#50: DAL @ GSW 2/8/10

PreThoughts

Corey Maggette's dislocated finger will keep him out until after the All-Star break, effectively dashing all hopes of trading him. Also planning on dashing our hopes tonight? The Dallas Mavericks! They continue to scuffle, having failed to beat Minnesota two days after comfortably handling us, and again won't have Dubs alum Erick Dampier available to help their weak offensive rebounding. If Andris Biedrins can avoid whistles and Nellie's gin-soaked disdain, he can keep the Mavs off the glass pretty capably here. But Maggette's absence, combined with the fact that Dallas rarely sends its opponents to the line, means that the Warriors will have to execute intelligent team offense to have a chance here. That's not the kind of thing they've excelled at lately.

Warrior To Watch: Anthony Morrow... in this new Maggette-less world, he'll get as many minutes as his healed knee can handle. Swish and fist-pump and take away the pain, you beautiful man.

Mav To Watch: Drew Gooden, a fringy big who's looked like an All-Star in his two games against the Golden State Lilliputians this years. Someone -- Ronny, Tolliver, maybe Hunter -- needs to slow this guy down.

Warriors SCORE Board, 2.08.10

A new month brings new tweaks to our patented SCORE system. The February formula:

WARP per 3000 minutes + Wins Produced per 3000 minutes + Win Shares per 3000 minutes + PER + Simple Rating

Three win-based ratings of of a player's effectiveness, topped with the efficiency stat du jour, and flavored with 82games's shorthand metric to taste. The latter provides the noisiest and least reliable information of the five measurements, but as most NBA players rate within a couple points of par, we're not going to worry much about its potential to distort things. (While we have interest in the adjusted plus-minus data listed at Basketball Value, they seem to be having some trouble with their calculations today; we'll give them a gander next time. Also, it's worth noting that we're using Bradford Doolittle's formulation of Wins Produced here, not Dave Berri's.)

How do our Warriors fare by this new accounting? And how does the system itself fare?

Corey Maggette's hot streak has ended, but his dominance in these metrics has not: he's still the Warriors' MVP by just about any way you measure. Azubuike and Randolph's starts still rate highly... 'Buike's poor showing in WP3K is largely due to the Warriors' poor performance when he was on the floor, which has more to do with sample size issues and Jack-related miseries than any mistakes he was making. Monta rates a good bit behind those guys, but a good bit above everyone else. Intuitively, that sounds about right.

Below those four, Curry, Biedrins, Morrow, CJ and Ronny are all clustered in a pretty tight group of fair-to-middlin' performers. The system prefers Curry's (relative) volume scoring over CJ's ball-handling, and Biedrins's production over Ronny's good plus-minus totals...both of these preferences seem sound. The various metrics disagree strongly about some of these guys -- Biedrins is more than four times more valuable than CJ by WARP, but less than half as valuable by Wins Produced -- but they all rate Curry just about the same, as a slightly below-average performer.

Finally, SCORE thinks that the four guys who stink, stink... most other players who've passed through (Mikki, Cartier, Coby) would also rate down here. Ineffective scrubs have not been the story of the Warriors' season, as some apologists would like to pretend, but they certainly haven't helped. To be fair, some better shooting could get Anthony Tolliver out of this cellar relatively quickly.

Overall, this new-look SCORE accounting checks out pretty good... if you subjectively wanted to rank the Warriors from most effective to least effective, your order would probably look a lot like this one. The rankings hew very closely to PER, but that doesn't necessarily mean we're overweighting it; adjusting the formula by halving PER inches Ronny ahead of CJ, but otherwise doesn't affect the ratings at all. We Worriers are satisfied. This newer, simpler formula will be our standard going forward, and we will update the SCOREBoard every Monday(-ish) forthwith.

Hungry For The Wolves

The Warriors' first-half record of 13-28, while pretty damn bad, was nothing we haven't gotten used to around here. In fact, that record actually represented a one-game improvement over last season's feeble pace. And since the team ended Act One playing its best basketball of the season -- in games #29 through #41, they outscored their opponents by an average of 1.3 points -- Act Two looked like it might be a little less painful.

Surprise, motherfucker! The Warriors are winless in the second half. They've been outscored by over nine points per night. Their overall 13-36 record is their worst showing through forty-nine games since '99-'00. (If you don't remember that season, 1) count yourself lucky, and 2) imagine a team much like the current one, except that the young guard that takes all of the shots is Larry goddamned Hughes.) And the Warriors have quietly moved within shouting distance of the second-worst record in the NBA. Minnesota has won four games in a row, and now stands tied with the Dubs in the all-important win column.

Some may spin this as a positive. And indeed, the case can be made. The second-worst team in the NBA will have a 19.9% chance of grabbing John Wall, while the third-worst team will have only a 15.6% chance. The second-worst team is assured of a pick no lower than fifth, and the way this draft is shaping up (something we'll discuss ere long), the gap between five and six could be a sizeable one. At this point, it's hard to muster up much of an argument against tanking.

