The Warriors' Dirty Little Secret

After yesterday's win over the Bulls, Don Nelson said of Stephen Curry, "...I don't know any rookie point guards better than him, that I've seen." This was a lie, but an understandable one. For while Stephen Curry is clearly not the best rookie point guard thus far -- Evans has played better, Collison and Holiday have passed better, Lawson and Jennings have done both -- he's an exciting young player who's having his best month. And hey, you gotta support your team, even if you have to fudge things a little bit. Nellie's just acting like he's got the best rookie... nothing wrong with that.

But Nellie made a somewhat odd comment in that same answer:

Tonight I actually played Monta more at the point guard and him at the two, because they were denying Monta on his catches. It was easier if he just brought the ball up and ran the point, which left Curry as the two-guard and he makes open shots. He’s used to playing that role.

This wasn't a lie... Monta did initiate the offense most of the time against Chicago. By my count, the Warriors faced a set Bulls defense eighty different times; eight plays were initiated by Maggette, Biedrins or Martin, twenty-one by Curry and the other fifty-one by Monta. Monta not only ran just about every play in the fourth quarter, but ran more plays than Curry in the first quarter, too, contradicting Nellie's claim that this alignment was purely reactive. And Curry, while he had a helluva game overall, initiated rarely and poorly in the half-court. The twenty-one plays he led included a dribble off his foot out of bounds, a dribble off his foot resulting in a jump ball, a whip underneath that was deflected and very nearly picked off, a drive that he kneed out of bounds and got a lucky call on, and a drive-and-kick to a Bull, with no Warrior within feet of where the pass was aimed. The passing results were pretty stark: Monta had eight assists and two turnovers, Curry had six assists and five turnovers.

Monta definitely played the point yesterday. But it was strange that Nellie thought this was worth noting. For the truth is, Stephen Curry is not only not the best rookie point guard in the NBA, he is not the point guard of the Golden State Warriors. Monta's our point guard, and has been for a while now.

The Maggette Fallacies

Our man Corey has been getting a little recognition of late, as will often happen when you average 28 points over the course of a month. It's nice to see an oft-maligned player get some credit. But much of this recent praise has been as wrongheaded as the criticism that preceded it... a year and a half into his Warriors tenure, most fans are still not seeing the guy with clear eyes. As such, it seems like a good time to identify and eradicate the ten most common misconceptions about Corey Maggette.

1) That he only recently became good. Corey Maggette didn't just get good in January... this is the third straight month that he's shot over .540 from the field. He didn't just get good this season, either; while his .640 TS% would represent a career-high, he's been over .580 in each of the four previous years and stands at .581 for his career (the 44th-best mark in league history). When you account for pace, you find that he's scored this often before, he's rebounded this well before, he's passed this well before (actually much better than this), and he's defended this well before. His current level of production is in keeping with what he did in his last five seasons with the Clippers. Corey Maggette is a good player, and has been for years... if you play him at his natural position (something that you'd think wouldn't be all that hard), he will help your team win games.

2) That his selfishness hurts your offensive rhythm. Offenses always profit from the presence of Corey Maggette. This season, we score 4.6 more points per 100 possessions with him on the floor than we do without him. Last season -- his least effective in six years, as he was injured and playing out of position -- we scored 1.1 more points per 100 possessions with him. The '07-'08 Clippers scored 4.8 more points per 100 possessions with him; the '06-'07 Clippers scored 4.4 more points per 100 possessions with him; the '05-'06 Clippers scored 7.4 more points per 100 possessions with him. Every offense he's ever played for, good or bad, has scored more points when he played, and more often than not, his presence has made a big difference, to the tune of four points per game or more. I don't know about you, but I measure "offensive rhythm" by how good a team is at scoring, y'know, basketball points. And Corey Maggette, both through scoring efficiently and pushing your opponent towards the penalty, always helps you score points.

#39: CHI @ GSW 1/18/10

PostThoughts

An excellent win, and our biggest since November in terms of scoring margin. The four scrubs were scrappily scrubby, rebounding well to make up for their offensive shortcomings... let's take a closer look at the four core guys that carried us here.

Stephen Curry had one of his finest games here, scoring 26 on 18 shots, grabbing a surprising ten boards and playing some excellent defense on Derrick Rose for stretches. He's still fouling too much, and he's still not making plays well, but hot dog, this feller can shoot.

