Anthony Randolph, Examined

The prognosis is in: Anthony Randolph's ankle injury will keep him out of action for at least two months, and could (considering this team's recent track record, probably should) end his '09-'10 campaign. Bad, sad, depressing stuff. This will be a worse team, and a much less interesting one, without him.

But if we step back from our current miseries, the view is not nearly so grim. We have ourselves a pretty damn intriguing player here, one who's made real strides in his second season. Let's take a look at his production -- what he's done, where he's improved, where he could improve going forward.

Conventional Stats

We checked in on these recently, but let's give 'em another gander... Randolph's first two seasons, per 36 minutes:

Season FG FGA FG% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS

2008-09 6.3 13.7 .462 3.2 4.5 .716 4.1 7.5 11.6 1.6 1.3 2.4 2.6 4.5 15.9

2009-10 6.6 14.9 .443 5.2 6.5 .801 3.5 6.8 10.3 2.0 1.3 2.5 2.4 4.4 18.5

Randolph's rookie numbers were already pretty good. His FG% never quite recovered from a wretched first two months of play, and like many raw big men, he passed poorly and fouled a lot. But he scored with decent frequency, rebounded excellently, and blocked a lot of shots and picked off a lot of passes. His freshman line depicts a guy whose strong board work and defensive activity made up for a number of mistakes, which sounds about right.

His sophomore campaign has seen a number of shifts, most good, one disappointing. He has scored a good bit more often. His FG% is down, but he's gotten to the line much more often and upped his efficiency from there; we'll look at his exact scoring efficiency later, but suffice it to say that this has been a worthwhile trade. His passing numbers have improved a good amount -- you'd be hard-pressed to call them "good", but they're within an acceptable range for a big man. (Randolph's 0.86 assist/turnover ratio actually ties him with Chris Bosh, one of the many stars to whom he's been compared.) His rates in steals, blocks and fouls have barely changed; he still rates as a chaotic and overall helpful force on D.

Hurting Ourselves

As mentioned previously, the '09-'10 Golden State Warriors may be remembered most for their health woes. The franchise certainly hopes that'll be the case; if you're not yet sick of Bob Fitzgerald mentioning how many total games the team has lost to injury, you will be soon. And you can indeed chalk up many of our injuries -- Wright's, Azubuike's, Randolph's -- to simple bad luck.

But not all injuries are created equal. Bad luck has only dug us three feet into this grave; we've dug the last three ourselves.

First, remember the inherent padding in that "games lost to injury" statistic. We've dedicated one roster spot to Raja Bell, a player who told us he needed surgery when we traded for him. We've dedicated one roster spot to Devean George, a player whose potential contributions we have pretty transparently not cared about one way or the other. And we've dedicated one roster spot to Speedy Claxton, who we've actively hoped would be unable to play, so insurance would cover the majority of his contract. In total, we've forsaken three roster spots -- 20% of our usual player space -- in the name of compiling expiring deals. That's not an indefensible decision for a rebuilding team, but let's be clear: it's a decision. The Warriors should not pretend to be surprised that Speedy, Bell and George have only played in six out of a possible 97 games; this was, more or less, the plan. And when your plan involves a maximum of twelve available players, you're inevitably going to find yourself shorthanded for stretches at a time.

But this roster math is not the only way in which we've hurt ourselves, nor the most pernicious. We have, to put it simply, not been taking good care of some of our players. Want an example? Let's take a look at the season of Ronny Turiaf.

#36: CLE @ GSW 1/11/10

PreThoughts

I like LeBron James. He's super fun to watch and seems like a genuinely happy and nice guy who *actually* cares about making his teammates better and treating people well. So what if he doesn't speak Italian? Sometimes I think LeBron should be getting even more attention than he does.

In spite of LeBron, or possibly because of him, I can't think of the rest of the Cavaliers as anything more than a lumpy band of freaks and caricatures. Mo Williams is actually pretty damn good and the numbers like Anderson Varejao too, but after that, I'm baffled. Anthony Parker can be useful in the right context, but he just makes me think about Jamario Moon. Same goes for Shaq and Ilgauskas, the both of them comically gargantuan and slow at this point. Shaq has to be close to 400 pounds, right? Delonte West is sort of an odd bird, but I'm still inclined to think that he's harmless, even considering how he was caught armed to the teeth in a goofy three-wheeler. The rest of the roster is eminently forgettable.

