March 30, 2010

Warriors SCORE Board, 3.30.10

Previous Editions: 12.21.091.10.102.08.102.17.102.23.10

We have updated the numbers and links at left. (It had been awhile... Coby Karl was still in there. Ewwww.) Now, we update the storied SCORE Board, with one tweak to our statistical recipe.


82games.com, we love you like our electronic brother from another mother, but you just don't update your Simple Rating often enough. As such, we'll now be getting our dash of plus-minus data from the dogs at Basketball Value, who revise their numbers daily. We're going to stick with the unadjusted overall figures, as several Warriors have played too few minutes to merit adjustment. There is noise in these numbers. Hopefully, the other elements of SCORE will outweigh that noise.

Notes: the NUOR (ewwww) reflects efficiency differential, not raw point differential, so the unit of measurement there is "points per 100 possessions", not "points per 48 minutes". Also, the Wins Produced data (we're using Bradford Doolittle's Wins Produced, not the Berri flavor) are oddly inflated this time around... that metric currently seems to think that every NBA player is amazing. We could toss their numbers, but the system makes a good point -- NBA players are amazing at basketball! Plus, we didn't want to have to mess around in Excel more than was necessary. For now, WP3K, you get a reprieve.

To reiterate: the proper way to interpret these results is to have complete faith in their validity and wisdom.

To the Board!













That rascally Reggie Williams has pushed Corey Maggette from his long-held perch. It's not like Corey has cooled down, either... while his minutes have decreased, he's shooting a blistering 56.1% in March, even better than he did in January. Corey has been everything one could have hoped. Reggie, of course, has been something else altogether, providing peak-Peja-esque numbers since being plucked off the waiver wire.

Stephen Curry fares pretty well across the board (Win Shares isn't overly enamored, but they seem to be giving him short shrift for his positive effects on the offense). His slow start keeps his overall numbers from being elite, but his last three months have indeed been stellar. Anthony Tolliver rode the finest month of his career to the finest SCORE showing of his career. He doesn't rate better than mediocre by any production-based metric, though, and to become somebody, he'll need to improve his efficiency inside -- he's hitting just 46.2% of his twos, and getting blocked 13% of the time he shoots from close range. Chris Hunter, like Tolliver, combines pedestrian-at-best production with excellent plus-minus numbers. This shouldn't be regarded as an endorsement of these two guys so much as an endorsement of using bigger players in general. Heresy, I know.

The likeable bench trio of CJ Watson, Ronny Turiaf and Anthony Morrow clocks in next... a metric's opinion of these guys depends on how highly it values usage, as all three of these guys score efficiently but rarely. The order seems about right: CJ's been the most effective of the three, while Morrow's had several long rough patches. Devean George has amassed some good plus-minus numbers in his patchwork appearances, but his production has been about as poor as you'd expect.

Monta Ellis brings up the rear in our latest go-round, and while this is largely due to his historic plus-minus crappiness -- if you removed NUOR, he'd place fourth -- WARP and Win Shares both remain unimpressed by his performance. Simply put, what Monta has done this season hasn't worked. This doesn't necessarily mean he has to be traded or even blamed. But it's a point that must be acknowledged and accounted for. No other "star" player would finish in last place on his team.

Messy results for a messy team... next time out, we may try another plus-minus variety. Thanks, SCORE!

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