perhaps the best-kept secret in the NBA harvest, snap some up in August before he's all gone.

Vladimir Radmanovic

Almost impossible to get down, and seemingly rancid at times. Radmanovic has been varyingly described as something akin to bear cooked in nitrogenous loam. Alleged psycho-narcotic properties mean you can find him if you try, but be advised that some roads lead in only one direction.

Anthony Randolph

Stringy and bitter, with hints of truffle, Randolph is an acquired taste, to be sure. For a good first impression, pair with a fresh navel orange and a handful of pine nuts.

Anthony Tolliver

Tolliver is unique on this team in that he tastes absolutely awful, but brings to the table chew profile and mouthfeel nonpareil. Old couples, with their inferior olfactory and gustatory senses, appreciate him more than most.

Ronny Turiaf

With the highest per-serving quantities of iron, fiber and riboflavin of any Warrior, Turiaf is unquestionably the best for you. Even vegetarians have been known to sneak a few bites to minimal erosion of pride.

C.J. Watson

Light and silvery, Watson leaves you feeling fresh and invigorated, almost like you never even ate him. For this reason, he is exceedingly popular with well-heeled American and Brazilian women.

Brandan Wright

There's not a whole lot of meat on this bird, but no matter; if you're after Wright, you're after offal. His heart is excellent, as is his pancreas. I also hear fine things about his pituitary gland.

Don Nelson

There was a time when this whale could feed a nation. Now, alas, the meat is pulpy and sallow. If you have to, head for the small of the back, and marinate for at least a week in tarragon vinegar. Serve cold.

Location, Location, Location

The raddest new stat site on the scene is Hoopdata, which has churned out plenty of good stuff in its five-month existence. And one of their most useful features is their collection of shot location data -- you can see how often and how well various teams shoot from various locations. It's worth examining the Warriors' results in this department, as shot selection is one of the many aspects of the game that the team is badly mishandling.

Let's take the Warriors' shooting results zone by zone... as we go, we'll compare them to the results of the average NBA team. (Due to their fast pace, the Dubs have more total field-goal attempts per game than other teams; to account for this, we'll also list the percentage of field goals taken from each section of the court.)

At The Rim

Average NBA Team: 26.3 of 81.4 shot attempts (32.3%), .607 FG%, 51.3% assisted

Warriors: 25.5 of 85.3 shot attempts (29.9%), .641 FG%, 52.6% assisted

Immediate red flag: The Warriors' .641 FG% near the basket is the third-best in the league, and yet they take a below-average number of their shots from close range. The Dubs simply don't carve out nearly enough easy shots for themselves... more touches for Biedrins would be an obvious remedy here. The Warriors do record assists on an above-average number of field goals made at the rim, which makes sense, as both Monta and Curry have been effective at hitting cutters.

Within 10 Feet

Average NBA Team: 9.2 of 81.4 shot attempts (11.3%), .436 FG%, 39.0% assisted

Warriors: 10.6 of 85.3 shot attempts (12.4%), .441 FG%, 38.7% assisted

The Warriors take close jumpers a bit more often than the average team, but they more or less conform to the usual patterns here, making and assisting these shots at the same rates that most teams do.

10-15 Feet

Average NBA Team: 7.4 of 81.4 shot attempts (9.1%), .398 FG%, 39.8% assisted

Warriors: 6.3 of 85.3 shot attempts (7.4%), .407 FG%, 35.9% assisted

Huzzah! The Warriors actually take fewer midrange jumpers than the average team, despite making them at a presentable clip. Their assist rate on midrange jumpers is low -- not surprising, as many of them come from Maggette, Monta, Curry or CJ spotting up off the dribble -- but who cares? The smart move is to avoid low-percentage shots like these, and good on the Warriors for realizing tha--

Trade Deadline: Best-Case Scenario

The best-case scenario is that the Warriors do nothing. We should all be praying for this.