In fact, we might do well to think of him as our "shooting" guard, because for all intents and purposes, Monta Ellis has been running the point for a couple weeks now. He did so quite nicely tonight, with eight assists against a mere pair of turnovers. That made up for an afternoon of unforgivable gunning, as -- credit to Geoff Lepper for the find -- Monta became just the twelfth player since '86-'87 to take 39 shots in a game. The passing, D and stamina were choice, but those 33 points did not come cheap.

Corey Maggette had just another day at the office, with 32 points on 14 shots, six boards and excellent passing numbers. He continues to make a pretty compelling case for an All-Star bid that will go unnoticed in the sea of Monta hype... he's scoring more efficiently and rebounding and passing better than Durant, and scoring more efficiently than any non-big except for Steve Nash. It's a sad joke that many still think this guy isn't a winning player... that's what you get for signing with the Warriors, I guess.

Finally, we told you: Andris Biedrins is fine. If anything, he was underused offensively here, as we could've used a few more screen-and-rolls when Monta went cold. Still a good center, still better than Joakim Noah, still underappreciated, still greasy. Attaboy, Andris.

Next up, the Nuggets come to town, with all the weapons they were missing the last time. That doesn't figure to be a pretty one, so it's a good thing that we scored a win here... the Oracle fans deserve a bone thrown their way every now and then.

Warriors Get Much-Needed Injection of Anthonyness

With Anthony Morrow set to miss up to a month with a sprained MCL, the Warriors have been granted another hardship exception, which has just been used to sign Anthony Tolliver out of the Idaho Stampede of the D-League. This will be Tolliver's third stint in the NBA, after quick cups of coffee this year with Portland and last year with San Antonio.

Tolliver is a very weak blend of Anthony Morrow and Anthony Randolph; an undersized but long PF/C with mild scoring, rebounding and passing chops who has, oddly, recently started to play like a three-point specialist. He is also described as a very smart player, offensively and defensively. Maybe he can coach!

Warriors Plus-Minus Through 1/12/09

Tell us a story, 82games, a story that takes us through Monday's loss to Cleveland...

For all the Monta hype, you simply can not find an advanced basketball metric by which he rates as Corey Maggette's equal thus far. Monta may deserve more credit than defensive measurements give him because he's so often had to defend our opponents' stars; by the same token, though, Maggette may deserve more credit than defensive measurements give him because he's so often had to defend our opponents' power forwards. Maggette has pretty clearly been our best player, and any wistful All-Star talk should be pointed in his direction.

As discussed recently, both Anthony Morrow and C.J. Watson have seen their personal production decline, but both continue to post plus-minus numbers that are solidly in the black; interestingly, we defend better with each guy on the floor, dramatically so in CJ's case. Anthony Randolph sits on the other side of the spectrum, with plus-minus numbers far less impressive than his production would imply; this may have more to do with boxing out than anything else (another topic we discussed recently).

Monta Ellis's plus-minus has gotten significantly less horrible since the last time we checked, and it now seems safe to say that he will not, in fact, make history in this department. It's still damn bad, though, with all of the damage continuing to occur on the offensive end... the obvious prescription here is more rest. Ronny Turiaf's personal production has been piddling (understandable, given his injuries), but he has defended and passed well enough to rate as a viable player. Stephen Curry remains a below-par Warrior by plus-minus, and for obvious reasons... his poor defensive on/off showing is the diametric opposite of CJ's.

Chris Hunter no longer looks like much of a player, but his defense does move the dial at least a little, as only Ronny's results have been better amongst our bigs. Andris Biedrins will continue to rate poorly in plus-minus for a while, thanks to a Wade-induced minus-27 against Miami... we, however, are not Worried. Vladimir Radmanovic has a surprisingly decent showing here, but one that doesn't seem related to anything he's doing; we have allowed fewer free throws with him on the floor, despite him committing a good number of fouls himself. With all due respect to the big man, this one seems more or less like a fluke.

Mikki Moore has been wished well in his future endeavors, but his showing here is too striking to exclude. These numbers reflect the results of our first 36 games, a stretch in which we went 11-25 and played every bit that badly... our opponents outscored us by 4.4 points per 48 minutes. But the 77% of the time that Mikki had not been on the floor, our opponents only outscored us by a point per 48 minutes. We played like a 29-53 team overall, but like a 38-44 team whenever Mikki-less. That's not to say that all of our struggles in our 405 Mikki'ed minutes were his fault, but, man -- maybe it wasn't such a good idea to play him that much.