None of these ad hominem perceptions matter, of course, because the Cavs do play cohesively, and are very good. And there's no opponent like the Warriors to thrust a J.J. Hickson back into our memories and onto SportsCenter. The Warriors and the Cavs have played some close, fun games over the last few years, and this one should be no different.

I'm putting the over/under on rebounding differential at 14.

Cavalier to Watch: LeBron James, who may get plenty of rest tonight, so catch him early.
Warrior to Watch: Monta Ellis, who figures to attack his fellow Jackson, Mississippi native Williams all night.

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PostThoughts

Boy, LeBron James is somebody. On certain nights, it looks like he's the best player on the floor at absolutely everything. Well, okay, his jumper wasn't firing tonight. But, man alive.

An admirably dogged effort by the Warriors. We got zero minutes from Anthony Randolph, only eleven minutes from Turiaf (X-rays negative, thank whoever for small favors), and thirteen minutes from Andris Biedrins that we'd gladly have given back. And yet we had a shot to tie in the final seconds, against one of the league's premier teams. You can't be too down on an also-ran team after a performance like that.

So this should not be interpreted as criticism. We're not blaming anyone for what happened here; we're just reflecting on it. Tonight, we are witnesses, not analysts... art lovers, not art critics. The two most vivid pieces we saw:

Monta Ellis getting blocked four times in sixty-six seconds. Tonight, we shan't judge the wisdom of our offense. Perhaps fate forces us to send this tiny man into a sea of large men ad nauseam; perhaps this is, indeed, the best we can do. If so, this world is a cold and miserable place indeed, for the pathos here was excruciating. Every smack of the ball sounded like a frail young Mississippian hitting his basketball ceiling. Every shot of Monta's glazed-over eyes reeked of a young man whose struggles have unmoored him from reality. This was a scathing sequence.

LeBron James quietly murdering us in the low post. In the fourth quarter, the game's most electrifying player turned deadly dull. He recognized that we were fielding a tiny lineup, he worked his way toward the hoop, and he had his satisfaction, cruelly and repeatedly. Oracle onlookers were alternately bored and repulsed. We at home, however, saw this for what it was: a genius recognizing the limits of his art. LeBron is more capable of extemporaneous, creative basketball than almost any creature that has ever graced this planet. And yet, when the situation was simple, he chose to simplify himself. He attacked his opponent's weaknesses over and over and over again. Entertainment lost. The Cavaliers won.

You'll sometimes hear it said that a loss can haunt a team. In the traditional sense, the saying doesn't apply to this game in the slightest -- that a great team outlasted us should inspire neither shock nor shame. But on a visceral level, tonight's contest may linger... the repeated failure of our star; the relentless accomplishment of theirs. On a given evening, the membrane that separates the good teams from the bad teams can be gossamer-thin or impenetrably thick. Tonight, somehow, it was both.

Do Not Trade For Al Jefferson

Don't do it, Warriors... just don't do it. Here are six good reasons why not.

1) His contract is friggin' enormous. Al's owed a total of $42 million in the three years after this one, more than all but six other NBA players in that timespan; several more players will of course jump ahead of him this summer, but he'll remain in the top fifteen, making huge, earth-shattering, alpha-and-omega big-dog type money. If you trade for his contract, you're saying that you can craft a good team with this guy as your very best player, because he'll be taking up about a quarter of your payroll through 2013. Trading for Al Jefferson means you think he's a superstar...

2) ...which means you don't care if your superstar plays defense. Because Al Jefferson doesn't play defense; the Wolves' D has completely fallen apart with Al on the floor in two of the last three seasons. He was becoming a decent defender for last year's Wolves, but then...

3) ...he tore his ACL. And while his scoring numbers are slowly edging back up to par month by month, his defensive and rebounding numbers remain far below what they were, especially when you adjust for the Wolves' faster pace this year. Right now, if you trade for Al Jefferson, the only skills you know you're getting are on offense. And while Al Jefferson's a good offensive player...

4) ...he ain't that good. His post moves are gorgeous, but his field-goal percentage is middling, and he neither gets to the line much nor converts well once there. Al Jefferson has never scored with more than average efficiency, and this year his TS% is 51.3, well below average, and well below six of our rotation players. In fact, of the sixteen players who've taken the floor for us this year, the only guys to score less efficiently than Al Jefferson are Vlad, Hunter, Ronny and Jack; Ronny will catch Jefferson in the next week or two, health permitting. So it's hard to see how we'd profit from his presence on offense, especially since...

Who Wants To See A Billionaire?