Smart trading follows one simple rule above all others: "buy low, sell high." And while the NBA features no shortage of buy-low candidates -- Ramon Sessions and Tyrus Thomas rank among the most intriguing -- very few Warriors have a higher perceived value than actual value right now. In fact, thanks to health issues and Nellie's incompetence, most Warriors are currently perceived as less valuable than they actually are. The Warriors are more or less unable to sell high.

Monta Ellis? What the guy's doing isn't working in the slightest, and other teams are aware of that... the Warriors have to get Monta Ellis functioning again before they can trade him for real value.

Andris Biedrins? Biedrins is again one of the best rebounders, best shot-blockers and most efficient field-goal scorers in the NBA, and Nellie's claiming he's hurt and is acting annoyed about having to coach the guy. The Warriors would be selling a good 23-year-old center for pennies on the dollar if they traded him right now. Does that sound smart to you?

Corey Maggette? There was a window in which the Warriors could've moved him for value, but with his injury, that window has surely closed. The team should still look to move his contract, but would be better-served to wait till the summer to do it, when other pieces fall into place around the league and his contract starts looking less burdensome by comparison.

Anthony Morrow? He's showing real signs of life for the first time all year... now, when his overall numbers are modest, is no time to trade him.

Stephen Curry? There's actually an interesting argument to be made that NBA teams are too conservative about trading rookies, for fear of the moves blowing up in their faces... the last team that moved a touted rookie in midseason, the '94-'95 Wolves, made out pretty nicely in the Donyell/Gugliotta deal. And if the Warriors could take advantage of Curry's rookie halo and move him for, say, the rights to Ricky Rubio and a dump of Vlad's contract, it might be worthwhile. But barring a monstrous-upside play like that, why move a very good young player who's improving by the month?

Kelenna Azubuike? Brandan Wright? The logic against trading these guys should be obvious. If the addition of Azubuike or Wright would allow a blockbuster deal to go through, then fine, but the Warriors are near no such deal.

Anthony Randolph? Anthony fucking Randolph? You have a 20-year-old player whose three closest comps coming into the year (per Basketball Prospectus) were Josh Smith, Tracy McGrady and Kevin Garnett, whose per-minute production this season has been equalled by only two other twenty-year-olds in the three-point era, and you're thinking about trading that guy?

There are exactly two players that the Warriors might be able to trade for value right now: Ronny Turiaf and C.J. Watson. Ronny would work better as a sweetener in a deal than as a trade chip by his lonesome; it's hard to see the move that'd be worth shipping him out for in the next six days. CJ? Okay, you could trade CJ. A trad sending CJ to the Bulls for their first-round pick, thus widening Chicago's cap space for free agency purposes, continues to look like a sensible move for both sides.

But CJ and only CJ. The Warriors have badly dampened the value of most of their players this season, and would be ill-advised to make deadline moves even if they didn't have an incompetent front office. We fans mustn't hope for deliverance next Thursday, for none will be coming. The best we can hope is that our valuable young pieces weather the storm, and that they'll still be here when Cohan, Riley and Nellie have all been mercifully put out to pasture.

Pair Essentials

Statman Jon Nichols has retired from his excellent blog, presumably for the greener pastures of some franchise or another. He emitted a pretty fun last burst of data for NBA fans to remember him by: how effective teams are with various pairs of their players on the floor. We shall sift through the Warriors' data in our usual fashion, and so's we don't drown, we'll restrict things to the eight guys that matter the most: Biedrins, Morrow, Randolph, CJ, Maggette, Monta, Ronny and Curry. (Nichols posted these charts on January 25th, so these numbers represent each pair's results through the Dubs' first 42 games.)

First thing to note: Biedrins's results are pretty wacky across the board, and given the small number of minutes he'd played with some of the guys, it's probably not worth taking his numbers seriously. The Warriors are not actually doomed to offensive failure when Biedrins takes the court with Randolph or CJ; they performed well enough when he played with those guys last year.