But let's be perfectly clear about this. The Warriors are now closer to being the second-worst team in basketball than they are to being the fourth-worst team in basketball. The Kings have lost eighteen of their last twenty and still haven't been able to get within two games of the Warriors (in part because the Dubs were one of the two chumps the Kings actually beat in that span). Mike Dunleavy just got the axe, in a move that all observers deemed justified... his Clippers are seven and a half games ahead of Nellie's boys. Even the Nets have won a game in the second half already, and they've played their opponents a helluva lot tougher than the Warriors these last two weeks. And while all the "Golden State D-Leaguer" comments are cute, it's worth noting that Monta Ellis, Andris Biedrins, Corey Maggette, Stephen Curry, Ronny Turiaf, C.J. Watson and Anthony Morrow -- in other words, the Warriors' three best players and seven of their ten best -- all played against the Thunder on Saturday. If you think that merits sympathy, you might want to keep it to yourself the next time you're around a Blazers fan.

Not all lost seasons are created equal. In the last two weeks, the Warriors have gone from scrappy, loveable losers to just plain losers... they have just plain quit. And as much as I'd love to see John Wall head our way, I have trouble believing that the universe will reward ugliness like this.

The Speedy Claxton Affair

You probably heard about this. The Warriors' decision to cut bait on Speedy Claxton's expiring contract less than two weeks before the trade deadline has been pilloried, and rightfully so -- Larry Riley's game effort to defend the move to Marcus Thompson only highlighted its stupidity. But it's worth clarifying exactly why this move was so stupid.

The problem with this move was not that Anthony Tolliver is a complete waste of time. He's easily the most intriguing D-Leaguer that's come through Oakland this season, having provided non-impact but solid production... he's passed well for a big and generally avoided foul trouble, and his woes behind the arc have obscured the fact that he's shooting over 50% on two-pointers. Tolliver's a fine guy to keep around.

The problem with this move was not that it precluded some big trade from happening. The Warriors aren't in a position to snag a top-tier guy, and they shouldn't be looking to add a second-tier guy who makes a lot of money... a Caron Butler type does nothing to cure the woes of this franchise. Other than dumping Maggette's contract, which can be accomplished as easily with Raja Bell's contract as with Speedy's, there's no big-money move that the Warriors should be considering right now. You don't pay to build on top of a foundation this rotten.

The problem with this move was not that it prioritized short-term interests over long-term ones. The short-term goal of fielding a semi-credible non-embarrassment of a team should always rank high on the list of any GM... even if you're rebuilding, you owe it to your paying customers to keep up appearances. And in fact, the team's long-term interests are better served by the presence of Anthony Tolliver than by the presence of a second mid-sized expiring deal. One certainly can't bank on perfect health from either Randolph or Wright next season, let alone both, so maintaining team control over another young big is a fine idea.

The problem with this move wasn't the move itself... it was the messaging behind the move. It reveals the inconsistency and incoherence of the Warriors' front office. Because if you're willing to drop Speedy Claxton for Anthony Tolliver when you're 13-35, you should've been willing to drop Devean George for a warm body when you were 6-10. If you're actually invested in helping the current team win some games, you should've demonstrated that investment before the season was already lost. If you're not interesting in converting expiring deals into value, you should've acknowledged that to your fanbase early and often. And you really shouldn't drop hints that you're trying to land a "star player" the day before you jettison a valuable trade chip.

In a vacuum, dumping an expiring deal to take a flyer on even a middling young 'un can be a perfectly defensible decision. But this move didn't take place in a vacuum. It took place months later than it should've, and amidst constant front office hints that the Warriors were pushing hard in the exact opposite direction. This move, and the signaling that preceded and followed it, made our general manager look like a flake and a fool. Optics matter. And if Larry Riley can't even manage to waive a player without looking bad, how on earth can we expect him to negotiate skillfully with other actors?

#49: OKC @ GSW 2/6/10

PreThoughts

Oh, great... these fucking guys. Nothing much has changed since the Warriors last played the Thunder six days ago, other than a laugh-so-you-don't-cry roster blooper by the Dubs' front office that we'll examine tomorrow. The only real difference between the two games is that this one takes place in Oakland. The Warriors are a miserable 9-13 in Oracle, and on pace for their worst home record since Jason Richardson was a rookie. It'd be nice to see some backbone and homecourt pride here, but considering the team's utter inability to even slow down Kevin Durant, the Warriors have a chance tonight only in the strictest any-given-Sunday, Iron-Mike-Sharpe sense.

Warrior To Watch: Anthony Tolliver. With his contract guaranteed for the rest of the season, will he relax and finally shoot better?

Thunder To Watch: Kevin Durant... you'll have no chance, as he'll be straight-up clowning the Warriors for the eightieth straight time.

Franchise Fix #9: Approach A Coach

Franchise Fix #0: Where We're At

Franchise Fix #1: Fire A Legend

Franchise Fix #2: Let It Rain

Franchise Fix #3: Set A Date

Franchise Fix #4: Select A Core

Franchise Fix #5: Know Your Star

Franchise Fix #6: Clear The Decks

Franchise Fix #7: Work The Margins

Franchise Fix #8: Perfect Your Pitch

The Golden State Warriors are the third-worst and worst-coached team in the NBA -- our reality is achingly, hauntingly terrible. As such, the time has come to return to the soothing pastures of make-believe, where we Worriers have taken the front office reins. And it's a pleasure to recall that, in this relative utopia, we fired Don Nelson over two months ago.