Just so we're clear, Warriors fans are currently pinning their hopes and dreams on a guy whose name plus the word "asshole" yields 10,800 Google hits. (We had a screenshot here originally, but try it for yourself!) You really have to tip your hat to Cohan; as we've mentioned before, not many people could turn Larry friggin' Ellison into a white knight.

Anyway, Earth's fourth-richest dude will be sitting courtside for Monday's Cavs game. Matt Steinmetz reports that Ellison has not only never attended a Warriors game, he's never even been in the arena that bears the name of the company he founded. He's going to the game with his nephew! Awww. And the speculation is running hot and heavy that a sale may soon be in the offing; Ellison's interest in buying the team has long been rumored, and Kawakami reported that Cohan and Ellison had serious discussions over the summer.

I'd be all for a new owner. Ellison, while a douche, would at least be a different douche, and though I don't think he'd be a panacea, I doubt he could be much worse. But I'm gonna say there's not much behind this visit, for two reasons:

1) The value of the franchise has only gone down since July. Attendance has been flagging, the on-court product stinks, and the brand is more battered than ever. Several of the company's most valuable assets -- Monta and Maggette, in particular -- have appreciated in value since the summer, and Jack's contract has been cleared from the books. But Biedrins's injury makes him a somewhat dicier proposition than he was before, Curry is not the impact rookie many hoped he'd be, and Randolph, excellent production notwithstanding, has not lived up to the excessive hype of the summer. We spent the summer hoping one of these young guys would take a big step forward, and none of them has done it clearly enough to get the fans excited and spending money again. Bottom line, if you didn't want to buy this team in July, you're sure as hell not going to want to now. And there's no indication that Cohan's willing to budge on his asking price.

2) The official explanation for Ellison's visit makes perfect sense. The Warriors braintrust is out in front of this story. As a matter of fact, Robert Rowell's even quoted in the Steinmetz piece that (as far as I can tell) broke it, saying, "I wouldn’t read anything into [Ellison's attendance]. He’s the CEO of the company that is our biggest corporate sponsor. Of course we’re going to roll out the red carpet for him.” Rowell also mentions that he (Rowell) canceled a trip to New York just to attend this game. Steinmetz says that Rowell "confirmed" the story; if anything, it almost seems like Rowell may have leaked the story.

Now, I'm not going to tell you that Robert Rowell is incapable of lying; when he tells you not to read into something, that doesn't necessarily mean you shouldn't. But it's not the Cohan/Rowell style to comment on smoke when there's actual fire behind it. If some sort of announcement really was imminent, I don't think we'd have heard anything from them yet. This is a notoriously tight-lipped organization. Why would Rowell go on record with a phrase like "roll out the red carpet", and acknowledge that he's changing his schedule just to accommodate the guy?

The only rational way to make sense of these tea leaves is to take them at face value. A big sponsor is coming to town; Cohan and Rowell are clumsily and nakedly kissing his feet in anticipation. This sponsor may also be interested in buying the team, but nothing about the handling of this suggests that that's soon in the offing. We should all hope for an entertaining win tomorrow night, but we should not expect deliverance.

Warriors SCORE Board, 1-10-10

A couple weeks ago, we made up a stat! SCORE, or Stathead Consensus On a Roundballer's Effectiveness, is an amalgam of some of the best evaluative stats on offer; it has, as we predicted, taken the world by storm. (You're probably hugging your Worriers SCORE™ foam Excel logo as you read this.) Tonight, we take another look at our Warriors through this lens. Only this time, instead of simply ranking each player by their finish in each stat, we're going to clumsily equate our ingredients. SCORE 1.1 looks like this:

50(Ind Win %) + PER - 0.5(opponent PER) + 0.5(net plus/minus)

We're halving the positional opponent and plus/minus data, because they're noisier than the other stuff we've got, and we're giving heavy credence to BP's Winning Percentage, because we like it. Look: this formula is literally perfect. Don't spend much time sweating the details.

The SCOREs of the ten Warriors we've seen lately (no Devean George, because, come on):

SCORE changes, but its favorite Warrior stays the same: take a bow, Corey Maggette! Maggs is now 20th in the league in PER, 10th in PTs/36, 8th in TS% (the only guy in the top ten of both of those lists), and third in free throw attempts per field goal attempt. Really first among mortals in that last one, as he is bested only by a Superman and a Birdman. Corey, you have been an absolute monster, and we can only assume that a 41.35 SCORE is reflective of that. Great work.