What's The Matter With Andris Biedrins?

To be honest? Pretty much nothing. His per-36 and advanced stats from this year and last:

There are certainly some icky aspects to his year thus far; he needs to bring his foul rate back down to earth, and it'd be nice if he hit one free throw. But if you walk through these numbers, you'll see that in most respects, he's been the same old Beans: same scoring efficiency, same defensive production, same (actually better) passing numbers. His Offensive and Defensive Ratings are the exact same that they were last year.

There are three big differences in Biedrins's production between last year and this:

1) He's shooting from the field much less often.

2) He's getting to the line much less often.

3) He's grabbing many fewer offensive rebounds.

All three of these changes point to the same thing: Biedrins has not yet been incorporated back into our offense. If he's gotten the ball in the post, it's essentially been by accident, and we haven't even seen many of the screen-and-rolls he excels at. Nellie's mainly had Biedrins setting picks for our guards on the perimeter, which means fewer dishes for dunks, fewer offensive boards, fewer putbacks.

Many fans have been saying Biedrins must be playing so badly because he's hurt or high or uninterested. The truth is, he's not playing badly; he's just not being used offensively. And while he's looked clumsy and defensively overmatched at times, people seem to forget, that's just of kind of how the guy rolls. It doesn't always look pretty, but the net results are good.

So stop worrying about Andris Biedrins. He's fine, and his numbers will return to their normal levels once his coach and teammates remember how useful he can be down low.

#38: MIL @ GSW 1/15/10

PreThoughts

It'd be a stretch to call any game "must-win" for the Dubs at this point, but we could sure use a W here... this homestand will start to look pretty dicey otherwise. Brandon Jennings has not shot well since he high-55ed us, and the Bucks have lost 18 of 25, falling to tenth in a conference where that's hard to do. This being a Scott Skiles team, they do defend well, but they also foul you something fierce. Here's hoping we give them a vicious Maggette-ing.

Warrior To Watch: Monta Ellis had not yet kicked into his weird ineffective superhero mode when last we played them, so he will probably be looking to outshine ol' BJ tonight.

Buck To Watch: you'll be watching Jennings anyway, so try to also keep an eye out for Luc Mbah a Moute, a guy whose defense drives all the nerds wild. He figures to be Maggette's shadow tonight, and the winner of that battle will more than likely win the game.

PostThoughts

No win, but the larger mission of re-investing the Oracle fans was certainly accomplished. A really inspiring underdog turn from the good guys here, and you simply can't fault any Warrior for their performance tonight. Good thoughts to the legions of wounded.

In addition, we saw the continuation of several promising trends. Maggette continued his transcendent play, and his January line -- 27.7 points on 14.7 shots, 7.7 boards, 2.8 assists, 2.5 turnovers -- is most easily described as "Durant-like, but better". Andris finally double-doubled, and showed mobility, endurance and passion in doing it... if he's not all the way back, he's doing a damn good job of hiding it. Curry kept his higher shooting volume up, which will help both him and our offense in general. And we took a bunch of threes, including eight attempts by Monta. Let's be clear: we want him doing that, even if 30% is the best he can muster. Li'l teams will not compete unless they let it rain.

Monday brings a Bulls team with far more spring in their step than when last we saw them (not that they didn't beat us then). Let's hope some dudes heal up quick over the weekend, as spunky losing efforts lose their charm when placed consecutively.

Milestones Within Reach

Nellie's not the only guy who might make history this year. To wit:

• Stephen Curry is on pace for 277 personal fouls, the most by a point guard in over twenty years. Keep slappin', buddy!

• Monta Ellis is on pace for 346 turnovers, the most by an NBA player since 1986, and the fourth-most in the three-point era. Monta at one point had a shot at Artis Gilmore's all-time record of 366 (the stat's only been kept since 1977), but has probably cost himself that shot with a couple weeks of (slightly) more disciplined play.

• With his four-for-five performance last night, Anthony Morrow has again nudged his career three-point percentage (.458) ahead of the all-time leader, Steve Kerr (.454). You need 250 makes to qualify historically; Morrow's at 152. If he keeps this up, sometime next season, he will officially become the best three-point shooter in the history of basketball.