The most interesting results here involve the divergent patterns in the backcourt. The pairings of Curry with the Warriors' best weapons -- Morrow, Maggette, Randolph, Biedrins --lead to good things for the Warriors' offense. The pairings of Monta with those guys do not... of the six other guys, only Turiaf shows equal results with Monta as he does with Curry. And worrisomely, Monta is Curry's least effective offensive pairing.

#51: LAC @ GSW 2/10/10

PreThoughts -- Warriors 132, Clippers 102

Daaaaaamn!

Fantastically fun game, with actively strong play from all six Warriors who got real minutes. I’m not gonna jump on the “trade Monta” bandwagon because of one hot-shooting game, but it sure was nice to see how well the ball moved tonight.

The Warriors' centers need a ton more props than they’ve been getting lately. Biedrins and Turiaf combined for 23 points on 11 shots, 11 boards, 2 blocks, 7 assists, 0 turnovers and a quiet Chris Kaman tonight, and it’s not like this is the first time they’ve combined for elite production in the last couple weeks. These guys are assets. It was great to see Tolliver’s shot finally fall… you really had to feel happy for the guy. And CJ was low-profile but effective in his 48 minutes, which is really hard to do.

Curry was, needless to say, spectacular. There’s no reason to pretend that he played a perfect all-around game, because he didn’t — six turnovers from Curry are every bit as harmful as six turnovers from Monta, and he got beat a good bit on D even before he was trying to avoid fouls — but the things he did well, he did reeeaaaally well. The kid should be getting 15 shots a night, and should be getting the ball in transition situations whenever possible.

The other guy who needs more shots, more minutes, more credit, more everything? Anthony Morrow. For while it’s true that the offense flows better with Monta off the floor, it’s also true that the offense flows better with Morrow on it… he stretches a defense, he passes willingly, and he’s starting to become a bit of a scrapper near the basket. He’s been an enormous factor in these last couple games, and if he keeps rebounding, passing and creating offense like this, things could get really damn interesting around here.

Nellie coached a fine game, for the same reason that he usually coaches better when the Warriors are short-handed: he doesn’t have the leeway to make stupid decisions. When all he’s able to do is play guys at their normal positions for long stretches, he doesn’t get in the way nearly as much with counterproductive mismatches. It’s sad that it takes injuries to stop him from being a terrible coach, but at least something does the trick.

It’ll be very interesting to see what happens when the two big scorers come back after the All-Star break.

#50: DAL @ GSW 2/8/10

PreThoughts

Corey Maggette's dislocated finger will keep him out until after the All-Star break, effectively dashing all hopes of trading him. Also planning on dashing our hopes tonight? The Dallas Mavericks! They continue to scuffle, having failed to beat Minnesota two days after comfortably handling us, and again won't have Dubs alum Erick Dampier available to help their weak offensive rebounding. If Andris Biedrins can avoid whistles and Nellie's gin-soaked disdain, he can keep the Mavs off the glass pretty capably here. But Maggette's absence, combined with the fact that Dallas rarely sends its opponents to the line, means that the Warriors will have to execute intelligent team offense to have a chance here. That's not the kind of thing they've excelled at lately.

Warrior To Watch: Anthony Morrow... in this new Maggette-less world, he'll get as many minutes as his healed knee can handle. Swish and fist-pump and take away the pain, you beautiful man.

Mav To Watch: Drew Gooden, a fringy big who's looked like an All-Star in his two games against the Golden State Lilliputians this years. Someone -- Ronny, Tolliver, maybe Hunter -- needs to slow this guy down.