Sunday Links, 1/10/10

• A recap of Friday's win by the excellent Adam Lauridsen. Some points in here strike me as less-supported than others -- I haven't noticed Maggette struggling on the boards, for instance, and C.J.'s shown a ton more late-game poise in his Warriors career than Curry has -- but overall, very good and clear-headed stuff. Lauridsen is the prominent Warriors pundit with whom we most often seem to agree.

• Geoff Lepper's strategy to get Monta into the All-Star Game. I'd actually rather not see Monta named an All-Star; I don't want his current flawed approach to be cemented with a nod, and Lord knows it'd be nice to see the dude get a couple days of rest. But if you do want him to get there, Geoff's logic seems sound.

• A morbidly entertaining recap of our loss in Denver, courtesy of Ethan at 1984 Watch. He makes an excellent point about the (ab?)use of Turiaf, a point upon which we hope to expound soon.

• A lengthy comparison of CJ and Curry over at Chris Cohan Sucks. Chris is not known for his understatement -- he's even more vehement about Curry's shortcomings than I am -- but it's fun and well-written stuff. Always worth a read.

• Some Warriors talk at the APBRmetrics forum. Topic starts with me re-hashing some points we've made here, but don't worry -- actual smart people start chiming in quickly.

• The box scores at Basketball Reference now feature Four Factors and other fun nerdy data. Now we can reminisce, for instance, about how Portland outsmarted us in every facet of the game eight days ago.

• An oldie but goodie: Dave Berri's measured evisceration of Nellie's smallball tactics over at Wages Of Wins. Written in August, it covers last year's smallball foibles, not this year's. The best (and one of the only) examinations of Nellie's recent performance by a widely-known stathead.

• Speaking of oldies but goodies, it's been a while since I watched Baron pie Monta in the face. Monta is so bothered for so long! This is what the current season must feel like: unending agony, with some asshole in a sportcoat leering at you.

The Story Of Our Season

Anthony Randolph's ankle is not fractured, per Steinmetz. This isn't even necessarily good news, as ligament damage can sometimes cause longer-lasting problems... still, it's news. Randolph will be examined again tomorrow, and we should know more then. Whatever the prognosis, we are not likely to see the young man again anytime soon; he will be out for a couple weeks, at the very least.

This is depressing. And it continues a streak of injuries that has plagued us all year -- Wright, Azubuike, Biedrins, Turiaf, now Randolph. We have had a very unlucky year on that front. And media coverage of the team, which has already gotten a lot of fodder out of the injury angle, will soon frame our health woes as the defining characteristic of the '09-'10 Warriors. Articles like this one are already cropping up. Injuries, you'll hear it said and suggested, are the story of our season.

And, hey. Your top two centers miss a ton of time, your starting small forward is out for the year, you're down to seven playable guys at points, you've had to use a washed-up non-rebounding vet at center, you've already had to sign two D-Leaguers, and now your young stud power forward hurts his ankle... I mean, that's your season, right? Of course you're gonna suck.

Here's the problem: everything in that description applies to the Portland Trail Blazers. Health-wise, they've had it every bit as bad as us. Their top ten guys -- Roy, Miller, Aldridge, Oden, Przybilla, Batum, Fernandez, Outlaw, Blake, Bayless -- have missed a combined 115 games due to injury or illness thus far. Our top ten guys -- Monta, Biedrins, Maggette, Randolph, Curry, 'Buike, Turiaf, Wright, Morrow, CJ -- have missed 111. And yet the Blazers are 23-15, and on pace to grab the sixth seed in one of the most loaded conferences in league history. The story of their season will not be about injuries; the story of their season will, more than likely, be written in the playoffs. If they're not willing to accept health woes as an excuse, why should we?

Cartier Watch

The Warriors have been granted another hardship exemption, allowing them to carry a sixteenth player for a limited time; after last night's game, Nellie acknowledged that that player would be small forward Cartier Martin, who played for our summer league team. He's been added to our player links on the left side of the page.

This strikes me as a real failure of imagination, as you get the sense that the team grabbed Martin only because they're already familiar with him. Nobody seems to think that he's the best available player, even at his position. Scott Schroeder at Ridiculous Upside thinks there were better choices; Kevin Pelton at Basketball Prospectus recently listed 22 D-Leaguers whose stats suggest they'd be useful to NBA teams, and Martin wasn't one of them. And with Randolph sidelined, it'd be hard to argue that our greatest need is on the wing. I wouldn't be surprised if Martin's quickly replaced by another, bigger D-Leaguer.