• Andris Biedrins also remains on pace to break an efficiency record. The profilic Artis Gilmore also holds the record for career field-goal percentage with a .599 mark; Andris stands at .604. You need 2000 makes to qualify here, and Andris only has 1152, so he'll need to stay sharp and healthy at least through the end of the '11-'12 season to set the mark. Still, when you hear a Warriors fan complain about how Andris Biedrins doesn't know how to score, kindly remind them that they have poo-poo in their head. If current trends hold, the dude will be the most efficient field-goal scorer in NBA history.

• Each game, Corey Maggette inches closer to his goal of becoming the all-time leading scorer from Melrose Park, Illinois. The man he's chasing, Michael Finley, is still extending his record, as he endures on the Spur's bench at age 36... Finley is slowing now, though, having only tacked on 88 points so far this season. The count currently stands at 17,192 for Finley and 11,127 for Maggette. Corey will need to average 20 points a game for 304 contests to catch up, even if Finley never scores again... health will be key here. Can Corey Maggette do it? Will he someday be celebrated at The Feast Of Our Lady Of Mount Carmel, or receive the recognition from Melrose Park mayor Ronald M. Serpico he so deeply desires? Stay tuned.

• Finally, the Golden State Warriors have grabbed 44.64% of the rebounds in their games so far this season... if maintained, this would be the lowest percentage in NBA history, breaking the 44.66% mark set by the '89-'90 Warriors. Don Nelson is not only battling Lenny Wilkens for the all-time wins record, he's battling himself for the all-time rebounding futility record. No wonder he looks so tired!!!

#37: MIA @ GSW 1/13/10

PreThoughts

Not much time for a preview tonight, so let's just cut right to the chase with our Warrior To Watch.

Anthony Randolph is out. Ronny Turiaf, mercifully, is out. Chris Hunter has turned back into a pumpkin. Vladimir Radmanovic is Vladimir Radmanovic. Andris Biedrins, we need you tonight: the old you, the limber good-hands reliable one. If that man is still in there, and you are healthy enough to summon him, now's the time. And for God's sake, stay out of foul trouble, so Nellie doesn't have an excuse to sit you.

Heat(er?) To Watch: there can only be one answer, as Dwayne Wade is one of the league's best and most exciting players, the terrifying rich man's version of Monta Ellis, and nursing a sore wrist. It'll be an interesting showdown at the two tonight.

The Warriors should win this game. Should. Let's watch.

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PostThoughts

When I said "should"...

As much as I hate sounding like Bob Fitzgerald, this just wasn't our night. If we shoot poorly and our weak-shooting opponents shoot well, we will go quietly.

Biedrins didn't have the night we hoped for, but he looked okay. Don't read too much into his -27 plus-minus, as that just reflects the fact that his stretches on the floor synced up with D-Wade's. When Wade plays, the Heat play like a 50-32 team; when he sits, they play like a 4-78 team. There is no more extreme one-man show in basketball right now.

Most of our other performances tonight don't merit close scrutiny one way or the other... Maggette was pretty good, Monta was quiet, Curry stank when he wasn't shooting threes. But two Warriors deserve special mention.

Cartier Martin had a genuinely good game. His defense was not just solid but impressive, and while he missed some shots, most of them were perfectly defensible shots to take. He played well here. And we'd all better pray that he continues to, because Nellie is clearly enamored with his newest and shiniest toy; Martin will see heavy minutes for the next couple weeks no matter how he plays.

Here's hoping that that doesn't interfere with Anthony Morrow getting consistent playing time, because tonight, the guy looked like he was back: feathery touch from everywhere, surprisingly savvy offensive decision-making, and active and disruptive hands on defense. He played 30 minutes in this game, and he should be given at least that many every night for the foreseeable future. Nice to see that one of our weapons still works.

Trading Post

Only thirty-seven shopping days left till the NBA trade deadline, and the rumors are flying hot and heavy. Darryl Morey is offering Tracy McGrady far and wide; the Wolves and Pacers either have or haven't discussed a Jefferson/Granger swap; most intriguingly, there are whispers of a Bosh/Bynum trade that would turn about eight different teams' offseason plans upside down. It's a fun time of year. But can our woeful Dubs take part in this fun, and if so, how? We've already identified one player we don't want; is there anyone worth adding or shedding?