Warriors SCORE Board, 2.08.10

A new month brings new tweaks to our patented SCORE system. The February formula:

WARP per 3000 minutes + Wins Produced per 3000 minutes + Win Shares per 3000 minutes + PER + Simple Rating

Three win-based ratings of of a player's effectiveness, topped with the efficiency stat du jour, and flavored with 82games's shorthand metric to taste. The latter provides the noisiest and least reliable information of the five measurements, but as most NBA players rate within a couple points of par, we're not going to worry much about its potential to distort things. (While we have interest in the adjusted plus-minus data listed at Basketball Value, they seem to be having some trouble with their calculations today; we'll give them a gander next time. Also, it's worth noting that we're using Bradford Doolittle's formulation of Wins Produced here, not Dave Berri's.)

How do our Warriors fare by this new accounting? And how does the system itself fare?

Corey Maggette's hot streak has ended, but his dominance in these metrics has not: he's still the Warriors' MVP by just about any way you measure. Azubuike and Randolph's starts still rate highly... 'Buike's poor showing in WP3K is largely due to the Warriors' poor performance when he was on the floor, which has more to do with sample size issues and Jack-related miseries than any mistakes he was making. Monta rates a good bit behind those guys, but a good bit above everyone else. Intuitively, that sounds about right.

Below those four, Curry, Biedrins, Morrow, CJ and Ronny are all clustered in a pretty tight group of fair-to-middlin' performers. The system prefers Curry's (relative) volume scoring over CJ's ball-handling, and Biedrins's production over Ronny's good plus-minus totals...both of these preferences seem sound. The various metrics disagree strongly about some of these guys -- Biedrins is more than four times more valuable than CJ by WARP, but less than half as valuable by Wins Produced -- but they all rate Curry just about the same, as a slightly below-average performer.

Finally, SCORE thinks that the four guys who stink, stink... most other players who've passed through (Mikki, Cartier, Coby) would also rate down here. Ineffective scrubs have not been the story of the Warriors' season, as some apologists would like to pretend, but they certainly haven't helped. To be fair, some better shooting could get Anthony Tolliver out of this cellar relatively quickly.

Overall, this new-look SCORE accounting checks out pretty good... if you subjectively wanted to rank the Warriors from most effective to least effective, your order would probably look a lot like this one. The rankings hew very closely to PER, but that doesn't necessarily mean we're overweighting it; adjusting the formula by halving PER inches Ronny ahead of CJ, but otherwise doesn't affect the ratings at all. We Worriers are satisfied. This newer, simpler formula will be our standard going forward, and we will update the SCOREBoard every Monday(-ish) forthwith.

Hungry For The Wolves

The Warriors' first-half record of 13-28, while pretty damn bad, was nothing we haven't gotten used to around here. In fact, that record actually represented a one-game improvement over last season's feeble pace. And since the team ended Act One playing its best basketball of the season -- in games #29 through #41, they outscored their opponents by an average of 1.3 points -- Act Two looked like it might be a little less painful.

Surprise, motherfucker! The Warriors are winless in the second half. They've been outscored by over nine points per night. Their overall 13-36 record is their worst showing through forty-nine games since '99-'00. (If you don't remember that season, 1) count yourself lucky, and 2) imagine a team much like the current one, except that the young guard that takes all of the shots is Larry goddamned Hughes.) And the Warriors have quietly moved within shouting distance of the second-worst record in the NBA. Minnesota has won four games in a row, and now stands tied with the Dubs in the all-important win column.

Some may spin this as a positive. And indeed, the case can be made. The second-worst team in the NBA will have a 19.9% chance of grabbing John Wall, while the third-worst team will have only a 15.6% chance. The second-worst team is assured of a pick no lower than fifth, and the way this draft is shaping up (something we'll discuss ere long), the gap between five and six could be a sizeable one. At this point, it's hard to muster up much of an argument against tanking.