But he's a Warrior for now, so let's get to know him a little. Cartier's 25, Texas-born, went to Kansas State, graduated in '07. He played in Turkey in '07-'08, then joined the D-League last year. He played well enough with the Iowa Energy to earn a D-League All-Star and a call-up to the Bobcats (which ironically denied him the chance to play in said All-Star Game). The Bobcats kept him around for their final 36 games; he saw garbage time in 33 of them, playing 266 minutes overall. He signed with storied Italian team Bennetton Treviso over the summer, but decided to come back, rejoining the Energy in December; that gamble has, obviously, paid off. You've got to like these journeymen types. It's sort of awesome to think about a young dude from Texas being good enough at something to get a high-paying job in Turkey.

However, while Martin was good enough to help the fine folks at Antalya Büyükşehir Belediyesi, it's not at all clear that he's good enough to help us. His numbers with the Bobcats were poor, however you slice them. Even untranslated, his D-League stats are underwhelming; he's shooting only .426 against smaller and worse defenders. Basketball Prospectus wrote of him in their preseason guide, "Cartier Martin has some potential as a wing defender, but his lack of offensive skills will likely keep him from realizing that potential in the NBA"... Ridiculous Upside is not even high on his defense. Martin can hit the occasional 3 and play some energetic D, and that's about it. He basically brings the same things to the table as Devean George, which, with all due respect, ain't much.

So while we welcome the guy aboard, let's keep an eye out for someone a little more interesting. Rod Benson would be both delightful and helpful, but I doubt a team this dysfunctional would brave the game-changing force of the Boom Tho Movement. Kevin Pelton makes this Greg Stiemsma fellow sound pretty interesting. And at the risk of banging this drum one too many times, one of the NBA's best rebounders is still on the waiver wire.

We have railed against back-of-roster complacency before, and we must continue to do so here. Simply put, the decision to add Cartier Martin seems to have been made out of laziness. Larry Riley, your team is 11-24... you need to be trying harder to improve your talent base, even in your sixteenth roster spot.

Ten Awesome Things About Last Night

1) We Won That Basketball Game!

2) On a narrative level, the game could not have been more effective at drawing the Oracle fans back on board. Classic professional wrestling storytelling: the good guy gets beat down for most of the contest, the bad guy cuts off every comeback, catharsis seems impossible until the glorious final moments, crowd goes wild. It was like Bill Watts booked this shit.

3) On a night when his game was bowling-shoe-ugly, Corey Maggette still managed 24 points on 16 shots, plus eight rebounds, a couple of assists and a good number of deflections on D. The guy is just unflappably productive.

4) After a commercial break, Jaymee Sire was talking about Maggette's recent hot streak, and she unleashed this gem: "Don Nelson admitted to me that he had no idea that Maggette was so effective at the three." That is either the inanest lie he's ever told or the scariest acknowledgement of his own biases that I've ever heard. Corey Maggette has been an effective NBA small forward for nine fucking years.

5) No hate on Nellie for this one, though. With Randolph's injury, he had every excuse to revert to smallball; for the most part, he resisted that temptation, playing normal lineups for 37 of our 48 minutes, and saving smallball for moments when the Kings' front line was weak. If we had lost this game, it would have been due to wretched execution by the players, not miscoaching. Nellie was just fine here.

6) Credit to the ESPN recap on this tidbit: this win re-tied the all-time Warriors/Kings series at 178-178. That just feels right.

7) Andris Biedrins looks to be a-okay; last night was the first time where he really looked like his old, mobile self. He looks a damn bit better than Ronny, who was noticeably hobbling even before getting re-injured. It's time for Nellie to re-insert Beans into the starting lineup, give him 30+ minutes every night and call some screen-and-rolls. This guy can really help us.

8) Monta was excellent, and it's nice to see him with a team-best +15 in plus-minus. The dude certainly earned it.

9) Having said that, it's worth paying attention to the play that iced this win. Monta got into his normal tunnel-visiony mode again in the fourth, missing five of eight shots in the final eight minutes; his move that won the game for us was his drive-and-kick-back to Morrow for a three. When that fell, Fitz said triumphantly, "sometimes you have to help your superstar!" True enough. But sometimes, your superstar has to learn how to help himself. Both things happened on that play. And the more Monta weaves himself back into a team-wide offensive attack, the better off we'll be.

10) Morrow's spazzy celebration of his make put a huge smile on my face. There's never been a Warrior that's easier to root for.

