March 9, 2010

D-cisions, D-cisions

This summer, whilst sifting through the wreckage of the season, the Golden State braintrust will have to fish or cut bait on several players, by either extending a qualifying offer (if not something more generous) or by letting them walk. The Warriors will clearly work to keep Anthony Morrow in hand, and will at least make an effort to keep C.J. Watson around. More interesting, if less important, will be their decisions on the D-League dudes. To hear the always-brilliant Hoopdata tell it, the Warriors would need to spend $1.25 million to retain Anthony Tolliver and $1.03 million to retain Chris Hunter. Reggie Williams is still on his initial ten-day contract; if the Dubs lock him up for the year, he'd be in line for a similar $1+ M qualifying offer.

Let's screen these scrumptious scrubs. Who should the Warriors retain? Who will they retain?

Chris Hunter
Per 36: 12.1 points (.501 TS%), 7.6 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.2 turnovers, 0.5 steals, 1.7 blocks, 6.8 fouls
Positives: Hunter's been able and willing to mix it up underneath, on a team that's sorely needed that -- his shot-blocking numbers are solid. His foul frequency is not necessarily a negative, as he's been explicitly deployed as an enforcer at times; if any Warrior should have a high foul rate, it's Hunter. He's passed pretty well for an inexperienced big, and he gets to the line decently often given how rarely he shoots. He seems like a prince of a guy. And his on-court/off-court stats and his RAPM showing indicate that the Warriors have been more effective on both ends when Hunter has played...
Negatives: ...in minutes too scant and context-dependent to draw any conclusions with confidence. Things we can conclude with confidence: Hunter is neither a frequent nor an efficient scorer, and he's a significantly below-average rebounder for a center. That's not a combo you like to see in a big man.
Should They Re-Sign Him? Probably not. The plus-minus data suggests that he may be a bit better than his production, but no bigs with production like this ever rise to the level of "good". It wouldn't be a tragedy to plant him at the very end of the bench... there are worse players in the league. There are also better ways to spend a million bucks.
Will They Re-Sign Him? Doubtful. Expect his bench big spot to go to a big, for better or (in the case of another Mikki type) for worse.

Anthony Tolliver
Per 36: 12.5 points (.502 TS%), 7.5 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.1 turnovers, 0.7 steals, 0.8 blocks, 2.9 fouls
Positives: Tolliver is a stretch four, an extremely valuable type of player in the current NBA. Like Hunter, he seems to be a well-liked and high-character guy; like Hunter, he fares quite by plus-minus. And he boasts some surprisingly good results in small areas: he's done an impressive job of avoiding fouls for a big man, and his 1.96 assist/turnover ratio is the second-best on the best behind CJ's. Tolliver is a piece that seems to fit the Warriors well.
Negatives: Trouble is, he's really not much of a piece; even with his occasional big games, he posts scoring and rebounding numbers that are essentially identical to Hunter's (though as a four, the rebounding bar for Tolliver is not quite as high). Tolliver would need to be an elite three-point shooter to be really interesting, and with a .333 mark in college, a .371 mark in the D-League and a .338 mark in the NBA, there's no real indication that he is one.
Should They Re-Sign Him? An unenthusiastic yes. Floor-stretching bigs, even bad ones, have their uses.
Will They Re-Sign Him? Yes. And given the risk that he'll get playing time over superior players in Randolph and Wright, it may be a re-signing Warriors fans come to despise.

Reggie Williams
Per 36: 19.4 points (.595 TS%), 4.6 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 1.5 turnovers, 0.6 steals, 0.3 blocks, 1.8 fouls
Positives: THIS GUY'S FUCKING AWESOME!!!!!!!!!!
Negatives: It's only been five games. There's no indication that he can play any defense whatsoever. The Warriors have over eighty other swingmen, all of whom can score.
Should They Re-Sign Him? Without question. All of the quibbles above are relevant: the sample size is tiny, he looks to be a horrible defender, and he plays a position that's already laughably overstocked as it stands. But bad teams need to stockpile assets, and Williams, a guy who has excelled and over-achieved at every level in Curry-like fashion, looks for all the world like an asset. The Warriors should lock him in for next season and worry about the details later.
Will They Re-Sign Him? Probably... he plays the style that the team (over)values. However, we can't rule out the possibility that the front office will idiotically refuse to renounce the rights to Devean George or Raja Bell, forcing Williams back into the minors (and, in short order, onto another NBA roster).

#63: GSW @ NOH 3/8/10

PostThoughts -- Hornets 135, Warriors 131
A blast of a loss. That's not to say these losses don't hurt... it would've been nice to see the guys' effort be rewarded with a win at some point during this road trip. But in the scheme of things, with Wall and Turner looming ever larger, an outcome like this is damn near optimal. Morrow, Devean and REGGIE~! all had comically effective games. Curry did not, and has quietly posted five poor performances in his last six outings... however, the kid's gassed beyond belief and receiving more defensive attention than he ever has, so it's probably nothing to worry about.

Given the all-around hot shooting and decimation of the front line, it's forgivable, but worth noting all the same: the Warriors' total of 23 rebounds was the lowest total by any NBA team in a game this season. And if you're wondering, yes, dem Dubs are again on pace to be the worst-rebounding team in league history, edging Nellie's Warriors of twenty years ago.