To progress as a franchise, however, we will need to replace him with someone good this summer. Keith Smart has been our interim coach in WorrierWorld, and it's possible that he's shown enough there to earn the '10-'11 job, but we just can't be sure; the gauzy membrane between the dream world and ours does not allow us to see how our previous moves have been working. If it turns out that Keith Smart fits our criteria, he could well be our guy. If he doesn't, we will be forced to wish him well in his future endeavors.

So. Here are the characteristics we should look for in our next head coach.

WebWideWorries, February 5th

• Tim Kawakami argues that the Warriors should trade for big-money non-impact talent, while simultaneously pointing out that the Warriors are screwed due largely to their big-money non-impact talent. A classically incoherent column that points out the difficulty of working a contrarian gimmick: you can't simply invert every move made by a stupid team and come out smart. Writ large, Kawakami is of course correct that the franchise is incompetent. But in context, the Warriors' unwillingness to add payroll right now is unequivocally the right decision, and Kawakami just makes himself look silly by pretending otherwise.

• Stephen Curry is in the Three-Point Shootout; he and Morrow will both take part in the Rookie/Sophomore Challenge game. In general, I'm very much against the idea that Warriors fans should care about guys playing a part in All-Star Weekend... conflating the team's streak of failure with its streak of All-Star exclusions is a very dangerous mistake to make, and I'd rather not see Morrow play, coming off an injury as he is. But I regard Curry's entry in the Three-Point Shootout as a positive, as it highlights that this is the one thing he's actually been good at. He has the third-highest three-point percentage of the six guys in the contest, and a win is far from impossible.

• Kevin Pelton examines Monta Ellis's ineffectiveness, with an in-depth look at his January 15th performance against Milwaukee. Like any analysis based on a single game, it gives an incomplete picture -- Monta's production on both ends has seesawed dramatically over the course of the year -- but it's excellent analysis nonetheless.

• Speaking of Monta: 82games has updated its plus-minus data, now covering every game through Tuesday's loss to Houston. Maggette's net plus-minus is back in the black and Turiaf's is rising. On the flip side, Monta's -12.8 is worse than any NBA starter's in the last seven seasons (though Troy Murphy and Jeff Green are keeping pace with him this year). Also, Andris Biedrins now has a -5.0 net plus-minus that's roughly the inverse of Turiaf's. Both our offense and defense have been a bit less effective with Biedrins on the floor.

• It wouldn't be accurate, however, to say that Biedrins has been some sort of defensive disaster. Our opponents short worse and grab fewer offensive rebounds when Biedrins is on the floor. They commit fewer turnovers, but he grabs a good number of steals for a center, so it's hard to see how that's his fault. Our opponents get to the line a bit more often when he plays, and that is his fault... his foul rate is too high. But let's keep some perspective here, people. Our defense is crappy mainly because we can't protect our glass or our rim... pinning that on the seventh-best defensive rebounder in basketball, whose 4.5% Block Percentage places him just outside of the league's top ten, is a little bit of a stretch. Once Biedrins stops getting whistled so often, he'll revert to being the mild defensive asset he's always been.

• By Dave Berri's estimation, Corey Maggette was the league's most-improved player through the first half of the year. A commenter named Jared points out why his performance probably isn't sustainable... given Maggette's fall to earth in the past two weeks, it's hard to argue with that.

• More Maggetteology: a fun and rousing defense of the man from our friend Sherwood Strauss.

• Finally, Bradford Doolittle examines the most storied positions in NBA history, and points out that both Maggette and Biedrins walk on hallowed ground. By his estimation, the Warriors' center position (Wilt, Nate Thurmond, Robert Parrish) and small forward position (Paul Arizin, Rick Barry, Mullin) are the fifth and sixth most legendary spots in the game, ranking behind only two Celtic positions and two Laker positions. In truth, the more depressing and telling data lies in the full chart he posts at the end of the article: in its 64-year history, the franchise has never had truly historic talent at the four or either guard position. Ironic, given how perimeter-oriented the team has been in recent decades.

Trade Maggette, Already!

I'd really love to hear Craig Finn sing Corey Maggette's name. Where do you go to get that done? Is there a service where you can pay to make him sing certain syllables? Anyway, point being: it's still time to trade this guy. (Maggette, that is, not Finn -- I would NEVER trade Craig Finn.)

There's no reason to think that a fairly expensive, high-usage, bad-defense small forward will be a great fit for these Warriors anytime in the next couple years, and there's plenty of reason to think that his trade value will only go down from here. I really like Corey Maggette, and continue to think that he's badly misunderstood and underrated. But context and fit matter. And whether you're looking to buy this team or sell it, you should want that contract off the books, for expiring deals if possible. There aren't many places you can send him -- most bad teams aren't about to take on that kind of money, and most good teams are set on the wing -- but two plausible options remain, options where the Warriors would receive expiring deals in return.