Today, we're going to channel our inner Simmons and walk through trade possibilities between the Warriors and every other damn team. Before we get started, let's establish some ground rules.

1) We will not discuss any trade that the other team simply wouldn't consider making. I want Chris Paul, too... we don't live in that world.

2) We will not trade Anthony Randolph under any circumstances, as his actual value far exceeds his current perceived value.

3) We will not look to add any player whose contract extends past 2011, barring unusual circumstances. Our planning competitive window should still be 2011-12; given our current crappiness and uncertainty, it's not worth adding anyone who will interfere with that window.

4) We will not make a trade designed solely to help us this year, unless we can do so at no cost.

5) We should err on the side of not making a trade, if one looks like a close call. While team chemistry should not guide our thinking, we should not disrupt the bizarrely upbeat atmosphere of the current locker room unless we have a good reason to.

6) The one exception to the previous rule: C.J. Watson, who seems likely to leave this summer via free agency. Trading CJ is a worthwhile endeavor, even if it hurts some feelings.

Let's dive in and see what, if anything, the Warriors should look to do with each team.

Anthony Randolph, Examined

The prognosis is in: Anthony Randolph's ankle injury will keep him out of action for at least two months, and could (considering this team's recent track record, probably should) end his '09-'10 campaign. Bad, sad, depressing stuff. This will be a worse team, and a much less interesting one, without him.

But if we step back from our current miseries, the view is not nearly so grim. We have ourselves a pretty damn intriguing player here, one who's made real strides in his second season. Let's take a look at his production -- what he's done, where he's improved, where he could improve going forward.

Conventional Stats

We checked in on these recently, but let's give 'em another gander... Randolph's first two seasons, per 36 minutes:

Season FG FGA FG% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS

2008-09 6.3 13.7 .462 3.2 4.5 .716 4.1 7.5 11.6 1.6 1.3 2.4 2.6 4.5 15.9

2009-10 6.6 14.9 .443 5.2 6.5 .801 3.5 6.8 10.3 2.0 1.3 2.5 2.4 4.4 18.5

Randolph's rookie numbers were already pretty good. His FG% never quite recovered from a wretched first two months of play, and like many raw big men, he passed poorly and fouled a lot. But he scored with decent frequency, rebounded excellently, and blocked a lot of shots and picked off a lot of passes. His freshman line depicts a guy whose strong board work and defensive activity made up for a number of mistakes, which sounds about right.

His sophomore campaign has seen a number of shifts, most good, one disappointing. He has scored a good bit more often. His FG% is down, but he's gotten to the line much more often and upped his efficiency from there; we'll look at his exact scoring efficiency later, but suffice it to say that this has been a worthwhile trade. His passing numbers have improved a good amount -- you'd be hard-pressed to call them "good", but they're within an acceptable range for a big man. (Randolph's 0.86 assist/turnover ratio actually ties him with Chris Bosh, one of the many stars to whom he's been compared.) His rates in steals, blocks and fouls have barely changed; he still rates as a chaotic and overall helpful force on D.

Hurting Ourselves

As mentioned previously, the '09-'10 Golden State Warriors may be remembered most for their health woes. The franchise certainly hopes that'll be the case; if you're not yet sick of Bob Fitzgerald mentioning how many total games the team has lost to injury, you will be soon. And you can indeed chalk up many of our injuries -- Wright's, Azubuike's, Randolph's -- to simple bad luck.

But not all injuries are created equal. Bad luck has only dug us three feet into this grave; we've dug the last three ourselves.

First, remember the inherent padding in that "games lost to injury" statistic. We've dedicated one roster spot to Raja Bell, a player who told us he needed surgery when we traded for him. We've dedicated one roster spot to Devean George, a player whose potential contributions we have pretty transparently not cared about one way or the other. And we've dedicated one roster spot to Speedy Claxton, who we've actively hoped would be unable to play, so insurance would cover the majority of his contract. In total, we've forsaken three roster spots -- 20% of our usual player space -- in the name of compiling expiring deals. That's not an indefensible decision for a rebuilding team, but let's be clear: it's a decision. The Warriors should not pretend to be surprised that Speedy, Bell and George have only played in six out of a possible 97 games; this was, more or less, the plan. And when your plan involves a maximum of twelve available players, you're inevitably going to find yourself shorthanded for stretches at a time.