Winless though it was, this was probably the Warriors' best-played road trip of the year: four competitive performances against good teams, with the only dud coming in one of the three or four least winnable games of the season. Thursday brings a four-game homestand that looks breezy in comparison, with three beatable opponents (Portland, Toronto, these Hornets) and zero back-to-backs. Even with lottery balls in mind, it'd be nice to see the Warriors take two of these four games. The players and fans deserve a few smiles, even if Cohan and his cohort do not.

March 6, 2010

#62: GSW @ CHA 3/6/10

Charlotte Bobcats
Record: 29-31 (20th) • Point Differential: +0.4 (15th) • Pace: 90.6 (27th)
Off. Efficiency: 103.6 (t-25th) • eFG: 48.8 (t-21st) • TO: 17.3 (30th) • OReb: 25.9 (20th) • FT/FG: 25.8 (t-3rd)
Def. Efficiency: 103.1 (6th) • eFG: 49.5 (t-12th) • TO: 16.9 (3rd) • OReb: 25.4 (8th) • FT/FG: 20.0 (t-3rd)

PreThoughts
The Warriors' road record is what one might call "gross" -- at 4-26, they're exactly one game ahead of the Nets. Winning away from home is no easy feat for a young and undermanned team, but if you ever want to be worth a damn, you've got to break through and beat the odds every now and again. Today, against a flawed and slumping Bobcats team, seems as good a time as any. Last time the Dubs came to this building, Jamal Crawford lit 'em up for fifty.

On the other hand, the Warriors' last game against these fuckers was none too pretty. The 'Cats are a game out of eighth, and will be plenty motivated. And they excel at coaxing turnovers and fouls out of their opponents, two things the Warriors have been all too happy to relinquish. Plus, you've got to figure Jack wouldn't mind clowning the Dubs again in front of his new fanbase. The Warriors will need a very big night from someone to pull out a win here.

This game features an interesting X-factor: Curry and Morrow grew up in Charlotte. Morrow got eight shot-free minutes in the Warriors' visit last year, but both will essentially be appearing in their hometown as established NBA players for the first time. Will they excel in front of their loved ones, or buckle under the pressure?

Warrior To Watch: Stephen Curry, who has again wrested this label away from all comers for a bit.
Bobcat To Watch: Tyrus Thomas, a Randolphian enigma who has profited greatly from his recent change of scenery. We can only hope that our skinny shot-blocking goofball will not require the same transition.

March 5, 2010

#61: GSW @ ATL 3/5/10

Atlanta Hawks
Record: 39-21 (6th) • Point Differential: +4.8 (t-5th) • Pace: 90.8 (26th)
Off. Efficiency: 111.3 (4th) • eFG: 50.2 (t-11th) • TO: 13.0 (1st) • OReb: 27.6 (t-6th) • FT/FG: 21.9 (t-20th)
Def. Efficiency: 106.0 (13th) • eFG: 49.8 (16th) • TO: 15.7 (12th) • OReb: 27.0 (19th) • FT/FG: 20.5 (t-6th)

PreThoughts
Let's see here... on the road, against a good team that's playing well and sore over losing to the Warriors two weeks ago? Yeah, this'll be a long one. At least we're likely to get some more sweet Reggie Williams action... Maggette may be back, but doesn't figure to play much.

Warrior To Watch: Stephen Curry, who has yet to put up a really effective game in this sans-Monta go-around. With Mike Bibby and Jamal Crawford guarding him, that could easily change tonight.

Hawk To Watch: Joe Smith, just for a nostalgic chuckle.

March 3, 2010

#60: GSW @ ORL 3/3/10

Orlando Magic
Record: 41-20 (3rd) • Point Differential: +5.8 (3rd) • Pace: 92.7 (t-15th)
Off. Efficiency: 109.3 (9th) • eFG: 52.6 (3rd) • TO: 15.3 (12th) • OReb: 23.6 (26th) • FT/FG: 25.0 (t-6th)
Def. Efficiency: 103.1 (4th) • eFG: 47.7 (t-3rd) • TO: 14.1 (26th) • OReb: 22.7 (t-1st) • FT/FG: 20.8 (8th)

PreThoughts
As poetic as we've been waxing about the current Warriors lineup, there's just no way to forecast a competitive game here. The Magic are 23-6 at home, and only one of those six losses came at the ends of a sub-.500 team... the Wizards caught them on a Caron Butler buzzer-beater in a wacky game last month. These guys don't wreak much havoc on the offensive boards, but they do everything else very well. And since both Atlanta and Boston are within three games of catching Orlando for the second seed in the East, the Magic still have plenty to play for. The Warriors would need monster shooting nights from both Curry and Morrow to take this one, and even that might not do it. Tonight, the Magnificent Eight are simply outgunned.

Warrior To Watch: Chris Hunter. Someone will need to man up to Dwight Howard, and Ronny just doesn't have the beef to do it. Hunter does, and he's shown a willingness to smack big intimidating dudes. Look for a nice hard first-half foul to get the Warriors fired up.

Magician To Watch: Dwight Howard. He still isn't good at hitting free throws and passing out of double teams... that's an attackable combo. But the Warriors don't have enough bodies to play Hack-A-Howard, so he could have a pretty monster night.