But let's be perfectly clear about this. The Warriors are now closer to being the second-worst team in basketball than they are to being the fourth-worst team in basketball. The Kings have lost eighteen of their last twenty and still haven't been able to get within two games of the Warriors (in part because the Dubs were one of the two chumps the Kings actually beat in that span). Mike Dunleavy just got the axe, in a move that all observers deemed justified... his Clippers are seven and a half games ahead of Nellie's boys. Even the Nets have won a game in the second half already, and they've played their opponents a helluva lot tougher than the Warriors these last two weeks. And while all the "Golden State D-Leaguer" comments are cute, it's worth noting that Monta Ellis, Andris Biedrins, Corey Maggette, Stephen Curry, Ronny Turiaf, C.J. Watson and Anthony Morrow -- in other words, the Warriors' three best players and seven of their ten best -- all played against the Thunder on Saturday. If you think that merits sympathy, you might want to keep it to yourself the next time you're around a Blazers fan.

Not all lost seasons are created equal. In the last two weeks, the Warriors have gone from scrappy, loveable losers to just plain losers... they have just plain quit. And as much as I'd love to see John Wall head our way, I have trouble believing that the universe will reward ugliness like this.

The Speedy Claxton Affair

You probably heard about this. The Warriors' decision to cut bait on Speedy Claxton's expiring contract less than two weeks before the trade deadline has been pilloried, and rightfully so -- Larry Riley's game effort to defend the move to Marcus Thompson only highlighted its stupidity. But it's worth clarifying exactly why this move was so stupid.

The problem with this move was not that Anthony Tolliver is a complete waste of time. He's easily the most intriguing D-Leaguer that's come through Oakland this season, having provided non-impact but solid production... he's passed well for a big and generally avoided foul trouble, and his woes behind the arc have obscured the fact that he's shooting over 50% on two-pointers. Tolliver's a fine guy to keep around.

The problem with this move was not that it precluded some big trade from happening. The Warriors aren't in a position to snag a top-tier guy, and they shouldn't be looking to add a second-tier guy who makes a lot of money... a Caron Butler type does nothing to cure the woes of this franchise. Other than dumping Maggette's contract, which can be accomplished as easily with Raja Bell's contract as with Speedy's, there's no big-money move that the Warriors should be considering right now. You don't pay to build on top of a foundation this rotten.

The problem with this move was not that it prioritized short-term interests over long-term ones. The short-term goal of fielding a semi-credible non-embarrassment of a team should always rank high on the list of any GM... even if you're rebuilding, you owe it to your paying customers to keep up appearances. And in fact, the team's long-term interests are better served by the presence of Anthony Tolliver than by the presence of a second mid-sized expiring deal. One certainly can't bank on perfect health from either Randolph or Wright next season, let alone both, so maintaining team control over another young big is a fine idea.

The problem with this move wasn't the move itself... it was the messaging behind the move. It reveals the inconsistency and incoherence of the Warriors' front office. Because if you're willing to drop Speedy Claxton for Anthony Tolliver when you're 13-35, you should've been willing to drop Devean George for a warm body when you were 6-10. If you're actually invested in helping the current team win some games, you should've demonstrated that investment before the season was already lost. If you're not interesting in converting expiring deals into value, you should've acknowledged that to your fanbase early and often. And you really shouldn't drop hints that you're trying to land a "star player" the day before you jettison a valuable trade chip.

In a vacuum, dumping an expiring deal to take a flyer on even a middling young 'un can be a perfectly defensible decision. But this move didn't take place in a vacuum. It took place months later than it should've, and amidst constant front office hints that the Warriors were pushing hard in the exact opposite direction. This move, and the signaling that preceded and followed it, made our general manager look like a flake and a fool. Optics matter. And if Larry Riley can't even manage to waive a player without looking bad, how on earth can we expect him to negotiate skillfully with other actors?