1) Corey Maggette to Dallas for Josh Howard. Mark Cuban is getting antsy, and Maggette would give the Mavs needed offensive help. Their stat-nerdy front office would probably blanch at his defense more than most, but would also appreciate the value of his offense more than most. Howard's deal expires this summer.

2) Corey Maggette to Boston for expiring scrubs. The Celts would probably prefer a Hinrich type, but worth looking into. This trade would force the Warriors to waive two players to stay within roster limits, but it's getting to be that time of year... with no blockbusters on the horizon, saying goodbye to Speedy, Raja and even Devean is in the cards.

In both cases, it would be worth throwing in CJ as a sweetener if necessary. I also like CJ, but his upside isn't all that high, and the handwriting's on the wall for him here, to boot. He'll be leaving town as soon as he's able, and the Dubs should trade him for value while they can.

Larry Riley, your team is 13-35... now is no time to get timid about sucking. HOLD STEADY. Make things worse, so that they someday might get better. Trade Corey Maggette, and increase the chances that this pitiful team might enjoy a constructive summer.

#48: GSW @ DAL 2/3/10

PostThoughts -- Mavericks 110, Warriors 101

One helluva game from Monta Ellis, more good play in limited time from Andris Biedrins, some credible C.J. Watsoning from C.J. Watson, and a pile of crap from everyone else.

This game highlighted Warrior dysfunctions better than most. Monta's mind-blowing 46-points-on-23-shots performance was marred by seven turnovers, a couple of which came about via lazy, fatigued-looking perimeter passes, the others of which came about via completely predictable drives to the basket that were called charges. On a rare night when the Warriors won the battle on the boards, they settled for only a moderate win, not a blowout... Nellie steadfastly refused to take advantage of the Mavs' size, and cannily turned a big edge into a small one. Wait, that's not what "cannily" means. "Stupidly". There we go... that's better. And if you want evidence of a rudderless offense, it doesn't get much simpler than 13 assists against 20 turnovers. As a team, the Warriors passed less effectively tonight than Samuel Dalembert or D.J. Mbenga.

Steph Curry is flat-out struggling, and in ways that have nothing to do with his cold shooting... both his playmaking and defense have taken big steps backward in the last three games. Let's chalk it up to typical rookie fatigue for now, but it's worth keeping an eye on.

Seven losses in a row now, for those sad souls who are counting. But Anthony Morrow should be back Saturday, and, well... he's fun, at least.

Is Nellie The NBA's Worst Coach?

It's impossible to say. There are many aspects of coaching that we fans never see; some strategic subtleties will escape even the savvier viewers among us; our evaluations of the tools each coach has on hand -- players and their various skills -- are inevitably incomplete. You can't say with full confidence that Don Nelson's incompetence has exceeded that of, say, Kurt Rambis. You can't prove that Nellie has been the worst coach in the league so far this season.

But you can make a pretty damn good case.

Exhibit A. In third quarters, coaches make strategic adjustments based on the first half of action... on average, the third is perhaps the most coaching-intensive quarter in an NBA game. Opponents are outscoring Don Nelson's Warriors by an average of 3.8 points in every third quarter. This is not only the worst showing by any team in the third quarter, it is the worst showing by any team in any quarter... not even the Nets fare as badly in any quarter as the Warriors do in the third. When strategy becomes paramount, Nellie's teams immediately fall apart.

Exhibit B. The Warriors have underperformed their Pythagorean record by three games, thanks in large part to their incompetence in close contests. The Warriors are now 3-10 in games where either team has a chance to tie or take the lead in the final two minutes. Youth alone does not explain this, as most of the league's other young teams -- the Grizzlies, the Thunder, the Kings -- have fared far better in close games.

Exhibit C. Don Nelson's offensive weapons include Andris Biedrins, who is on pace to become the most efficient field-goal scorer in NBA history, and Anthony Morrow, who is on pace to become the most efficient three-point shooter in NBA history. Both players are shooting significantly less often this season, thanks to an offense that excludes them.

#47: GSW @ HOU 2/2/10

PreThoughts

The Warriors kick off their February slate in the hopes that this month will prove gentler than the two preceding it. For while their 6-10 showing through the end of November wasn't really anybody's idea of a good time, it was a damn picnic compared to the 3-12 and 4-11 records of December and January. With only four sub-.500 teams amongst their twelve February opponents, the team will have to show marked improvement to avoid another stinker of a month. And sadly, with Punxsutawney Phil's spotting of his own shadow, the Warriors' winter may be far from over.

Today certainly doesn't figure to signal the start of a turnaround... the Dubs have lost eleven of their last twelve road games and eight straight to the Rockets overall, including a pair of brutal losses earlier this season. Houston is no powerhouse -- they're exactly league-average in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency -- and they've been having problems of late, dropping four of five and losing Kyle Lowry to a knee sprain. But they're an intelligent and hardworking team, and that should be more than enough to get them past... whatever the Warriors currently are.

Corey Maggette's a game-time decision, thanks to a hip-pointer. If he doesn't play, it'll be only the second game he's missed all year. Keep that in mind, self-pitiers.

