January 10, 2010

Warriors SCORE Board, 1-10-10

A couple weeks ago, we made up a stat! SCORE, or Stathead Consensus On a Roundballer's Effectiveness, is an amalgam of some of the best evaluative stats on offer; it has, as we predicted, taken the world by storm. (You're probably hugging your Worriers SCORE™ foam Excel logo as you read this.) Tonight, we take another look at our Warriors through this lens. Only this time, instead of simply ranking each player by their finish in each stat, we're going to clumsily equate our ingredients. SCORE 1.1 looks like this:


We're halving the positional opponent and plus/minus data, because they're noisier than the other stuff we've got, and we're giving heavy credence to BP's Winning Percentage, because we like it. Look: this formula is literally perfect. Don't spend much time sweating the details.

The SCOREs of the ten Warriors we've seen lately (no Devean George, because, come on):











SCORE changes, but its favorite Warrior stays the same: take a bow, Corey Maggette! Maggs is now 20th in the league in PER, 10th in PTs/36, 8th in TS% (the only guy in the top ten of both of those lists), and third in free throw attempts per field goal attempt. Really first among mortals in that last one, as he is bested only by a Superman and a Birdman. Corey, you have been an absolute monster, and we can only assume that a 41.35 SCORE is reflective of that. Great work.

Anthony Randolph ends this chapter of his season with a damn impressive resume... Winning Percentage actually likes him far more than it likes Maggette, but SCORE's not quite ready to crown the kid. C.J. Watson and Anthony Morrow are peas in a pod -- both have seen their production nosedive of late, but we remain a much more successful team with each of them on the floor. The early numbers of Andris Biedrins are all over the map, and suggest some record-breakingly weak D against opposing centers; we're falling quickly out of love with the accuracy of that stat. BP sees Beans working his way back to effective with surprising speed.

Monta Ellis only rates this low because of his plus-minus; on the merits, it's hard to justify placing him below anyone besides Maggette and Randolph. But Monta remains on pace to have the worst plus-minus by a starting NBA player on record, and maybe it's reasonable to ding the guy for that. Keep shaving away at that bad boy, Monta. Steph Curry is probably right around where he belongs, as every metric continues to agree that he's a slightly below-average contributor.

Finally, Chris Hunter, Ronny Turiaf and Vladimir Radmanovic have all been terrible... there's just no other way to spin it. Hunter's plus-minus numbers remain excellent, but his production, especially on the boards, is unacceptably weak. We should play a guy like Chris Hunter more, but it wouldn't kill us to look for a better version of him. Turiaf has been fiery and should end up okay, but thus far he's bringing just 5.4 points and 6.6 boards per 36 minutes. As Mikki Moore demonstrated, that dog won't hunt. Vlad's plus-minus has improved noticeably of late as Nellie has started using him more like the bench player he is; guy is still pretty dicey, though. If Vlad's not stretching the floor, he should be kept far, far away from it.

With several coincident slumps, the story of our various players' contributions has become much simpler of late. We've basically had two genuinely effective players (Maggette and Randolph), one player who's been impressive but only marginally effective (Monta), three middling perimeter guys (CJ, Morrow, Curry), and a bunch of other guys who've played like crap. Monta may be slowly pushing himself into the "effective" column, which is good; Randolph has pushed himself into the "unavailable" column, which is really, really bad. We are really low on solid contributors right now.

If we want to compete in the short term, we need Biedrins to get back to his old form STAT, and one of our shooters to refind their form. Maggette has been awesome, and Monta is trending that way, but with Randolph out, they'll need more help from the other guys than they've gotten of late.

Speaking of help, thanks for it, SCORE. Your perfection, brilliance and supremacy are appreciated.

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