But this roster math is not the only way in which we've hurt ourselves, nor the most pernicious. We have, to put it simply, not been taking good care of some of our players. Want an example? Let's take a look at the season of Ronny Turiaf.

#36: CLE @ GSW 1/11/10

PreThoughts

I like LeBron James. He's super fun to watch and seems like a genuinely happy and nice guy who *actually* cares about making his teammates better and treating people well. So what if he doesn't speak Italian? Sometimes I think LeBron should be getting even more attention than he does.

In spite of LeBron, or possibly because of him, I can't think of the rest of the Cavaliers as anything more than a lumpy band of freaks and caricatures. Mo Williams is actually pretty damn good and the numbers like Anderson Varejao too, but after that, I'm baffled. Anthony Parker can be useful in the right context, but he just makes me think about Jamario Moon. Same goes for Shaq and Ilgauskas, the both of them comically gargantuan and slow at this point. Shaq has to be close to 400 pounds, right? Delonte West is sort of an odd bird, but I'm still inclined to think that he's harmless, even considering how he was caught armed to the teeth in a goofy three-wheeler. The rest of the roster is eminently forgettable.

None of these ad hominem perceptions matter, of course, because the Cavs do play cohesively, and are very good. And there's no opponent like the Warriors to thrust a J.J. Hickson back into our memories and onto SportsCenter. The Warriors and the Cavs have played some close, fun games over the last few years, and this one should be no different.

I'm putting the over/under on rebounding differential at 14.

Cavalier to Watch: LeBron James, who may get plenty of rest tonight, so catch him early.
Warrior to Watch: Monta Ellis, who figures to attack his fellow Jackson, Mississippi native Williams all night.

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PostThoughts

Boy, LeBron James is somebody. On certain nights, it looks like he's the best player on the floor at absolutely everything. Well, okay, his jumper wasn't firing tonight. But, man alive.

An admirably dogged effort by the Warriors. We got zero minutes from Anthony Randolph, only eleven minutes from Turiaf (X-rays negative, thank whoever for small favors), and thirteen minutes from Andris Biedrins that we'd gladly have given back. And yet we had a shot to tie in the final seconds, against one of the league's premier teams. You can't be too down on an also-ran team after a performance like that.

So this should not be interpreted as criticism. We're not blaming anyone for what happened here; we're just reflecting on it. Tonight, we are witnesses, not analysts... art lovers, not art critics. The two most vivid pieces we saw:

Monta Ellis getting blocked four times in sixty-six seconds. Tonight, we shan't judge the wisdom of our offense. Perhaps fate forces us to send this tiny man into a sea of large men ad nauseam; perhaps this is, indeed, the best we can do. If so, this world is a cold and miserable place indeed, for the pathos here was excruciating. Every smack of the ball sounded like a frail young Mississippian hitting his basketball ceiling. Every shot of Monta's glazed-over eyes reeked of a young man whose struggles have unmoored him from reality. This was a scathing sequence.

LeBron James quietly murdering us in the low post. In the fourth quarter, the game's most electrifying player turned deadly dull. He recognized that we were fielding a tiny lineup, he worked his way toward the hoop, and he had his satisfaction, cruelly and repeatedly. Oracle onlookers were alternately bored and repulsed. We at home, however, saw this for what it was: a genius recognizing the limits of his art. LeBron is more capable of extemporaneous, creative basketball than almost any creature that has ever graced this planet. And yet, when the situation was simple, he chose to simplify himself. He attacked his opponent's weaknesses over and over and over again. Entertainment lost. The Cavaliers won.

You'll sometimes hear it said that a loss can haunt a team. In the traditional sense, the saying doesn't apply to this game in the slightest -- that a great team outlasted us should inspire neither shock nor shame. But on a visceral level, tonight's contest may linger... the repeated failure of our star; the relentless accomplishment of theirs. On a given evening, the membrane that separates the good teams from the bad teams can be gossamer-thin or impenetrably thick. Tonight, somehow, it was both.

Do Not Trade For Al Jefferson

Don't do it, Warriors... just don't do it. Here are six good reasons why not.

1) His contract is friggin' enormous. Al's owed a total of $42 million in the three years after this one, more than all but six other NBA players in that timespan; several more players will of course jump ahead of him this summer, but he'll remain in the top fifteen, making huge, earth-shattering, alpha-and-omega big-dog type money. If you trade for his contract, you're saying that you can craft a good team with this guy as your very best player, because he'll be taking up about a quarter of your payroll through 2013. Trading for Al Jefferson means you think he's a superstar...