Randolph's injury was, of course, not awesome, and is a far bigger negative than any positive that can be drawn from a home-court survival of a fellow also-ran. Good thoughts to Anthony, and to the team, which will be hard-pressed to compete in his absence; our frontcourt situation is once again dire. But while his injury does and indeed should overshadow this win, this win was satisfying. Not all of our clouds come with silver linings.

SAC @ GSW 1/8/10

PreThoughts
Ahh, the Sacramento Kings. Our homely, purply, neighbors up north. Doesn't it seem like the NBA has some franchises way out in the hinterlands? Aside from the stunning fact that San Antonio is the seventh-largest city in the US, Sacramento (37th), Oklahoma City (31st), Memphis (19th), Portland (29th), Indianapolis (14th), and Salt Lake City (136th!), certainly subjectively seem like smallish markets, probably for the lack of another pro franchise, even if they are not actually that small after all, and draw their fans from their entire state or multi-state area. Alas, four of these six teams are in the red, and it's just a matter of time (or crime) before those fratty Maloofs (Malooves?) sell or move.

The Kings have taken some rough losses of late, ceding six of their last seven to good teams, but they should be well-rested tonight and ready to fight at Oracle. There have been some epic scoring salvos between these teams over the last few years, and though this Kings team is quite different internally from last year's, they still score a lot and allow even more. There should be no excuses: Sacramento does not defend three-pointers and shoots free-throws poorly. If the Ws can get their steals, hit a few threes and trade a few dunks for hard fouls, a win should be in order.

As for the players, Tyreke Evans is roughly congruent to Monta Ellis, statistically, and while they both make scads of unforced errors, Ellis' turnovers are the result of doing too much, while Evans is just straight up unrefined. Jason Thompson may some day be a good player, but his ceiling, unlike Anthony Randolph's, is already well-established. Spencer Hawes is on his way to becoming the next Troy Murphy, and Omri Casspi has been playing excellent basketball and is averaging 40 minutes per over his last five games. The Kings strike me as strong and rugged, but most of all young, and less gravely so than the Warriors, what with Stephen-Curry-As-Basketball-Legatee and the prodigal, mercurial Randolph. Until this losing streak, and possibly even still, the Kings have been one of the surprises of the league.

This is a very meaningful game for the Warriors. It's the start of a homestand after a shaky but undeniable road win, against a beatable, nominal rival. I think we're in for some good basketball, Worriers.

Warrior to Watch: Ronny Turiaf, who needs to challenge Thompson, Evans and Greene for 25 hearty minutes.
King to Watch: Beno Udrih, who is quietly having a very efficient year.

Warrior Winning Percentages As Of 1/7/10

Per Basketball Prospectus; an explanation of the stat can be found here. C.J.'s recent swoon has pushed him below the .500 mark, leaving us with only two guys who rate as unequivocally effective players.

Anthony Randolph, .632

Corey Maggette, .561

C.J. Watson, .483

Monta Ellis, .482

Stephen Curry, .440

Andris Biedrins, .413

Anthony Morrow, .412

Chris Hunter, .385

Vladimir Radmanovic, .335*

Ronny Turiaf, .328

* combined GSW/CHA stats

BP's stats are not yet sortable, so I can't say this with 100% confidence, but Anthony Randolph's rating almost certainly has him back in the top 25 in basketball. I don't think he's actually that good, but he is a genuinely good player, and one of our best. At this point, when he gets yanked after a mistake or crapped on in the press, all you can do is shake your head and laugh. Here's hoping he survives this circus, by hook or by crook. He deserves far better.

Not many other shocks here, really. Maggette and C.J. have executed quite well all year. Monta's middling showing shouldn't surprise anyone who's been paying attention, and this is actually the highest he's rated in Win % in a good long while; when you gun despite scoring less efficiently than your teammates and turning it over a lot, you're not likely to win either games or statnerd praise. The system is slowly warming to Curry as he shoots more, but is still not particularly impressed, as he doesn't really rate well in anything except three-point-shooting. Keep lettin' it rain, kid. (The same advice could apply to Morrow, who has grown both more tentative and less efficient in recent weeks.)

All of our non-Randolph bigs rate pretty badly thus far, though obviously Biedrins and Turiaf are still getting their feet wet and will be fine (right?!?!?). Vlad's bad, but not this bad... he'll shoot better again eventually, and the diminished role he's settling into should suit him better. Hunter may possibly be this bad, but even if he is, he has his uses. A reedy team like us would do well to have one guy with the bulk and inclination to smack people.