Warrior To Watch: Monta Ellis... the Rockets' lack of strong wing scoring should save him some energy on the defensive end. He's a decent bet to snap out of his funk here.

Rocket To Watch: Chuck Hayes, whose numbers are eerily similar to Biedrins's, considering how different their games are.

Karl, Junior

We mustn't let the season's mounting miseries prevent us from welcoming the Warriors' newest player. Coby Karl, the son of Nuggets head coach (and former Warriors skipper) George Karl, certainly made his presence felt last night... he recorded six points, six assists and six fouls in 24 minutes, and he and CJ badly outplayed the starting guards. Was Karl's strong performance a harbinger of things to come, or just the latest fluky good start by an overmatched D-Leaguer?

Karl graduated from Boise State in '07. He joined the Lakers as an undrafted free agent that fall, appearing in a handful of games between stints in the D-League; he then spent much of last season with Joventut de Badalona in Spain, where he played alongside this Ricky Rubio fella you may have heard of. He made the Cavs' roster in training camp this year, only to be waived shortly after New Year's. In the 20 games he appeared in for the Lakers and Cavs, he was on the court for a total of 76 minutes. His Warriors debut accounts for 24% of his career minutes total, 17% of his career point total, 40% of his career assist total, and an amusing 60% of his career personal foul total. We're not going to learn much from his NBA numbers so far.

He has, however, logged 44 games in the D-League, with impressive results. In fact, it's worth comparing said results with those of another Warrior. The top line represents Karl's career D-League averages; the bottom line represents the averages of Kelenna Azubuike, a similarly-sized player, in his 12 D-League games.

CK: 37.8 minutes, 19.2 points (.482 FG%, .391 3P%, .816 FT%), 5.2 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.4 blocks, 3.1 turnovers, 3.0 fouls

KA: 39.2 minutes, 26.0 points (.516 FG%, .485 3P%, .794 FT%), 5.0 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.6 blocks, 2.7 turnovers, 2.2 fouls

#46: GSW @ OKC 1/31/10

PreThoughts

New, darker clouds are gathering over the heads of the '09-'10 Warriors. For while this has been a crappy team for awhile now, it's been a pretty chipper crappy team: the players seemed to be keeping their spirits up and enjoying one another's company. In the last several games, those improbably happy vibes have been less evident. Monta's eyes are glazing over a little more than usual... Maggette looks grumpy... even Curry seems listless. The needle on the season barometer may have finally pushed past "bad" into "bad and not happy about it".

Things don't figure to get better this afternoon, when the Warriors take on a Thunder team with the 11th-best point-differential in the league. Stylistically, they're a pretty close match for the Bobcats: they defend, crash the offensive boards and get to the line. Interestingly, their solid rebounding totals are mainly due to their perimeter guys -- Westbrook, Harden, Sefalosha and Durant all rebound extremely well for their positions -- so smallball would be an even worse idea than usual today. The Warriors will need a big game from Biedrins here, and who knows if Nellie will even give him the chance to have one. (Another thing the Warriors could use: a heavy-minute outing from Jeff Green, the only NBA starter with a plus-minus worse than Monta's.)

Warrior To Watch: Stephen Curry, who posted a nine-assist/one-turnover game up in our mugs on Friday. Can he have similar playmaking success today?

Thunderer To Watch: Kevin Durant, natch. Already a legitimate All-Star, he needs only to become an effective passer to reach the very top tier; on the season, his passing numbers are worse than Corey Maggette's. It'll be interesting to see his decision-making process on the rare occasions when the Warriors bottle him up today.

#45: CHA @ GSW 1/29/10

PreThoughts

It's been over two months since Stephen Jackson left town, and I, for one, am looking forward to seeing him. As overrated as he was and is, as excruciating to watch as he could often be, and as interminable as his last days seemed, I can't say that I still harbor any ill feelings. He got traded to our Mickey Mouse franchise, he bilked it for three extra years of big money, and then procured himself a ticket out of town. More power to the guy, I say.

What's funnier, the one bitter consolation for Warriors fans in his removal -- that he'd still be missing the postseason -- is now looking pretty wrong-headed. Even after losing three of their last four, Jack's 'Cats stand at an even .500, which has them three games up on Milwaukee for the eighth spot in the East. (Cue Bob Fitzgerald pointlessly complaining about the disparity between the conferences, as though there were some alignment that could get the Warriors some love.) Charlotte's path to decency has been exceedingly simple: they're the second-best defensive team in the game, rating in the league's top third in each of the Four Factors. They stink on the other end, but they do get to the line a good bit, a trait that should serve them very well against the NBA's second-most foul-happy team.

To win, the Warriors will need to crack the first strong defense they've encountered in weeks, and they'll need to avoid whistles a bit more often than usual. They'll also need to slow down Gerald Wallace, and it's not immediately obvious how they'll do that with the talent at hand. Nellie's starting lineup is normal-sized tonight, a heartening early sign -- Anthony Tolliver will get first crack at Wallace-wrangling. He's rebounded well and avoided foul trouble thus far, so maybe he can hold the line for a bit, with Maggette shadowing the less-threatening Boris Diaw and Monta, inevitably, covering Jack. If Tolliver scuffles, it'd be a good night to play Ronny alongside Biedrins. Don't hold your breath on that front, though.