#49: OKC @ GSW 2/6/10

PreThoughts

Oh, great... these fucking guys. Nothing much has changed since the Warriors last played the Thunder six days ago, other than a laugh-so-you-don't-cry roster blooper by the Dubs' front office that we'll examine tomorrow. The only real difference between the two games is that this one takes place in Oakland. The Warriors are a miserable 9-13 in Oracle, and on pace for their worst home record since Jason Richardson was a rookie. It'd be nice to see some backbone and homecourt pride here, but considering the team's utter inability to even slow down Kevin Durant, the Warriors have a chance tonight only in the strictest any-given-Sunday, Iron-Mike-Sharpe sense.

Warrior To Watch: Anthony Tolliver. With his contract guaranteed for the rest of the season, will he relax and finally shoot better?

Thunder To Watch: Kevin Durant... you'll have no chance, as he'll be straight-up clowning the Warriors for the eightieth straight time.

Franchise Fix #9: Approach A Coach

Franchise Fix #0: Where We're At

Franchise Fix #1: Fire A Legend

Franchise Fix #2: Let It Rain

Franchise Fix #3: Set A Date

Franchise Fix #4: Select A Core

Franchise Fix #5: Know Your Star

Franchise Fix #6: Clear The Decks

Franchise Fix #7: Work The Margins

Franchise Fix #8: Perfect Your Pitch

The Golden State Warriors are the third-worst and worst-coached team in the NBA -- our reality is achingly, hauntingly terrible. As such, the time has come to return to the soothing pastures of make-believe, where we Worriers have taken the front office reins. And it's a pleasure to recall that, in this relative utopia, we fired Don Nelson over two months ago.

To progress as a franchise, however, we will need to replace him with someone good this summer. Keith Smart has been our interim coach in WorrierWorld, and it's possible that he's shown enough there to earn the '10-'11 job, but we just can't be sure; the gauzy membrane between the dream world and ours does not allow us to see how our previous moves have been working. If it turns out that Keith Smart fits our criteria, he could well be our guy. If he doesn't, we will be forced to wish him well in his future endeavors.

So. Here are the characteristics we should look for in our next head coach.

WebWideWorries, February 5th

• Tim Kawakami argues that the Warriors should trade for big-money non-impact talent, while simultaneously pointing out that the Warriors are screwed due largely to their big-money non-impact talent. A classically incoherent column that points out the difficulty of working a contrarian gimmick: you can't simply invert every move made by a stupid team and come out smart. Writ large, Kawakami is of course correct that the franchise is incompetent. But in context, the Warriors' unwillingness to add payroll right now is unequivocally the right decision, and Kawakami just makes himself look silly by pretending otherwise.

• Stephen Curry is in the Three-Point Shootout; he and Morrow will both take part in the Rookie/Sophomore Challenge game. In general, I'm very much against the idea that Warriors fans should care about guys playing a part in All-Star Weekend... conflating the team's streak of failure with its streak of All-Star exclusions is a very dangerous mistake to make, and I'd rather not see Morrow play, coming off an injury as he is. But I regard Curry's entry in the Three-Point Shootout as a positive, as it highlights that this is the one thing he's actually been good at. He has the third-highest three-point percentage of the six guys in the contest, and a win is far from impossible.

• Kevin Pelton examines Monta Ellis's ineffectiveness, with an in-depth look at his January 15th performance against Milwaukee. Like any analysis based on a single game, it gives an incomplete picture -- Monta's production on both ends has seesawed dramatically over the course of the year -- but it's excellent analysis nonetheless.

• Speaking of Monta: 82games has updated its plus-minus data, now covering every game through Tuesday's loss to Houston. Maggette's net plus-minus is back in the black and Turiaf's is rising. On the flip side, Monta's -12.8 is worse than any NBA starter's in the last seven seasons (though Troy Murphy and Jeff Green are keeping pace with him this year). Also, Andris Biedrins now has a -5.0 net plus-minus that's roughly the inverse of Turiaf's. Both our offense and defense have been a bit less effective with Biedrins on the floor.