The basic upshot of these ratings, beyond the usual "MORE RANDOLPH PLZ", is that we really need Andris Biedrins to be Andris Biedrins. If he gets back to his usual form (.620+ each of the last two years), we have the rough outlines of a basketball team. Anything less than that, and both our amount and distribution of talent become untenable. The Minnesota game was his best to date, so we should probably be fine. Still... we Worry.

Goals For This Homestand

As depressing as some recent games have been, better days are, more than likely, just around the corner. Why? We're going to one of the most magical, nourishing places on God's green earth, the veritable womb of the world. Oaaaaklandddd. The word just rolls off the tongue.

Much like last year, we've had to suffer through a schedule frontloaded with travel. We've played more road games than any other team, and fewer home games than any other team... not the easiest task for a young squad, particularly one coached by a turkey. Happily, the most brutal part of the schedule is now officially over, and the sailing should smooth dramatically from here. 28 of the remaining 48 games take place in Oracle, the only arena in which we consistently resemble a basketball team. And Friday kicks off our easiest stretch, a seven-game homestand with zero back-to-backs to wrap up the season's first half:

Friday, 1/8 vs. Sacramento

Monday, 1/11 vs. Cleveland

Wednesday, 1/13 vs. Miami

Friday, 1/15 vs. Milwaukee

Monday, 1/18 vs. Chicago

Wednesday, 1/20 vs. Denver

Friday, 1/22 vs. New Jersey

While LeBron will undoubtedly LeBron us, there's no shortage of beatable teams on this list. 4-3 is a more than reasonable goal. 5-2 is doable. 6-1? Probably not, but crazier things have happened; people don't seem to realize how competitive even crappy Warrior teams can be at home. This homestand could do a lot to dispel the clouds around this season. There's a big difference between 10-31 and 16-25.

But a successful homestand won't just happen. As two brutal losses to the Rockets demonstrated, our Oracle is not powerful enough to counteract terrible coaching and bad execution. Nellie will need to handle things properly to string together some wins. Here are five ways he can tighten up this ship. (In the interests of avoiding monotony, we won't include "less smallball" or "more Randolph" among the five.)

One Size Fitz All

Last night's fizzle out and the subsequent self-pitying response from Bob Fitzgerald pushed me to think a little bit more about how the Warriors are presented by their king philosopher king. Setting aside Jim Barnett for the time being, here are my very impressionistic thoughts on Bob Fitzgerald and his complicity in the continued misery of the Warriors.

Fitzgerald is not a bad broadcaster. His voice has a solid timbre, he doesn't chatter excessively, and years of Warriors ineptitude have forced him and Barnett to get to know the league and to give opposing teams and players their due. Fitzgerald and Barnett can't fairly be accused of homerism in its classic, chauvinistic sense. Sure, they can be less than magnanimous when talking about the opposition, and they clearly want the Warriors to win — this is much is apparent when Fitz squeals with delight and Barnett quivers with didacticism — but overall they're not terrible. They have trying jobs, they know the floor game, and I appreciate their work, most of the time.

But Fitzgerald is not interested in using his knowledge or access to criticize the development of the Warriors. This is no big surprise, as he draws a paycheck from Cohan, but it strikes me as incongruous that he can, especially on his KNBR radio show, profess on the Warriors with ultimate entitlement yet without any sort of proviso, disclaimer or disclosure of his employ of the Warriors. More specifically, he takes the path of least resistance in his coverage; he's not a journalist. For all we might expect from someone who reasonably knows his basketball and watches every Warrior game closely, we get very little substance, and lots of one-dimensional, pedestrian praise of Monta's quickness, Turiaf's fervence, Maggette's ability to draw fouls, etc. These things excite me too, but there's so much more, and it can only be tapped by thinking critically and honestly about the many squalid and entropic levels of the Warriors.

My biggest problem with Fitzgerald is his tone and mien with callers on his radio show. He's condescending and peremptory, and has nothing but contempt for Warriors fans who simply want to know a bit more about goings-on in Oakland. And he dismisses any sort of higher-order discussion of the Warriors with rhetorical agnosticism, red herrings, and militant acquittals for all. I don't claim to know this man's mind, but it strikes me that for Fitzgerald, not only do the Warriors have a plan, but it is so self-evident that it never even needs to be broached or meditated on, and the Warriors exist independent of the past and the future, where any dysfunction is simply the result of injuries and other soft contextual events.