Warrior To Watch: Corey Maggette, whose metronomically high production has fallen off this week, and who'll be facing off against a fearsome defender in Wallace. Can he get it going again?

Bobcat To Watch: Jack will be hard to forget about, but keep an eye on Nazr Mohammed, a guy who's having one of the strangest late-career renaissances in years.

GSW Advanced Stats Through 1/29/10

Courtesy of the always-lovely Basketball Reference... the ugly compression of the numbers is my doing, not theirs. To mix things up, we'll walk through by stat, not by player. (BBR provides a glossary for these stats here.)

The players are listed from best to worst in that wacky Player Efficiency Rating all the kids are buzzing about; by that metric, Maggette, Randolph and Monta are the only Warriors to rate as above-average players in significant minutes. Curry and Biedrins are rising in the ranks but still rate a bit below average overall... Ronny, Vlad and the D-Leaguers fare pretty wretchedly here. PER does not quantify defense much at all and may overreward inefficient scoring a bit, so grains of salt are advisable, but if you want to rank the Warriors in terms of effectiveness, you could do a lot worse than this order. Besides the briefly-appearing Azubuike, two Warriors rate as elite by True Shooting Percentage: Maggette, still sixth-best in the league despite his weak recent performances, and Morrow, still 15th-best despite an extended cold streak. If the Warriors want to improve their offense, feeding him frequently upon his return would be a pretty good way to start. Biedrins, Deavan, Curry and CJ rate above the ~.540 league average here, Monta and Randolph are a bit below, everyone else is downright horrible.

Missing The Point

A listless loss last night pushed these Warriors to 13-31. They continue to "boast" the third-worst record in the NBA; what's worse, they now have the fifth-worst home record in the league. Don Nelson needs a total of 24 victories this year to pass Lenny Wilkens for the all-time wins record... if the Dubs continue to lose at this pace, he won't get win #24 until the season's final game. Talk about going out with a whimper.

These are dark days, and the last thing Warriors fans need is something else to fret about. But the time for fretting is, nonetheless, upon us. There's trouble brewing in Oakland, of a type that most observers have neither noticed nor acknowledged. And while we Worriers have hinted at it before, hinting will no longer do; this issue has become pressing. It's time we faced our fears. It's time we talked about the elephant in the room.

Dearly beloved, we are gathered here today to lament the passing of Stephen Curry, because it just hasn't been very good. And the odds of him ever becoming a quality NBA point guard aren't very good, either.

We will now take questions.

#44: NOH @ GSW 1/27/10

PreThoughts

Monta's back, and thank heavens... in lamenting the inefficiencies of his Superman routine, it's easy to forget how badly the Warriors need him to compete. For while Stephen Curry tried gamely to keep things going, in Monta's absence, the team was clearly a weapon short (well, at least one). And tonight, for the first time since the latest Denver heartbreaker,they're facing a team that's playing well. Since getting CP3 back from injury in early December, the Hornets have gone 17-9. And while they recently dumped both Devin and Bobby Brown to get under the cap, the increased playing time that opens up for Darren Collison and Marcus Thornton may actually make them a better team... it'll certainly make them a more exciting one. It's not a bad time to be a sports fan in the Big Easy.

The action's back in Oracle, where the Dubs continue to play credibly -- despite an 9-11 record there, they've outscored visitors by 1.2 points a game -- and the Hornets are only 8-16 on the road. No reason not to expect a competitive one tonight. The Hornets play slowly, take care of the basketball better than any team except the Hawks, and neither draw nor commit many fouls, so it's one of the bigger style clashes on the schedule. The team that determines the pace of the game is likely to come out on top.

One final word of warning: for the first time in two weeks, Don Nelson has all three of his guards available. The floor time for the suicidal three-guard lineup had already diminished before CJ went down, so maybe the big man has found religion on this. But last night showed he hasn't gotten smallball out of his system, so beware the Curry/Monta/CJ three-headed mini-monster.

Warrior To Watch: Monta Ellis. The Dubs have been helpless in the halfcourt without him, and the Hornets' transition D is stingier than that of most teams. He'll need to get back to creating shots in a hurry here.

Hornet To Watch: Chris Paul, one of those players who makes the game's beauty self-explanatory.

36 Special

There are many statistical ways to slice and dice these Warriors of ours, but one of the simplest and most informative is to correct for varying amounts of playing time. If we want to compare, say, Chris Hunter's contributions to Ronny Turiaf's, we have to account for the fact that Ronny plays nearly twice the minutes per game that Hunter does. And while small sample size issues exist here as in every other corner of the stat world, we're not overly worried about bench players' stats being artificially inflated. All evidence suggests that, if anything, the opposite is true: players tend to produce better when given extended stretches on the court, as their increased comfort zone outweighs the increased level of competition they might face. (See the Millsap Doctrine for more on this.)

So let's take a look at each Warrior's stat line, when prorated out to 36 minutes per game. (Data is taken from the excellent Basketball-Reference.com, and awkwardly compressed so's Blogger won't mess with it.)