• It wouldn't be accurate, however, to say that Biedrins has been some sort of defensive disaster. Our opponents short worse and grab fewer offensive rebounds when Biedrins is on the floor. They commit fewer turnovers, but he grabs a good number of steals for a center, so it's hard to see how that's his fault. Our opponents get to the line a bit more often when he plays, and that is his fault... his foul rate is too high. But let's keep some perspective here, people. Our defense is crappy mainly because we can't protect our glass or our rim... pinning that on the seventh-best defensive rebounder in basketball, whose 4.5% Block Percentage places him just outside of the league's top ten, is a little bit of a stretch. Once Biedrins stops getting whistled so often, he'll revert to being the mild defensive asset he's always been.

• By Dave Berri's estimation, Corey Maggette was the league's most-improved player through the first half of the year. A commenter named Jared points out why his performance probably isn't sustainable... given Maggette's fall to earth in the past two weeks, it's hard to argue with that.

• More Maggetteology: a fun and rousing defense of the man from our friend Sherwood Strauss.

• Finally, Bradford Doolittle examines the most storied positions in NBA history, and points out that both Maggette and Biedrins walk on hallowed ground. By his estimation, the Warriors' center position (Wilt, Nate Thurmond, Robert Parrish) and small forward position (Paul Arizin, Rick Barry, Mullin) are the fifth and sixth most legendary spots in the game, ranking behind only two Celtic positions and two Laker positions. In truth, the more depressing and telling data lies in the full chart he posts at the end of the article: in its 64-year history, the franchise has never had truly historic talent at the four or either guard position. Ironic, given how perimeter-oriented the team has been in recent decades.

Trade Maggette, Already!

I'd really love to hear Craig Finn sing Corey Maggette's name. Where do you go to get that done? Is there a service where you can pay to make him sing certain syllables? Anyway, point being: it's still time to trade this guy. (Maggette, that is, not Finn -- I would NEVER trade Craig Finn.)

There's no reason to think that a fairly expensive, high-usage, bad-defense small forward will be a great fit for these Warriors anytime in the next couple years, and there's plenty of reason to think that his trade value will only go down from here. I really like Corey Maggette, and continue to think that he's badly misunderstood and underrated. But context and fit matter. And whether you're looking to buy this team or sell it, you should want that contract off the books, for expiring deals if possible. There aren't many places you can send him -- most bad teams aren't about to take on that kind of money, and most good teams are set on the wing -- but two plausible options remain, options where the Warriors would receive expiring deals in return.

1) Corey Maggette to Dallas for Josh Howard. Mark Cuban is getting antsy, and Maggette would give the Mavs needed offensive help. Their stat-nerdy front office would probably blanch at his defense more than most, but would also appreciate the value of his offense more than most. Howard's deal expires this summer.

2) Corey Maggette to Boston for expiring scrubs. The Celts would probably prefer a Hinrich type, but worth looking into. This trade would force the Warriors to waive two players to stay within roster limits, but it's getting to be that time of year... with no blockbusters on the horizon, saying goodbye to Speedy, Raja and even Devean is in the cards.

In both cases, it would be worth throwing in CJ as a sweetener if necessary. I also like CJ, but his upside isn't all that high, and the handwriting's on the wall for him here, to boot. He'll be leaving town as soon as he's able, and the Dubs should trade him for value while they can.

Larry Riley, your team is 13-35... now is no time to get timid about sucking. HOLD STEADY. Make things worse, so that they someday might get better. Trade Corey Maggette, and increase the chances that this pitiful team might enjoy a constructive summer.

#48: GSW @ DAL 2/3/10

PostThoughts -- Mavericks 110, Warriors 101

One helluva game from Monta Ellis, more good play in limited time from Andris Biedrins, some credible C.J. Watsoning from C.J. Watson, and a pile of crap from everyone else.