I, like Owen, was charmed and amused by the inclusion of Fitzgerald on the enemies list of Fans Vs. Cohan. He may not be a chief villain in this war, but he is most definitely an enabler, and his obscurantism, appeasement and willful absenteeism from any kind effortful rumination on the current Warriors state of affairs are damning. Finally, it bothers me that Fitzgerald's tenure with the Warriors follows Cohan's very closely — though Tim Roye's does too, and I fucking love the subtle and engaging Tim Roye, the Mario to Fitz's Wario.

GSW @ MIN 1/6/10

PreThoughts

The Wolves are the second-worst team in the league. They're the second-worst team in the league at home... they're just 4-14 in their building. They get outscored by an even ten points a game. They have the league's third-worst offense and the league's seventh-worst defense. They've lost four in a row. And the last time we played them, we beat them by 41 points.

But they can beat us, and don't think they can't. They're 5-12 since Kevin Love came back; we've only gone 3-12 in the same stretch. Their piddling seven wins include two victories over the Jazz and one over the Nuggets -- the real Nuggets, not the B-team we faced last night. They haven't played since Saturday; we're coming off of a draining game at altitude. And the Wolves are eager to erase that 41-point loss. If we are not careful, if we are sloppy, if we are stupid, a loss and a new season lowlight is more than possible.

We will probably come out with some fire, due to anger over last night's loss. And that's good. But that fire must be put to good use. Specifically, we should take care to combat the only thing the Wolves do well: wreaking havoc on the offensive glass. Minnesota is dead-average in defensive rebounding, but grabs a higher percentage of offensive boards than all but seven other teams. Kevin Love is tied with Dwight Howard for the league lead in rebounds per minute, and easily leads the league in offensive rebounds per minute; Al Jefferson ranks in the top 30. This skill of theirs is, in fact, basically the only way they've managed to win the games they have; they've outrebounded their opponents in six out of their seven wins.

The Rich Man's Nellie

The number of Nellie apologists in this world dwindles by the day, but there are still some pretty loud ones. And the refrain they'll most often sing is, "What do you expect? This team is too young, too injured, too low on talent. It's not Nellie's fault we suck -- he's doing the best anyone can do."

Is this possible? Has Nellie's cupboard been so bare that we can't possibly expect more than he's given us for the last year and a half? Is a 38-77 record is actually the best anyone could have possibly managed under the circumstances?

One man, more than any other, demonstrates how ridiculous a notion this is. On October 29th, 2008, Nellie's first game of the post-Baron era, Mike D'Antoni coached his first game for the Knicks. Like Nellie, D'Antoni is an offense-first, sprint-oriented coach. And like Nellie, D'Antoni started the '08-'09 season without the maestro point guard he'd grown accustomed to, and without any accomplished post player through which to direct his offense. (David Lee is, like Biedrins, primarily a screen-and-roll/garbage guy.) D'Antoni has basically been a lame-duck coach since arriving, forced to twiddle his thumbs while Donnie Walsh cuts payroll for this upcoming summer. The Knicks, unlike us, have not been trying to get their coach talent to work with.

In the past year and a half, each coach has had to operate under adverse circumstances; Nellie has coached 115 games, D'Antoni has coached 116. Let's look at the players each coach has had on hand, and the number of games they've played. (Many of these guys have been available for more games than they've played, but trying to account for that will get impossibly thorny.)

GSW @ DEN 1/5/09: PostThoughts

"I'd expect a fairly good Warriors' effort in this game, coming on the heels of Nellie's dopey whip-cracking as it is. But even given the Nuggets' injuries, winning this one might be a little much to ask. We've lost our last four games in this building, and in general we've continued our nasty years-long habit of falling apart late when on the road. I'd expect a competitive game that nonetheless sends us to 9-24."

File this one under "A", for "as advertised."

Classically tragic loss, but count me out of the principled outrage against the refs/league/Freemasons/etc. Monta was stupidly close enough to Smith to make a foul call a realistic possibility, and both Monta and Curry traveled on the go-ahead bucket that preceded the final play. Plus, come on: the Nuggets lost Lawson with an injury with 4:09 remaining, forcing them to play Anthony friggin' Carter, one of the most over-the-hill players in the league. Four minutes to go, we're up four, facing a punchless lineup of Carter, J.R., Joey Graham, K-Mart and Nene. If you blow that, you deserve to lose, no matter what the zebras do or don't do.

Sending complaints to the league office just signals to the franchise that you're okay with how this game was played and coached. And you shouldn't be. To paraphrase a feud whose cobwebs were just recently dusted off: the refs didn't screw us, we screwed us.