Who Is Stephen Curry?

In his short career, Stephen Curry has been compared to many players. People throw around the idea that he's the next Steve Nash so blithely that Google actually suggests Nash when you type in "stephen curry" followed by an S and a T; more sanely, he is often compared to his father. Around these parts, we've suggested a couple guys whose careers Curry's might resemble -- Mark Price (which would be great), Jason Terry (which would be okay). Will Curry end up resembling one of these guys, or someone else altogether, or nobody in particular? We just don't know. But what we do know is that young #30 is having himself a helluva January:

39.7 minutes, 19.7 points on 15.8 shots, 4.7 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 2.5 turnovers (1.83 A/TO), 1.9 steals, 3.7 fouls

For a moment, let's forget about all the hype and the daydreaming and the Nellie and Bobby Knight quotes. Let's just look at Stephen Curry's numbers in this, his breakout month. Which NBA player's numbers do they most resemble? Who is Stephen Curry playing like right now?

Probably this guy, who we'll call Player X:

37.1 minutes, 20.7 points on 16.5 shots, 4.7 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 2.9 turnovers (1.71 A/TO), 1.5 steals, 2.9 fouls

Curry's taken slightly better care of the ball and grabbed a few more steals; Player X, however, has done slightly more in slightly fewer minutes, and has committed fewer fouls. In most ways -- scoring efficiency, rebounding, passing frequency -- they're pretty damn close. So who is Player X?

#43: GSW @ SAC 1/26/10

PreThoughts

As games between the third-worst team in basketball and the sixth-worst team in basketball go, this one threatens to be pretty watchable. Two regional rivals, both young and eager to run, led by leading ROTY candidates, with the winner getting back bragging rights in the all-time series? Sign my shit up.

It's tempting to say that the Warriors will have an easy time tonight, too, for the Kings have been in free-fall; they've lost 12 of 13, and are an incredible 1-10 when Kevin Martin plays. The conventional wisdom is that Tyreke and Martin is a loser of a combo, and that certainly seems to be true...

...but they're going to win again at some point, and tonight could easily be the night. For at least one of those two is going to be defended by a li'l fella at all times, and, well -- Tyreke's 6'6" and built like a linebacker, Martin's 6'7" with freaky-long arms. Curry and CJ have their work cut out for them. (Nellie's decision to open with a Curry/Cartier backcourt is a sound one.)

If Curry outplays Evans, the Warriors will win, and have a boatload of fun doing it. But if he doesn't -- if he has a cold shooting night, or if he struggles to find halfcourt openings as he did in Phoenix -- G-State will need a big night from an X-factor guy. The Kings' frontcourt is thin and unimpressive, so Anthony Tolliver, I'm looking at you.

Players To Watch: Stephen Curry! Tyreke Evans! Basketball! AMERICA!

Warriors Plus-Minus Through 1/25/09

There you are, 82games update, you old rascal! Let's see how the last six games have juggled the numbers. We've removed 'Buike, Jack, Law and Bell, on account of small sample size/team departure/both. Kept Mikki on there for the LOLs, though.

What we're seeing here, more than anything, are distortions caused by our recent improved play. Folks who've been around for it (Martin, Tolliver, etc) have taken a leap... folks who haven't (Randolph, Morrow, CJ, etc) have thus moved down the totem pole. Grains of salt, people, especially when looking at the dudes who haven't played much.

There are no caveats when it comes to the numbers of Corey Maggette. Well, his opponent PER might be a tad higher if you corrected for positional effects, but it's not like our defense collapses when he takes the floor. Our opponents actually shoot worse against our Maggetted defense than they do against the Corey-free version, but when he plays, we don't pick off as many passes and send our opponents to the line a bit more often. And if you factor in the yeoman's work he was doing against fours for much of the season, you could easily argue he's been no worse than an average defender. On the other end, of course, he's been anything but average: Maggette is the league's most efficient scorer and one of the ten most effective offensive players overall. As a matter of fact, Corey Maggette is having the most efficient scoring season ever by a Warrior. You must respect this man... do not make him barrel into you, jerk his head back as if shot and throw the ball eighty feet in the air, hoping for a whistle.

Better Coaching... or Less Coaching?

The updated numbers at left reflect the Warriors' incremental improvements of late. After a long spell as the 28th-best team in the NBA, we now rate as maybe the 24th. Our rebounding totals, though still the worst in the league, no longer project to be the worst in league history. We've even climbed out of the basement in eFG% allowed, finally passing the lowly Nets over the weekend. If you're looking for green shoots, you can find a few.

The narrative being advanced by the team and its adherents is that those green shoots are due to Don Nelson... that our recent solid play springs primarily from some inspired coaching. As some would have it, Don Nelson has cobbled together some competitive units, through Scotch tape, bubble gum and a heapin' helpin' of genius.

This narrative is not only not true, it is the diametric opposite of true. You can not get farther away from the truth than this narrative is. If the truth resides here on Earth, this narrative is pushing against the farthest edge of the universe with all its might, braving spacetime distortions, straining to get that little bit further away. This narrative is some straight-up bullshit. For we have not been playing better because Don Nelson has creatively worked past our injuries. We have been playing better because injuries have prevented Don Nelson from creatively screwing us up.