This game highlighted Warrior dysfunctions better than most. Monta's mind-blowing 46-points-on-23-shots performance was marred by seven turnovers, a couple of which came about via lazy, fatigued-looking perimeter passes, the others of which came about via completely predictable drives to the basket that were called charges. On a rare night when the Warriors won the battle on the boards, they settled for only a moderate win, not a blowout... Nellie steadfastly refused to take advantage of the Mavs' size, and cannily turned a big edge into a small one. Wait, that's not what "cannily" means. "Stupidly". There we go... that's better. And if you want evidence of a rudderless offense, it doesn't get much simpler than 13 assists against 20 turnovers. As a team, the Warriors passed less effectively tonight than Samuel Dalembert or D.J. Mbenga.

Steph Curry is flat-out struggling, and in ways that have nothing to do with his cold shooting... both his playmaking and defense have taken big steps backward in the last three games. Let's chalk it up to typical rookie fatigue for now, but it's worth keeping an eye on.

Seven losses in a row now, for those sad souls who are counting. But Anthony Morrow should be back Saturday, and, well... he's fun, at least.

Is Nellie The NBA's Worst Coach?

It's impossible to say. There are many aspects of coaching that we fans never see; some strategic subtleties will escape even the savvier viewers among us; our evaluations of the tools each coach has on hand -- players and their various skills -- are inevitably incomplete. You can't say with full confidence that Don Nelson's incompetence has exceeded that of, say, Kurt Rambis. You can't prove that Nellie has been the worst coach in the league so far this season.

But you can make a pretty damn good case.

Exhibit A. In third quarters, coaches make strategic adjustments based on the first half of action... on average, the third is perhaps the most coaching-intensive quarter in an NBA game. Opponents are outscoring Don Nelson's Warriors by an average of 3.8 points in every third quarter. This is not only the worst showing by any team in the third quarter, it is the worst showing by any team in any quarter... not even the Nets fare as badly in any quarter as the Warriors do in the third. When strategy becomes paramount, Nellie's teams immediately fall apart.

Exhibit B. The Warriors have underperformed their Pythagorean record by three games, thanks in large part to their incompetence in close contests. The Warriors are now 3-10 in games where either team has a chance to tie or take the lead in the final two minutes. Youth alone does not explain this, as most of the league's other young teams -- the Grizzlies, the Thunder, the Kings -- have fared far better in close games.

Exhibit C. Don Nelson's offensive weapons include Andris Biedrins, who is on pace to become the most efficient field-goal scorer in NBA history, and Anthony Morrow, who is on pace to become the most efficient three-point shooter in NBA history. Both players are shooting significantly less often this season, thanks to an offense that excludes them.

#47: GSW @ HOU 2/2/10

PreThoughts

The Warriors kick off their February slate in the hopes that this month will prove gentler than the two preceding it. For while their 6-10 showing through the end of November wasn't really anybody's idea of a good time, it was a damn picnic compared to the 3-12 and 4-11 records of December and January. With only four sub-.500 teams amongst their twelve February opponents, the team will have to show marked improvement to avoid another stinker of a month. And sadly, with Punxsutawney Phil's spotting of his own shadow, the Warriors' winter may be far from over.

Today certainly doesn't figure to signal the start of a turnaround... the Dubs have lost eleven of their last twelve road games and eight straight to the Rockets overall, including a pair of brutal losses earlier this season. Houston is no powerhouse -- they're exactly league-average in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency -- and they've been having problems of late, dropping four of five and losing Kyle Lowry to a knee sprain. But they're an intelligent and hardworking team, and that should be more than enough to get them past... whatever the Warriors currently are.

Corey Maggette's a game-time decision, thanks to a hip-pointer. If he doesn't play, it'll be only the second game he's missed all year. Keep that in mind, self-pitiers.

Warrior To Watch: Monta Ellis... the Rockets' lack of strong wing scoring should save him some energy on the defensive end. He's a decent bet to snap out of his funk here.

Rocket To Watch: Chuck Hayes, whose numbers are eerily similar to Biedrins's, considering how different their games are.