2) ...which means you don't care if your superstar plays defense. Because Al Jefferson doesn't play defense; the Wolves' D has completely fallen apart with Al on the floor in two of the last three seasons. He was becoming a decent defender for last year's Wolves, but then...

3) ...he tore his ACL. And while his scoring numbers are slowly edging back up to par month by month, his defensive and rebounding numbers remain far below what they were, especially when you adjust for the Wolves' faster pace this year. Right now, if you trade for Al Jefferson, the only skills you know you're getting are on offense. And while Al Jefferson's a good offensive player...

4) ...he ain't that good. His post moves are gorgeous, but his field-goal percentage is middling, and he neither gets to the line much nor converts well once there. Al Jefferson has never scored with more than average efficiency, and this year his TS% is 51.3, well below average, and well below six of our rotation players. In fact, of the sixteen players who've taken the floor for us this year, the only guys to score less efficiently than Al Jefferson are Vlad, Hunter, Ronny and Jack; Ronny will catch Jefferson in the next week or two, health permitting. So it's hard to see how we'd profit from his presence on offense, especially since...

Who Wants To See A Billionaire?

Just so we're clear, Warriors fans are currently pinning their hopes and dreams on a guy whose name plus the word "asshole" yields 10,800 Google hits. (We had a screenshot here originally, but try it for yourself!) You really have to tip your hat to Cohan; as we've mentioned before, not many people could turn Larry friggin' Ellison into a white knight.

Anyway, Earth's fourth-richest dude will be sitting courtside for Monday's Cavs game. Matt Steinmetz reports that Ellison has not only never attended a Warriors game, he's never even been in the arena that bears the name of the company he founded. He's going to the game with his nephew! Awww. And the speculation is running hot and heavy that a sale may soon be in the offing; Ellison's interest in buying the team has long been rumored, and Kawakami reported that Cohan and Ellison had serious discussions over the summer.

I'd be all for a new owner. Ellison, while a douche, would at least be a different douche, and though I don't think he'd be a panacea, I doubt he could be much worse. But I'm gonna say there's not much behind this visit, for two reasons:

1) The value of the franchise has only gone down since July. Attendance has been flagging, the on-court product stinks, and the brand is more battered than ever. Several of the company's most valuable assets -- Monta and Maggette, in particular -- have appreciated in value since the summer, and Jack's contract has been cleared from the books. But Biedrins's injury makes him a somewhat dicier proposition than he was before, Curry is not the impact rookie many hoped he'd be, and Randolph, excellent production notwithstanding, has not lived up to the excessive hype of the summer. We spent the summer hoping one of these young guys would take a big step forward, and none of them has done it clearly enough to get the fans excited and spending money again. Bottom line, if you didn't want to buy this team in July, you're sure as hell not going to want to now. And there's no indication that Cohan's willing to budge on his asking price.

2) The official explanation for Ellison's visit makes perfect sense. The Warriors braintrust is out in front of this story. As a matter of fact, Robert Rowell's even quoted in the Steinmetz piece that (as far as I can tell) broke it, saying, "I wouldn’t read anything into [Ellison's attendance]. He’s the CEO of the company that is our biggest corporate sponsor. Of course we’re going to roll out the red carpet for him.” Rowell also mentions that he (Rowell) canceled a trip to New York just to attend this game. Steinmetz says that Rowell "confirmed" the story; if anything, it almost seems like Rowell may have leaked the story.

Now, I'm not going to tell you that Robert Rowell is incapable of lying; when he tells you not to read into something, that doesn't necessarily mean you shouldn't. But it's not the Cohan/Rowell style to comment on smoke when there's actual fire behind it. If some sort of announcement really was imminent, I don't think we'd have heard anything from them yet. This is a notoriously tight-lipped organization. Why would Rowell go on record with a phrase like "roll out the red carpet", and acknowledge that he's changing his schedule just to accommodate the guy?

The only rational way to make sense of these tea leaves is to take them at face value. A big sponsor is coming to town; Cohan and Rowell are clumsily and nakedly kissing his feet in anticipation. This sponsor may also be interested in buying the team, but nothing about the handling of this suggests that that's soon in the offing. We should all hope for an entertaining win tomorrow night, but we should not expect deliverance.