A Trade Idea That'll Blow Your Mind

T.J. Ford for Vladimir Radmanovic and Devean George. FEEL THE HEAT.

Boring as it is, it'd accomplish a couple things on our end. Ford is, unlike Vlad, a type of player we could use... even if Curry's playmaking blossoms as hoped, we'll need a backup PG next year after CJ's gone. It'd also clear a roster spot, allowing us to sign Anthony Tolliver for the rest of the season once we lose our hardship exemptions. Finally, it'd give us a slightly bigger '11 expiring to dangle in trade offers next season.

I'm not gonna pretend it's a deal that would thrill the Pacers, but they'd clearly love to get Ford off their hands, and they're not likely to get much back for him. This deal would net them about $1.6 million in cap relief next season, and give them another big body to replace the almost-sure-to-be-traded Jeff Foster. And if Vlad rediscovers his three-point stroke, they'd undoubtedly be glad to let him use it... they're sixth in the league in three-point attempts but only 26th in three-point percentage.

For Indiana to bite, we'd probably either need Vlad to come back and shoot better, or for things to turn particularly noxious between Ford and Pacers management. But it'd be worth making the call, if nothing else. It wouldn't kill us to have one ginyoowine point guard on the roster.

Dave Berri's Guide To The Warriors

The Wages of Wins guru has posted his midseason stat reports, listing WP48 (Wins Per 48 Minutes) for every NBA player... the Warriors ratings (based on games through the New Jersey win) have already sparked discussion over at GSOM. WP48 is by no means a perfect metric. Like just about every other production-based measurement, it mistakenly deems Troy Murphy to be an excellent player. WP48 by no means ignores defense -- Ben Wallace rates excellently here, for instance -- but the stat has its quirks, and is perhaps most useful when balanced against plus-minus data (which exposes Murphy as the detriment he is).

An average-quality NBA player produces 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (which makes sense, as with five guys like that you'd win about 50% of the time). LeBron, the top dog in this stat as in all others, produces 0.420 wins per 48... if you produce 0.150 wins per 48, you're pretty good, and if you produce 0.200 wins per 48, you're borderline elite. Negative numbers are more than possible, and a couple dozen players actually rate worse than -0.100 wins per 48.

1. Kelenna Azubuike, 0.256

2. Andris Biedrins, 0.203

3. Corey Maggette, 0.188

4. Anthony Randolph, 0.117

5. C.J. Watson, 0.103

6. Stephen Curry, 0.099

7. Anthony Morrow, 0.084

8. Devean George, 0.058

9. Monta Ellis, 0.049

10. Stephen Jackson, 0.035

11. Cartier Martin, -0.010

12. Vladimir Radmanovic, -0.048

13. Mikki Moore, -0.059

14. Ronny Turiaf, -0.070

15. Anthony Tolliver, -0.116

16. Chris Hunter, -0.131

In his brief but excellent season, Kelenna Azubuike posted a higher WP48 than all but 21 other NBA players. That undoubtedly overstates his case, but he was off to a blazing start, combining aggressive, efficient offense with the best individual D of any Warrior. Here's hoping he can muster some of the same next year. Andris Biedrins rating this highly will disgust some, and he's probably also getting overrated a bit here, but if you think he hasn't been good, think again. A guy who rebounds like mad, passes brilliantly for a center and plays game and decent defense will help you win games. Did you really think it was an accident that we started playing better when he came back?

Our Struggles, Summarized

Why are we 13-29?

There are a number of ways to answer this question. You can point to our rash of injuries; you can point to our inexperience; you can point to Monta's inefficiency; you can point to Nellie's poor coaching. And indeed, all of these explanations help to explain why we fail. But they don't explain how we fail. Put all the individual players and the contextual specifics aside for a moment, and try to think of the Warriors as a single basketball-playing organism. What does this organism do well, and what does it do poorly? By what processes does this organism fall short?

To answer this more fundamental question, we will scrutinize the '09-'10 Warriors using Dean Oliver's Four Factors (with the help of the excellent resources at KnickerBlogger). Oliver delineates four goals for an NBA offense, listed in decreasing importance: 1) shooting efficiently, 2) avoiding turnovers, 3) grabbing offensive rebounds, and 4) getting to the line frequently. Conversely, a defense must strive to 1) force their opponents to shoot poorly, 2) cause turnovers, 3) grab defensive rebounds, and 4) keep their opponents off of the line. By examining these eight vectors, you can get a more or less complete picture of how effective a team is.

And to give this some context, we will compare our current showings to those of the '07-'08 Warriors, the one truly effective team we've fielded in the last sixteen years. Baron's swan song should still be fresh in most fans' minds, and that team's style of play was not much different from the one we currently (try to) use... maybe we'll be able to identify why this team has failed where that team succeeded.

So. How does this Warriors team look through the prism of the Four Factors? And how does it compare to the '07-'08 Warriors, when seen through the same prism? (Numbers in parentheses indicate a team's overall league ranking in a category.)